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Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 7 mins

Sean Payton Next Team Odds: 36% Chance Payton is Next Cowboys Coach

Sean Payton Next Team Odds: 36% Chance Payton is Next Cowboys Coach
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Sean Payton shocked NFL betting fans when he announced in January he was leaving his post as head coach of the New Orleans Saints. This wasn’t a retirement, but a period to take a deep breath and recharge. 

Payton will work as an analyst for FOX Sports for the 2022 season, but expect him back on the sidelines as early as 2023. He recently told USA Today he’ll be coaching again soon, but didn’t indicate where or when.  

Payton coached the Saints from 2006-21, accumulating a 161-97 record with a Super Bowl championship. There will be suitors when Payton is ready to return. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has projected NFL odds as to where Payton makes his coaching return. 

Next TeamOddsImplied Probability
Dallas Cowboys +175 36.4%
Chicago Bears +250 28.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400 20.0%
Seattle Seahawks +750 11.7%
Carolina Panthers +900 10.0%
The Field +650 13.3%

Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps. This page will be updated should odds become available.

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The Bears just hired Matt Eberflus to run the show for 2022. It’s looking like another down season in Chicago, but the Bears will be flush with cap space in 2023 with a young QB at the helm. The heartstrings may tug a little if this opportunity was there; Payton went to high school in suburban Chicago and played college ball at Eastern Illinois. 

The Seahawks are very unlikely to fire current coach Pete Carroll, but at age 71, the time may be coming when he decides to go out on his own terms – especially if it becomes apparent Seattle is in the early stages of a rebuild. 

The Buccaneers just hired Todd Bowles to replace Bruce Arians, who moves to the front office. Bowles is the guy with the headset but Tom Brady is the guy here. Rumors ran during the off-season he planned to join Sean Payton in Miami before things fell apart. There’s a mutual admiration there, and if Brady and Bowles don’t connect this season, the Bucs may get proactive. 


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There is a mutual admiration between Payton and the Cowboys. Jerry Jones has made clear his respect for the former Saints head, and Payton has strong Texas connections, including three seasons as associate head coach/QB coach. Dallas is in win-now mode; if it doesn’t meet expectations, Mike McCarthy may not get a fourth year – especially if Payton makes it clear he wants back on the sidelines. 

Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is the favorite to be the first coach fired at most online sportsbooks. Panthers brass would have little qualms spending top dollar to get Payton back in the NFC South via Charlotte. 

The Field has several possibilities of coaches perhaps on their final year of proving themselves, including Frank Reich in Indianapolis, Ron Rivera in Washington and even Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.