It’s must-win time for Mac Jones and the New England Patriots, and for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, as the teams face off in the NFL Week 14 edition of Monday Night Football. 

The Patriots (6-6) are one game out of the final spot in the AFC Playoff race, with all three AFC East rivals ahead of them. One more loss puts the final nail in the 2022 NFL betting season for the Cardinals (4-8). 

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The Patriots vs. Cardinals point spread has shifted dramatically, with New England moving from an NFL line of +1.5 at the start of the week to -1.5 now. The Over/Under for total points has risen slightly to 43.5. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on 61.7% of his NFL best bets all season, including 10-1 the last two weeks – reveals his best plays for this critical MNF matchup. 

Patriots vs. Cardinals Point Spread Pick

When the Patriots are supposed to win, they win, 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite on betting apps this season. The Cardinals have been atrocious on Monday nights, covering just two of their last 12 games. 

I focus less on trends and more on matchups. Almost across the board, New England has advantages, albeit slight ones. That includes in the trenches when either team has the ball, and definitely includes coaching. Laying 1.5 points with New England is the play for Monday night. 

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Patriots vs. Cardinals Over/Under Best Bet

The Over has been highly profitable on betting sites in Cardinals games, hitting in all of them since Week 7. That’s because they rank 31st in points allowed. At home they’re giving up 29 ppg, the most in the NFL. The Pats are more of an Under lean. 

We lean with how the Cardinals lean. Only one of New England’s last five games has totaled 40, but Arizona is scoring and should get better offensively with Marquise Brown back to full strength. The Cards don’t stop anyone. In its last four games, New England has scored 10 points twice and 26 points twice. If we’re speculating which Pats offense will show up, we’re going to lean toward the productive one. Over is a sound choice for MNF. 

Patriots vs. Cardinals Moneyline Pick

New England is at -125 on the moneyline, so it would take a $125 wager to win $100 in profit. Arizona is +105. But the Cardinals are just 1-6 at home this season and have dropped four of five. 

New England has lost two straight but that was against teams a combined 19-5. Against sub-.500 teams they’ve fared much better. A steady, balanced attack should do the trick for Mac Jones. Back the Pats to win straight-up. 

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Best Patriots vs. Cardinals Player Props

Hunter Henry, Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜

Henry has been inconsistent in production. Three of the last six games he’s managed just one reception, but had 4-5 catches in two of the others, for 50 and 63 yards. Monday’s matchup offers a good chance for one of the latter efforts. Arizona is by far the NFL’s worst TE-covering team, accounting for the most yards and most TDs at the position. 

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Nelson Agholor, Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at FanDuel ➜

Arizona’s defense is serviceable vs. the run but not against the pass. It ranks 26th in yards allowed and only the Chiefs have given up more passing TDs per game. Mac Jones’ last two games have totaled his highest number of pass attempts; he passed for 382 yards in one of the games. With Jacobi Meyers out, Agholor stands to see ample targets. Three receptions should do it.