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The NFL betting public extended its winning streak in Week 7, thanks to home-team covers in Green Bay, New England and Arizona, and some critical prop plays.
The nation’s sportsbooks and betting sites continued their 2021 give-back program Sunday, but the public’s margin of victory was slimmer compared to the knockout it scored in Week 6. The presence of nationwide sports betting mitigated some of the deeper losses absorbed in Las Vegas itself.
A 13-game slate limited potential liabilities for the books, as did a schedule that featured some important matchups but lacked the star-power of recent weeks. The books enjoyed a profitable result at MetLife Stadium, where “ODJ” and the Giants (-3) upset the Panthers and sent QB Sam Darnold to the bench in a 25-3 win.
Packers, Cardinals & Patriots Deliver For Public
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers covered the (-8.5, -425 at DraftKings) ➜ line in a 24-10 win over Washington. Among the most-bet player props of the day at the same site was Davante Adams at +650 to score the game’s first TD, which he did, and Rodgers throwing over 2.5 TD passes at +160. He had three.
Mac Jones and the Patriots demolished the Jets and a -7 spread at FanDuel ➜ with a 54-13 verdict over Gang Green.
In another promising sign for the betting public, the action was nearly evenly split on the Kansas City and Tennessee matchup. That’s in sharp contrast to recent weeks, where the Chiefs were pulling in upward of 80-90% of the handle while not covering.
The Titans completed their six-day sweep of 2021 AFC Championship Game participants with a 27-3 walkover of the Chiefs, knocking out Patrick Mahomes II with a head injury. WynnBET, DraftKings and FanDuel had nearly even-money plays on the 4.5-point spread and moneylines. The loss left Kansas City 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games (including the postseason) and tied with Denver at 3-4 for the basement in the AFC West.
The books scored as the Panthers consumed 89.1% of the spread handle and 86.9% of the moneyline handle (-150) at WynnBET.
LOOKING AHEAD:Week 8 Betting Odds & Betting Lines For All Games
Favorites Gain Ground
Favorites are 6-6 in the 12 games played thus far in Week 7. After 105 games in the 2021 NFL season (there were six teams on a bye this week), underdogs are now 56-49 (.533) ATS, after holding nearly a 2-1 edge a month ago.
Sunday saw four spreads larger than a single score. In those games, three of the favorites covered.
Game
Spread
Result
HOU at ARI
ARI -18
31-5, ARI
DET at LAR
LAR -15
28-19, LAR
CHI at TB
TB -12.5
38-3, TB
WAS at GB
GB -8.5
24-10, GB
Those lines fluctuated last week. At one point, the Bucs were 13-point favorites. Tom Brady threw career touchdown Nos. 599-602 at Raymond James Stadium Sunday. Total bettors who backed the under endured a white-knuckle win on the 48-point total, given that Tampa Bay led 35-3 at the half. The line in Arizona hit 20 points, and the Rams saw their spread waver from -14.5 to -16.
“Small loser on the day. Didn’t have too many big decisions today,” said Borgata AC Director of Race and Sports Book Thomas Gable. “The Chiefs-Titans was the worst result for us. Obviously with those big spreads, teasers were popular plays and moneyline parlays with a lot of the favorites were getting bet a lot. The public teams like the Packers and the Buccaneers keep covering and the public keeps winning.”
NFL CHAMPION: Super Bowl 56 Odds For All 32 NFL teams plus NFL Futures Odds
Dollars & Sense: Week 7 Betting Insight
LIONS ROAR: The 0-7 Lions unloaded the Surface Pro early against the Rams. Those moves proved critical as Detroit upped its record to 4-3 against the spread. A reward for Great Lake state bettors in Michigan for backing them in this most terrible of seasons. The Lions have clawed their way to covers against the 49ers (+9.5), Ravens (+7.5), Vikings (+10) and Rams (+15) thus far in 2021.
RISING LIKE A PHOENIX: If the season ended today, and it won’t, Arizona (NFC) and Cincinnati (AFC) would be the top seeds in their respective conferences. Arizona sports betting fans of legal age continue to profit backing their home team. The Cardinals are 7-0 overall and 6-1 ATS. The Cowboys, who enjoyed a Week 7 bye, Cardinals and Packers are now a combined 18-2 ATS this season. The most-bet game of Week 8 in terms of handle could well occur on Thursday night, when the Packers visit Arizona. The early line has the home team favored by 3.5 points. The total is 53 points at BetMGM, where the Packers are +150 to win outright, while the Cardinals are -175.
JOINING THE CHASE: The Bengals (+6.5, +220 at DraftKings) ➜ moved into the top spot in the AFC by beating Baltimore 41-17. Joe Burrow threw for 416 yards and 3 TDs. His former LSU teammate, WR Ja’Marr Chase, caught 8 passes for 201 yards. Chase is now the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors with +120 odds at DraftKings. ➜ Jones is next at +450.
Four rookie quarterbacks started in Week 6: Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Davis Mills. Jones and the Patriots won and covered. The other three endured disastrous results. Fields was humiliated in Tampa Bay and became a GIF. Wilson was hurt in the loss to the Patriots and the Texans and Mills were routed by Arizona. Trey Lance is injured and did not feature in San Francisco’s loss. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars had the bye to celebrate their lone win of 2021 in Week 6.
Here’s our Week 7 rookie breakdown:
Team
QB
C/Att
YPass
TD
INT
Spread
Final
NE
Jones
24/36
307
2
0
NE -7
53-14, NE
NYJ
Wilson
6/10
51
0
0
NYJ +7
53-14, NE
HOU
Mills
23/32
135
0
0
HOU +18
31-5, ARI
CHI
Fields
22/32
184
0
3
CHI +12.5
38-3, TB
Mills became the sixth rookie QB to play in 2021 after Texans QB Tyrod Taylor was hurt in Week 2. Fields was pressed into service for the Bears after Andy Dalton suffered a knee injury.
Major Week 7 Wagers
There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 7. Here are some notable wagers listed by wager and odds:
The absence of Russell Wilson dominates the in-game storylines here. The Seahawks QB will be out at least another two weeks due to a finger injury. The Saints (3-2/3-2) are coming off a bye and continue to chase Tampa Bay in the NFC South. The Seahawks (2-4/3-3) are simply trying not to be knocked out of playoff contention before Wilson is able to return.
Bettors are supporting the favored Saints on betting apps. According to DraftKings, it is carrying 66% of its spread handle (-5) and 56% of its moneyline handle on the -220 favorites. The total is a low 43.5 points.
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.
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