Lone Star teams looking to find their footing face off in an important Monday Night Football matchup in Week 11, as Micah Parson and the Dallas Cowboys host Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. 

The Cowboys (3-6) have lost four in a row and managed just six points last week in their first game without star QB Dak Prescott, who is out for the remainder of the season. The Texans (6-4) lead the NFC South, but they’ve dropped two straight and haven’t scored more than 23 points in over a month. 

Houston's NFL odds is at -7 on the road in the latest Texans vs. Cowboys odds, with an Over/Under of 41 points.

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 60.2% of his NFL picks five years running, reveals his plays for Monday Night Football Week 11. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Predictions

Texans vs. Cowboys Point Spread

By replacing the injured Dak Prescott with Cooper Rush, the Cowboys have taken the passing game out of their offense. That’s not good for a team that ranks 31st in rush yards and yards per rush and is even worse at home. 

Houston has been shaky, losing three of four with just one of its six victories by more than six points. But Dallas has nothing but Micah Parsons going for it. Look for the Texans to get back on track on Monday night and cover the TD spread. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Over/Under

This isn’t a very high total, but the offenses here haven’t looked sharp. As mentioned, Houston hasn’t topped 23 points since Week 6, while Dak-less Dallas got nothing going against the Eagles last Thursday. 

This is the lowest total of the season for a Cowboys game, with the under-hitting in four of their last six. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four games and is 8-2 on the year. It’s tough to imagine either offense truly breaking out here, and unlikely Dallas gets more than 14-17 points on the night. Go with the Under as a solid secondary play. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Moneyline

The Texans are -325 on the moneyline, so it would take a $325 wager to win $100 in profit. The Cowboys are +260 (wager $100 to win $260 in profit). We like the Texans to cover, but what about the moneyline? 

While we don’t expect the Cowboys to put up much of a fight, this is a steep price to pay for an offense that hasn’t shown much lately, and for a team that’s dropped three of four. We’re staying off those big odds and putting our bankroll elsewhere. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Top Player Props

Joe Mixon, Over 20.5 Carries 

Mixon has rushed 24 or 25 times in each of the last four Texans games. It would be a surprise to see something change here against one of the bottom-level run defenses in the NFL. Mixon doing his thing will open it up for Watson, the back-from-injury Tank Dell, and the rest of the pass offense. It starts with Mixon, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the road. 

NFL Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Cooper Rush, Under 176.5 Pass Yards

In his first start of the season, Rush threw the ball 23 times – and amassed 45 yards. The week before, he threw 25 times against a bad Falcons secondary and had 115 yards. That’s not good, and it gets harder here with CeeDee Lamb ailing (back) and still no Brandin Cooks (IR) against Houston’s third-ranked pass defense. Dallas’ best hope may be to milk the clock and keep it close to the end. 

NFL Odds: -115 at BetMGM