Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 19 mins

2021 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker

2021 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker
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Super Bowl bets are the most popular form of NFL futures betting, but it isn’t the only one. AFC & NFC conference title odds are heavily bet, but NFL divisional futures have grown in popularity, too. With just four available teams in each market, NFL division odds have become a go-to futures bet, not only during the offseason, but during the weekly grind of the NFL season. Bookies.com tracks odds to win all eight divisions for the 2021 NFL season.

Odds to Win the AFC East

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Buffalo Bills-225-150
New England Patriots+350+350
Miami Dolphins+550+350
New York Jets+5000+2500

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Here are some notes on the AFC East odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The Bills, Patriots and Dolphins are all 1-1, but Buffalo surged to -225 after a 35-0 win at Miami. The Patriots rose from +380 to +350, but the Dolphins tumbled to +500 from +225.
  • Sept. 14: The odds on the Bills loosened a bit, from -150 to -120, after a Week 1 loss to the Steelers. The Dolphins beat the Patriots, so they found separation after each being +350. Never bet on the Jets.
  • Sept. 7: Odds tightened a bit on the Bills, as they rose to -160. Miami slipped from +325 to +350, in line with their Week 1 opponent New England.
  • Aug. 31: Another Patriots move seemingly anticipated by oddsmakers. Cam Newton is cut, elevating rookie Mac Jones to QB 1. Odds stay at +350.
  • Aug. 25: The Patriots' odds remain unchanged after they trade running back Sony Michel to the LA Rams. It leaves Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and James White in the New England backfield.
  • Aug. 21: Buoyed by the impressive preseason play of Tua Tagovailoa, and the questions at QB for the Patriots, Miami leaps over New England for the No. 2 spot on the AFC East odds board. Buffalo holds strong as the division favorite.
  • March 15: The Patriots add weapons to the pass game, as their odds dip from +450 to +395 at top sportsbooks. The Dolphins’ odds rise to +380 at the same time.
  • Feb. 10: After ending the Patriots’ 11-year reign at the top of the division, the Bills broke through to win the title in 2021 and were installed as -150 favorites to do it again.

For the first time in more than a decade, the Patriots didn’t enter a new season as the defending AFC East champions. The Bills were the team to take the title, led by QB Josh Allen, whose breakout season earned him NFL MVP runner-up honors and the Bills a 13-3 record, winning the division by three games over the Dolphins.

Miami went 10-6 behind the surprising play of rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa. New England (7-9) floundered in its first season in decades without Tom Brady. Cam Newton struggled to connect, but the Patriots reloaded in the offseason. The Jets won only two games and begin a new era with Zach Wilson at QB.


Odds to Win the AFC North

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Baltimore Ravens+100+115
Cleveland Browns+155+150
Pittsburgh Steelers+500+500
Cincinnati Bengals+2500+2500

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Here are some notes on the AFC North odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: Some shift in the numbers but nothing substantial. Baltimore beat Kansas City in Week 2, which helped the Ravens in AFC Conference and Super Bowl markets. The Browns won and the Steelers lost. Each moved accordingly. Pittsburgh fell from +300 back to +500. There might be value there on top betting apps.
  • Sept. 14: Steelers backers may have grabbed a bargain before Pittsburgh beat Buffalo and saw its price fall from +500 to +300. The Browns and Ravens both lost in Week 1, but their prices tightened a bit in relation to one and another.
  • Sept. 7: The Ravens stabilize and rise back to +110 from +115 as they work out potential running backs to replace J.K Dobbins. Meanwhile, Steelers backers sober up a bit as their team falls from +450 to +500.
  • Aug. 28: Ravens lose their starting RB, J.K Dobbins, to an ACL tear but oddsmakers keep them at +115 - for now.
  • Feb. 10: The Steelers enter as defending AFC North champions, but NFL sportsbook oddsmakers don’t expect a repeat. They open at +380, behind both the Ravens and Browns.

No division was more competitive at the top than the AFC North, which had three teams finish between 12-4 and 11-5. The Steelers won the battle for the crown, one game in front of the Ravens and Browns.

All three teams can make a claim for the 2021 AFC North. The Steelers should have one of the best defenses in the NFL and added rookie Najee Harris to revive a stagnant run offense. The Ravens went 15-1 in 2019 and if Lamar Jackson re-finds his form, they’re rightful favorites. The Browns are coming off their best season in decades and are seemingly still ascending.

2021 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker 1

Odds to Win the AFC South

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Tennessee Titans-185-120
Indianapolis Colts+190+180
Jacksonville Jaguars+2100+550
Houston Texans+2100+2800

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Here are some notes on the AFC South odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The Titans (-105 to -185) got some separation from the Colts (+140 to +190) after a comeback overtime win at Seattle. The Colts, meanwhile, fell to 0-2 and got Carson Wentz injured in the process.
  • Sept. 14: Minimal movement of note near the top since both Indy and Tennessee lost. But the Texans saw their price cut in nearly in half from +2500 to +1300 after a rout of the Jaguars.
  • Sept. 7: Heading into Week 1, the Titans remain the firm favorite at -115 after a wild offseason of switching spots with the snakebit Colts.
  • July 30: The Colts’ AFC South odds rise to +140 and the Titans’ odds fall to -150, following an injury to Indy QB Carson Wentz. He’s declared out indefinitely. Wentz underwent ankle surgery on Aug. 2.
  • June 7: Tennessee’s odds drop from +130 to +110 on betting sites after the acquisition of All-Pro WR Julio Jones, in a near-tie with Indianapolis.
  • Feb. 10: The Titans and Colts each finished 11-5 to tie for the AFC South crown, but it’s Tennessee that opens as preseason favorites.

The Colts and Titans each went 11-5 in 2020, and oddsmakers predict another two-team race. Each added a key offseason piece to offer hope. Indianapolis traded for QB Carson Wentz to replace the retired Philip Rivers and add potential scoring punch to a defense-first squad. Tennessee acquired WR Julio Jones, a move that gives the Titans one of the more prolific offenses.

The Texans went 4-12 last year and are projected by many to be the NFL’s worst team, top to bottom, in 2021. The Jaguars, who were the worst team last season at 1-15, begin the Trevor Lawrence Era, but it will take time.


Odds to Win the AFC West

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Kansas City Chiefs-225-250
Denver Broncos+600+600
Las Vegas Raiders+700+1400
LA Chargers+700+450

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Here are some notes on the AFC West odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The Raiders and Broncos are the lone undefeated teams in the AFC after two weeks. But the Chiefs didn’t lose much ground here. The Broncos slid up from +600 to +500, while the Raiders leapt from +1500 to +700.
  • Sept. 14: All four teams in the division won in Week 1. The Broncos made a strong move from +700 to +500.
  • July 26: The Broncos odds rise back to +600 once it’s clear Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay.
  • May 3: Amidst a report that Aaron Rodgers wants out of Green Bay, the Broncos are rumored to be the most likely destination. Denver’s divisional odds plummet from +1500 down to +550, and eventually to +400. The Chiefs’ odds rise slightly, from -400 to -300, eventually moving to -250.
  • Feb. 10: The Kansas City Chiefs open as big favorites to win the AFC West for the sixth consecutive season. The Los Angeles Chargers, led by 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert, are next on the chart.

The road to the AFC West goes through Kansas City, which has had a top-6 offense each of the past four years. The Chiefs weren’t challenged at all for the division crown; their 14-2 record was a whopping six games better than the second-place Raiders (8-8).

That could change this year, to some extent. The Chargers (7-9 in 2020) were plagued by injury on defense but should be better on that side of the ball and have Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert under center. The Raiders have improved their record in each of Jon Gruden’s three seasons as coach. And the Broncos have many pieces in place – if a QB emerges to lead the charge.

Despite all that, there is a reason the Chiefs are massive favorites for the AFC West heading into the 2021 NFL season. They also remain the outright favorites to win Super Bowl 56 at most sportsbooks.


Odds to Win the NFC East

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Dallas Cowboys-130+130
Washington Football Team+350+230
Philadelphia Eagles+350+550
New York Giants+900+450

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Here are some notes on the NFC East odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The Cowboys won at the gun at Los Angeles and moved into negative territory to win this tepid division, moving from +135 to -130. Washington (+200 last week) and Philly (+500) pulled into a tie.
  • Sept. 14: The Cowboys lost their opener to Tampa Bay but saw their price improve slightly from +150 to +135. The injury to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick pushed Washington back to +250 from +200 despite a Week 1 win at the top betting apps.
  • Sept. 7: A less-than-stellar preseason leaves the Cowboys as the favorite at +150, but Washington continues to see its odds shorten since picking up Ryan Fitzpatrick.
  • March 21: Washington overtakes Philadelphia on the board after signing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to replace the retired Alex Smith, with odds dropping to under +300 on most betting apps.
  • March 17: The Eagles trade QB Carson Wentz to the Colts, presumably handing the offense to second-year QB Jalen Hurts. Philly’s NFC East odds rise from +300 to +400, and eventually to +550.
  • Feb. 10: The Cowboys, presumably led by QB Dak Prescott after he missed most of 2020 due to injury, open as favorites to take the NFC East.

Alex Smith returned from his gruesome leg injury, leading Washington to a 6-1 record down the stretch and an improbable postseason berth. But the team only went 7-9 overall – nobody in the NFC East finished even .500.

However, both the Cowboys and Giants, who finished 6-10 last season, have reason for hope. Dallas gets QB Dak Prescott and New York will have RB Saquon Barkley – each missed most of 2020 due to injury. Washington still has a top-five defense and an ultimate wild card at QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick.

2021 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker 2

Odds to Win the NFC North

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Green Bay Packers-225-160
Chicago Bears+400+550
Minnesota Vikings+450+250
Detroit Lions+4000+2800

Odds via BetMGM, and current as of Sept. 21. Check out our BetMGM sportsbook review.

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Here are some notes on the NFC North odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The Packers temporarily stopped the panic with a win over the Lions at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers moved up to -225 from -165. The Bears and Vikings flipped places, with Minnesota falling to +450 from +250. That could be a value play here.
  • Sept. 14: The odds remained static after all four teams in the division lost in Week 1.
  • July 28: Rodgers shows up in Green Bay and reveals he will play for the Packers in 2021. Green Bay’s NFC North futures odds plummet to -180. Minnesota remains at +250 but Chicago’s chances take a big hit to +550.
  • July 24: With no signs of Rodgers in Green Bay, the Vikings surpass the Packers on NFC North futures.
  • May 3: It is reported on NFL Draft night that Aaron Rodgers had a falling out with Packers management and requested a trade. Green Bay’s NFC North odds rise, from -250 to -110. The Vikings drop to +225 while the Bears make the biggest move after using a first-round pick on QB Justin Fields, from +650 to +325.
  • Feb. 10: The Green Bay Packers, who went 14-2 before falling in the NFC Championship Game, are installed as heavy +125 favorites to repeat in the NFC North. The Vikings are at +400.

Those who like to take a leap on speculation had their chances in the NFC North futures market this offseason. After going 14-2 and coming up one possession short in the NFC title game, the Green Bay Packers were strongly favored to repeat in the division in 2021. But Aaron Rodgers’ offseason trade demands and silent treatment offered opportunities.

The Vikings, who massively underachieved on their way to a 7-9 record, were seen as the top challengers to the Packers’ throne. Chicago, led by a strong defense and with the drafting of Ohio State star QB Justin Fields, also got a bump as the Packers’ odds rose.

When Rodgers announced his return, odds flipped. But those who got Green Bay in the meantime secured great odds on the strong preseason favorite.


Odds to Win the NFC South

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-260-200
New Orleans Saints+440+350
Carolina Panthers+500+1000
Atlanta Falcons+3000+900

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Here are some notes on the NFC South odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The Panthers and Bucs are undefeated. Tampa Bay remains a solid favorite here at -260, while the Panthers shot up to +500 after being +950 last week. The Saints held their No. 2 spot here, moving down from +330 to +440.
  • Sept. 14: The Saints made a strong move from +440 to +330 after crushing the Packers 38-3 behind 5 TD passes from Jameis Winston. The Falcons tumbled from +850 to +1500 after an embarrassing home loss to the Eagles.
  • Sept. 7: Not only do the Bucs return all 22 starters who won Super Bowl 55, they're all healthy and ready to play in Week 1. Meanwhile, everyone on the team, including Tom Brady, is fully vaccinated. Tampa Bay's odds shorten from -190 to -240 and the rest of the division reacts accordingly.
  • June 7: Talent leaves the division as All-Pro WR Julio Jones is traded by the Falcons to the Titans.
  • Feb. 10: Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl and open as favorites to win the NFC South. The Saints, who must replace one of the greats in QB Drew Brees, are solidly behind.

Tom Brady’s first season with the Buccaneers ended with another ring on his hand and another notch in one of the great sports legacies of all time. With all 22 starters locked into the 2021 season, it came as no surprise that the Bucs would be strong preseason favorites to repeat in the NFC South.

Among the other reasons for the Buccaneers’ status as the team to beat in the division: Their closest competition, the Saints, are dealing with the replacement of Brees, the defensive woes of the Falcons and rebuilding status of the Panthers.

2021 NFL Divisional Odds Tracker 3

Odds to Win the NFC West

TeamCurrent OddsPreseason Odds
San Francisco 49ers+175+180
LA Rams+180+190
Seattle Seahawks+375+275
Arizona Cardinals+475+650

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Here are some notes on the NFC West odds movement.

  • Sept. 21: The best division in the NFL is also the closest at the top. The 49ers and Rams pulled tighter despite entering the week at +180 and +200, respectively. There should be movement this week, since the Rams play host to Tampa Bay and the 49ers visit the Packers at Lambeau.
  • Sept. 14:The division went 4-0 in Week 1. The Rams pulled into a tie at +200 to win the division with San Francisco after each team won in Week 1. The 49ers slipped from +180 while the Rams held at +200. The Seahawks (+275) and Cardinals (+600) also saw their prices shrink.
  • Aug. 25: The Rams drop back to +200 after the team trades for running back Sony Michel from the New England Patriots. The 49ers once again lead the division as favorite.
  • Aug. 22: The Niners fall slightly while the Rams rise slightly, creating a stalemate atop the NFC West futures. The Seahawks have remained steady at +275 since odds were revealed.
  • March 29: The 49ers move up to the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Assuming they’re getting a QB, the Niners’ odds fall to a virtual tie with the Rams. Oddsmakers are proven right when they use the pick on QB Trey Lance.
  • Feb. 10: The Los Angeles Rams are installed as opening-line favorites after acquiring QB Matthew Stafford for the Lions in a trade agreed to in January. The 49ers and Seahawks aren’t far behind.

If there is one division in which all four teams could stake a claim in the conversation for the title, it’s the NFC West. Last year, the Seahawks went 12-4 and clinched the crown thanks mostly to the heroics of QB Russell Wilson. The Rams went 11-5 mainly due to the inconsistent play of QB Jared Goff. The Cardinals took a next step behind QB Kyler Murray and coach Kliff Kingsbury to an 8-8 mark. And the 49ers, besieged by injuries on both sides of the ball, slipped to 6-10.

Each non-title-winning team took offseason steps to catch Seattle. Los Angeles traded for QB Matthew Stafford; the Cardinals added talent all across the defense, including three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt; the 49ers return a wealth of talent

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.