Packers 2021 Odds Shorten After News Of Aaron Rodgers Return
The Green Bay Packers open training camp Tuesday, and their NFL futures odds have shortened dramatically on news that Aaron Rodgers is expected to join his teammates and play in Green Bay this season.
NFL Network reported Monday that Rodgers has told people close to him that he will be reporting to Packers camp in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and that he and the team are close to a deal for him to return in 2021. Part of that agreement is that Rodgers will have a say in any potential future destination after this season.
The reworked deal for Aaron Rodgers includes him having a say in his future in 2022 and 2023. https://t.co/EkQi7dZTXE— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 26, 2021
That revelation rocked NFL betting markets. The price for the Packers to win Super Bowl 56, and for Rodgers to repeat as MVP, had tumbled on earlier rumors that he would retire or sit out the season. NFL bettors Monday saw the price on Green Bay to win the Super Bowl rebound to +1400 at DraftKings. The Packers were as high as +3500 to win Super Bowl 56 a day earlier.
In MVP markets, Rodgers was back to being the second overall choice at +1000 behind Patrick Mahomes at many top sportsbooks and betting sites. He slid to +2000 to repeat as MVP this past weekend on those same retirement/sit-out rumors.
The saga of Rodgers and his antipathy toward the Packers front office this past season has been one of anticipation for many, but frustration for those in Green Bay who support or back the Packers.
Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur opted to kick a field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 8-yard line with the Packers trailing Tampa Bay by eight points late in January's NFC Championship Game. The Buccaneers went on to win 31-26.
Also, Rodgers has been openly critical of Packers management since the team chose quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft.
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With Rodgers expected to report to camp this week, the issue remains whether he and the Packers can work out a contract extension that suits Rodgers’ wants and needs. Rodgers already rejected an extension that would have made him the highest-paid player in the NFL.
Speaking to shareholders on Monday, Packers president and CEO Mark Murphy said he believes the star QB will be back in Green Bay this season. “He is our leader, and we’re looking forward to winning another Super Bowl with him,” Murphy said, via SI.com.
Most sites avoided placing a win total on the Packers before this latest Rodgers development. The Packers’ win total is now 9.5 at FanDuel sportsbook. Green Bay has the fourth-toughest NFL schedule this season, based on its opponents' records in 2020.
The Packers went 13-3 last season with a 16-game schedule. Given Rodgers’ presence on the team this season, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not winning at least 10 games over a 17-game run.
Rodgers no doubt has the backing of his teammates. An “us-against-the-world/front-office” mentality should be easy to instill into his teammates. As a result, take the over on 9.5 wins at -160 with FanDuel.
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There was exceptional value on Rodgers and the Packers available over the weekend, especially in MVP markets. Rodgers is prone to light up the scoreboard no matter what uniform he’s wearing.
Getting the defending MVP at +2000 was a once-in-a-decade opportunity. With Rodgers now back to +1000 to win MVP, the best value in that market lies with the likes of QBs Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. They are +1200 and +2000 respectively at BetMGM.
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About the Author
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose 30-year career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network/Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, the Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post. He has also written for Bleacher Report, the Boston Herald and the Boston Globe's boston.com site. Bill has a strong track record of building, developing and retaining digital audiences. Bill attended Marquette University.