Rodgers, Packers Odds Steady Despite Contract Rejection Report
The uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers’ future with the Packers grew murkier for those who bet on the NFL, just a week before Green Bay is scheduled to begin training camp. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Rodgers, the defending NFL MVP, turned down a contract extension that would have made him the highest-paid player in the league, and under Green Bay’s control for the next five seasons.
The Packers held at +2000 to win Super Bowl 56 and +900 to win the NFC at DraftKings in the wake of the news. Bettors remain skeptical about the Packers’ immediate potential for a championship, no matter the price.
Green Bay has absorbed only 4% of the Super Bowl handle and 6% of the NFC title handle on that site. The team had been as high as +1600 to win the Super Bowl and +650 to win the NFC earlier in the offseason at DraftKings and other top sportsbooks.
The Packers are -140 favorites to win the NFC North at FanDuel . That is as much a testament to the overall weakness across the division as it is an endorsement of Green Bay. If Rodgers doesn’t play this season in Green Bay, the Packers will certainly start second-year QB Jordan Love, whom they drafted in the first round in 2020.
Given all that’s transpired this offseason and Rodgers’ willingness to walk away from a record payday, it’s hard to imagine how he or the Packers could be successful together this upcoming season and return to the NFC title game, never mind getting past the likes of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reach Super Bowl 56.
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Rodgers Still Among MVP Favorites
While bettors might not have too much faith in the immediate future of the Packers, they still have gotten behind Rodgers in the race to repeat as league MVP on NFL futures markets. Rodgers remains +1000 to repeat as league MVP, the second overall choice behind Chiefs QB and 2019 MVP Patrick Mahomes. This number has held throughout spring and early summer despite the seeming uncertainty of where Rodgers will be throwing the football this season.
Rodgers improved as the 2020 season progressed. He finished the regular season with a 121.5 QB rating for the 13-3 Packers. He completed 70.7% of his attempts for 4,299 yards and 48 TDs. Rodgers sat close to +400 on sports betting apps late during the 2020 season before he surged to win the award for the third time in a rout. He received 44 of the 50 first-place votes cast.
The Packers begin the 2021 season in New Orleans. The Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites at most sports betting sites. That line has since moved to New Orleans -1 at DraftKings , even with the uncertainty surrounding the Packers.
Longtime Saints QB and future Pro Football Hall of Famer Drew Brees made his retirement official last month. Green Bay is +130 on the moneyline with BetMGM , while New Orleans is -160 at the same site . The total is 50.5 points.
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Options Limited For Rodgers
There have been NFL odds for Rodgers' "next team" available at PointsBet sportsbook, FanDuel sportsbook and DraftKings sportsbook at various times and in various states since April. In May, PointsBet in Colorado had Rodgers -180 to stay with the Packers. The Broncos were the second choice at +150.
On July 6, Rodgers stood at -150 to stay with the Packers at DraftKings, with 93% of the handle backing that wager. The Las Vegas Raiders had emerged as the second choice at +500. But less than 1% of the handle was backing a Rodgers move to Sin City. Among the other teams listed: Houston Texans (+2000), Chicago Bears (+2800), New England Patriots and New York Giants (+3500).
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Rodgers can either play for Green Bay in 2021, force a trade, or sit out the season. The Packers control his fate if he chooses to play as they own his NFL rights. If Rodgers chooses not to play this year, he will have to return $11.5 million in bonus money for the 2021 season.
Rodgers already forfeited a $500,000 workout bonus by not participating in Green Bay’s official offseason training regimen. If Rodgers skips all of training camp, he will be fined a total of $2.05 million. Rodgers is due a base salary of $14.7 million in 2021. A trade of Rodgers by Green Bay would leave the team with a $21.2 million dead cap hit.