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Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 5 mins

Next NFL Head Coach To Be Fired Odds: Matt Rhule On Hot Seat

Next NFL Head Coach To Be Fired Odds: Matt Rhule On Hot Seat

Few jobs in sports are as fickle as NFL head coach. Even those with the best pedigrees may get only two or three seasons to prove they’re worthy of another contract. Some may not even get that (sorry Urban Meyer). 

It’s also very possible, if not likely, a coach on the hot seat won’t even get a full year to turn things around. Since 2000, a span of 22 seasons, 34 head coaches have been fired midseason. 

Some coaches are on the bubble before Week 1 and others get on it before long. Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his preseason NFL odds for which coach will get the hook first during the 2022 NFL season. 

Next NFL Coach To Be Fired Odds

Coach Team Odds Implied Probability
Matt Rhule Panthers +300 25%
Ron Rivera Commanders +500 16.7%
Mike McCarthy Cowboys +700 12.5%
Frank Reich Colts +750 11.8%
Kevin Stefanski Browns +800 11.1%
Pete Carroll Seahawks +1000 9.1%
Dan Campbell Lions +1000 9.1%
Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals +1000 9.1%
The Field N/A +550 15.4%

This hypothetical NFL betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps. It has been created by Bookies.com.


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In recent seasons, those expected to be let go first have been the ones who did get let go first. Last year was a massive exception. The Jaguars’ Urban Meyer was fired in Week 15, in just his first year in the position. That move was considered so unlikely that Meyer didn’t even have odds in the initial betting market before the start of last season. 

Six other coaches were let go in January following the end of the 2021 NFL regular season. 

In 2020, the favorites dominated. Washington’s Jay Gruden was the most likely to be let go at +300, and he got his walking papers in October. Giants coach Pat Shurmur was at +500 and lost his gig the Monday following the regular-season finale.

Matt Rhule, Panthers, +300

To nobody’s surprise, Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule is the solid favorite to lose his position before his peers. He’s only been on the job for two seasons and star RB Christian McCaffrey has been unreliable due to injuries for both of them.  

Both seasons have been disasters – 5-12 in 2021, 5-11 the year prior – and Rhule, considered an offensive guru and mentor to QBs, hasn’t been able to turn the corner with Sam Darnold, Cam Newton or anyone else under center. Rhule and new QB Baker Mayfield might be getting their final opportunities this season to show they can lead a contending team. 

RELATED: 2022 NFL Preseason Odds For Week 1 And Beyond

Ron Rivera, Commanders, +500

The Commanders haven’t taken that next step under Ron Rivera, though he’s been there just two seasons. Washington has exactly seven wins in four of the last five seasons. The defense took a massive step backward in 2021. 

Carson Wentz is now leading the QB room, which hardly fills us with confidence that a successful season is forthcoming for the Commanders.


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Mike McCarthy, Cowboys, +700

Mike McCarthy has showed remarkable improvement in two seasons in Big D, taking a team from 6-10 (Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury was a big factor) to 12-5 and the Cowboys’ first playoff berth since 2018. And yet most pundits believe McCarthy is on the hot seat to get Dallas to yet-another level, and in a hurry. 

That former Saints coach Sean Payton hopes to return to coaching in 2023, and that Dallas owner Jerry Jones has been vocal about his admiration of Payton, doesn’t help. 

RELATED: NFL Week 1 Odds And Betting Lines For Every Game

Frank Reich, Colts, +750

Frank Reich has had four seasons with the Colts, all modestly competitive with two playoff berths. And in all four seasons, he's had a different starting QB, with a fifth this year in Matt Ryan. Anything less than an AFC South division title and another playoff berth may force a change. 

Last year's choke job against Jacksonville in Week 18 was desperately disappointing, costing the Colts a playoff place, and it warmed up Reich's seat.


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Other Contenders

There are a few other surprises early on. Dan Campbell has had just one season in Detroit, guiding the Lions to a 3-13-1 record, though reviews were positive after Year One. The Lions haven’t won more than six games since 2017. 

Meanwhile, Pete Carroll has been in Seattle since 2010 with two Super Bowl appearances and one win. But last year was a 7-10 bust and with no Russell Wilson, the Seahawks seem to be facing a rebuilding campaign. Carroll, 70, may not be the man to lead it. He’s more likely to retire than be fired, though. 

The Field has several viable contenders, including the Falcons’ Arthur Smith and the Jets’ Robert Saleh


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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.