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Most Bet On Week 9 NFL Games: Odds Move As Big Names Go Missing

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 8 mins

Most Bet On Week 9 NFL Games: Odds Move As Big Names Go Missing

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The NFL betting calendar reaches its halfway point this week. Injuries and other absences have begun to impact oddsmakers at betting sites and sportsbooks. And bettors need to be wary, but not completely paralyzed.

Next man up.

Among the Week 1 starting QBs who aren’t playing this week: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Zach Wilson and Andy Dalton. Dallas QB Dak Prescott is expected to play, but missed last week. Russell Wilson, who is hurt, and Brady are on the bye.

RELATED: NFL Week 9 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game

And it’s not just quarterbacks. RB Derrick Henry leads the NFL in yards rushing and TDs. But he’s gone for an indefinite period due to a foot injury suffered in Week 8. RB James White was lost to the Patriots for 2021 due to a hip injury in Week 3. WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas won’t see any more action this season, while Calvin Ridley has stepped away from football to focus on his mental wellbeing. Tampa Bay tight end Rob Gronkowski missed four games for the Bucs and only briefly played last week against the Saints. He hasn’t caught a pass since September.

COVID continues to ravage rosters. Green Bay was without Davante Adams last week and will be without Rodgers against the Chiefs due to the virus. Giants running back Saquon Barkley was also sidelined this week due to a positive test.

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Packers-Chiefs, Titans-Rams Take Hit

Most Bet On Week 9 NFL Games: Odds Move As Big Names Go Missing 1

The Packers at Chiefs game scheduled for Sunday once had Super Bowl preview potential. The Chiefs decided to tank for the first half of the season. They are 4-4, and sit in last place in the AFC West. The Chiefs continue to siphon money from the betting public. Kansas City is 4-15 in its last 19 games ATS and just 2-6 this season. The projected Mahomes–Rodgers matchup also offered another chapter in the argument of, “Who Is The Best QB Not Named Tom Brady?” But it must wait.

Before the Rodgers news, the Chiefs were 1-point favorites. The line quickly ballooned to 8, before some sharp money pushed it back to 7 or 7.5, depending on the book. The total fell from 54.5 to 47.5 (-110) at DraftKings.

RELATED: NFL Week 9 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

The Titans at Rams game Sunday carried a Super Bowl-air when it was first scheduled. In another time, it would have delivered a huge betting handle. Tennessee is on a rampage, having beaten Buffalo, Kansas City and Indianapolis. The loss of Henry – who has been “replaced” by Adrian Peterson – means a whole new ballgame for the Titans. Trying to contain the Rams and keep them off the field without Henry’s ability to eat yards and clock will be a monstrous challenge.

The loss of Henry has added three points to this spread, which now sits at LA -7.5 (-107) at PointsBet.

While week-to-week or in-game bettors bettors can easily adapt to injuries, futures bettors must always be wary of their impact and price their wagers accordingly.

Enough school work for one day.

Week 9 Betting Trends

Most Bet On Week 9 NFL Games: Odds Move As Big Names Go Missing 2

NFC Edge Over AFC

There are eight interconference games out of 14 on the schedule this week. The NFC is 21-16 ATS against the AFC thus far in 2021. In those 37 games, the under has hit 23 times.

Here’s a look at the NFC vs AFC contests and their odds in Week 9 listed with the betting public consensus on the spread and the total:

Game OddsConsensusTotal
NE at CARNE -3.573% NE41
LV at NYGLV -2.580% LV46
MIN at BALBAL -679% BAL50
DEN at DALDAL -1063% DAL49.5
LAC at PHILAC -2.580% LAC50.5
GB at KCKC -7.562% GB47.5
TEN at LARLAR -7.574% LAR54
CHI at PITPIT -6.555% PIT40

Extreme Situations

The 2021 season has served both healthy portions of blowouts and nail-biters. Thus far, there have been 23 games in which the final margin of victory was at least 21 points. Conversely, 32 games have been decided by three points or less, including five in Week 8.

Closing-line underdogs at sportsbooks went 10-4-1 in Week 8. After 121 games in 2021, underdogs hold a 67-53-1 (54.2%) edge ATS .

Oddsmakers have given bettors two games this week with double-digit spreads and five more that are at least a touchdown in size. There are also four games on the slate with a spread of a field goal or less, so all is not lost for late-game heroics when making your NFL picks.

Public Plays – Week 9

Biggest Spread Liabilities

Four games carry significant exposure. Here are the Week 9 games with at least 75% of the spread handle on the favorite based on our consensus analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings:

Game Favorite Handle
MIN at BAL BAL -5.5 82%
LAC at PHI LAC -2 79%
BUF at JAX BUF -14.5 80%
LV at NYG LV -3 75%

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QUARTERBACK BEST BETS : Ranking Every NFL QB Against The Spread

Major Line Movements

Most Bet On Week 9 NFL Games: Odds Move As Big Names Go Missing 3

Here’s an NFL odds recap of the games that have seen their lines move three or more points (in addition to the two games detailed above):

Broncos at Cowboys

Opening Line: Cowboys -7

Current Line: Cowboys -10

The Buzz: This line was initially set when Prescott was out and Cooper Rush had yet to upset Minnesota in his first NFL start last Sunday night. The overall play of the Cowboys defense and the likely return of Prescott, who has practiced all week, was worth three points in the Cowboys’ favor. Dallas is 7-0 ATS, the least unbeaten team in the NFL in that category.

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Jets at Colts

Opening Line: Colts -14

Current Line: Colts -10.5

The Buzz: Jets QB Mike White threw for 405 yards against the Bengals in taking over for Wilson. And the Jets toppled the Bengals – who were the best team in the AFC – 34-31. The short week is the X-factor here. The Colts have gotten a look at White, who made his first NFL start in Week 8. But will he and the Jets simply have too much momentum? The only thing worse than betting on the Jets is giving the Colts double-digit points.

NFL CHAMPION: Super Bowl 56 Odds For All 32 Teams Plus NFL Futures Odds

Bills at Jaguars

Opening Line: Bills -11

Current Line: Bills -14.5

The Buzz: The Bills are looking for a Florida Sweep in 2021. They’ve already beaten Miami twice. Their price against the Jaguars rose more than field goal after the Jags were declawed by Seattle last week. Meanwhile, Josh Allen scampered into the end zone late to give the Bills a 26-11 win, delivering a win or push for Bills bettors under the wire. Buffalo plays its third and final game in the Sunshine State on Dec. 12 at Tampa Bay.

Teams on Bye Week: Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team

All odds are current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review and our FanDuel sportsbook review. You can also check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel comparison of the two books.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.