The Patriots-Bills NFL betting Week 13 matchup will determine first place in the AFC East and be the "most-bet" Monday night game of the year. At least according to one sportsbook.

The Patriots (8-4/8-4 ATS) enter the game with the top seed in the AFC. They have won and covered for six straight weeks. Josh Allen and the Bills (7-4/6-4-1) were favorited to reach Super Bowl 56 out of the AFC until two weeks ago.

Much of Buffalo’s early success was hidden behind a mirage of lesser opponents. New England QB Mac Jones earned Rookie of the Month honors for November and has won more games than all other rookies who have started in 2021, combined. He has moved to a near-lock to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, rising to -400 at FanDuel .

"Tonight’s game will be the most heavily bet Monday Night Football game of the year," said Borgata AC Race and Sports Book Director Thomas Gable.

The Patriots took the No. 1 seed in the AFC after the Ravens lost in Pittsburgh Sunday night. It took just 20 months after Tom Brady emigrated to Florida for Bill Belichick to rebuild his team into the best in the AFC. At least for one day.

Check out: Bills vs. Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Oddsmakers Expect Close, Defensive Struggle

NFL odds on this game have hovered between Buffalo -2.5 to -3. The total has slid to 41 points (-110) at DraftKings . That’s understandable given the strength of both defenses and the potential for windy, snowy weather.

New England’s scoring defense ranks tops in the NFL, allowing just 15.8 PPG. Buffalo is second at 16.5 PPG. The Bills have allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL with 275.2. New England is fourth at 316.7.

The Patriots are +130 at bet365 on the moneyline, while the Bills are -140 at DraftKings .

This game has evolved into a two-way play across betting sites. The public supports the Patriots with 59% of the spread handle while the Bills are getting 56% of the moneyline handle, according to our analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.

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Bills Remain Among AFC, Super Bowl Favorites

The Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Patriots are the three top choices to win the AFC, according to NFL oddsmakers. Bettors who want to back the Bills to win the Super Bowl are getting +800 at BetMGM , while Buffalo is +375.

The real betting value in NFL futures markets on the Patriots is long gone.

New England was +10000 at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl and +3500 to win the AFC six weeks ago when it was 2-4. The Patriots are now +1000 at BetMGM to win their seventh Super Bowl in February. New England is +500 at PointsBet to win the AFC.

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Three of the six states that comprise New England have legalized mobile sports betting: New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Legislation that would have legalized mobile and on-site sports betting in Massachusetts stalled this fall on Beacon Hill.

The state Senate failed to act on a sports betting bill passed by the House with overwhelming support. The move has proven costly to would-be Patriots backers, given that the team is both 8-4 ATS and straight up. The Patriots have won and covered for six straight weeks.

Mobile sports betting in New York was approved by regulators earlier this month. It is expected to be active by the Super Bowl but could launch any day.

GAME PREVIEW: Patriots vs Bills MNF Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions