Houston just allowed over 200 yards rushing to Derrick Henry and was so poor at slowing the run that the Titans attempted one single pass the entire second half. Philly doesn’t have Henry, but it has the No. 6 run offense in the NFL. The Eagles will run all night if the Texans can’t do anything about it. That shortens the game. 

Houston has managed over 20 points just once all season, and 13 or less in two of the last three. Those efforts were against mediocre defenses of Jacksonville, Las Vegas and Tennessee. The Eagles allow the fourth-fewest points and third-fewest yards. If Philly grounds the clock and Houston can’t move the ball, this could keep the scoring down. Lean toward the Under on Thursday night. 

We expect Philadelphia to win, and win big, but is -730 on the moneyline worth it? You’d need to wager $730 on the Eagles to win $100 in profit. In today’s NFL, we’re not risking it. Weird things happen – not this weird, yet – but the reward doesn’t match the risk. 

Houston is +530, so a $100 wager wins $530 in profit. The Texans tied with the Colts and stunned the Jaguars, but neither of those efforts look as impressive as they did at the time, and they’ve lost every other game. There are better ways to spend your bankroll than backing the Texans. 

Here are our favorite Eagles vs. Texans player props for today:

Davis Mills, Over 231.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -104 at Caesars Sportsbook

Mills has passed for over 240 yards three times in 2022. The Texans didn’t win any of those games; in fact, the defense allowed 31.7 ppg in them, meaning Houston was playing catch up and letting Mills go for it. 

We can expect nothing less in a game against the Eagles, who should get out to a big lead. Houston’s utter inability to run the ball, coupled with a huge deficit, means 35-plus pass attempts again for Mills and the undermanned Houston offense. 

Jalen Hurts, Under 41.5 Rush Yards

Odds: -108 at Caesars Sportsbook

When the Eagles are cruising, Hurts doesn’t run as much. In Philly’s two games decided by a field goal, Hurts averaged 16 carries and 75.5 yards. In the two wins decided by double figures, those numbers are 7.5 and 15.0. Last week, in Philly’s blowout 35-13 win over the Steelers, he gained just 10 yards. 

Houston has allowed only 97 rushing yards to QBs this season. But it’s also allowed 1,114 rushing yards to RBs, by far the most in the NFL. Look for a big day from Miles Sanders and his fellow backs, and for Hurts to be content with it.