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Year of the Dog? Here's How Much You'd Be Up Betting NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Josh Markowitz for Bookies.com

Josh Markowitz  | 5 mins

Year of the Dog? Here's How Much You'd Be Up Betting NFL Moneyline Underdogs

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When it comes to this NFL betting season, one thing is clear: The ‘dogs are barking, specifically moneyline underdogs.

As a result, Bookies.com’s research indicates bettors who have blindly placed $100 on every moneyline betting underdog this year are up $822 on betting apps.

Moneyline underdogs are 46-69-1 on the season, but because of the value compared to NFL ATS betting, it’s easy to see why bettors are up $822 so far by betting moneyline underdogs at online sportsbooks. Prior to a lackluster Week 8, that number was at $1,604 following the avalanche of upsets in Weeks 6 and 7.

How Much You'd Make Betting ML Underdogs

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Best Bet of the NFL Season? Home Moneyline Underdogs

Moneyline home underdogs have been, well, money. They are cashing roughly 4% more than moneyline underdogs overall. 

Even with 10 of this season’s 17 moneyline hits of +200 or greater occurring on the road, betting a unit on every home moneyline underdog boasts an 6.12 unit return.

RELATED: NFL Week 8 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Betting underdogs on the moneyline also continues to outperform betting them against the spread from a value perspective.  

Although underdogs against the spread have a far higher win rate this year (70-52-1 or 57.3%), the “juice” being paid by bettors means they have to continue to hit at a high rate to be profitable. 

Betting Home Moneyline 'Dogs

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As you can see, home moneyline ‘dogs have been great this year. The other takeaway? If you like an underdog, it’s a wise investment to put a little cash down on their moneyline, in addition to taking them ATS. 

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Betting Underdogs Historically

Per ESPN, underdogs have won almost 54% of the time against the spread since 2018, but this year is pushing the extremes. 

While underdogs had a winning record against the spread last year, they hit at a mere 50.7% rate, which would have resulted in a 9.3 unit loss betting them every time, according to Yahoo. Meanwhile, the profitability of the moneyline underdog has held between seasons. 

Even if that figure was not odds shopped, being up 20.55 units at the end of the season is nothing to scoff at. But with how 2022 is shaping up, it would not be surprising to see moneyline underdogs blow well past last year’s total by Week 18. 

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Giant Killers

Brian Daboll’s squad stands at the forefront of the NFL’s underdog uprising. Fresh off a miserable 4-13 season, New York entered 2022 with tempered expectations. 

With this in mind, the Giants came into five of their first seven games this year as the moneyline underdog, including this week on the road in Jacksonville. New York is 6-2, but the betting markets still have not adjusted to their play. 

Three of the Giants’ wins have come at odds of +200 or greater, including one at +350 versus the Packers in London, which marks the third-biggest hit of the season for a moneyline underdog. 

While the Giants are only projected to be listed at odds above +200 once more this season (Week 12 at Dallas), they remain a likely underdog in six of their final nine games, according to DraftKings.

Keep an eye on the team’s scoring margin though. Seven of the eight games the Giants have played so far have been within one score, and the market’s view of them reflects that. 

While no one has matched New York’s proclivity for upsets, the Giants are far from the only team to come up big as the underdog multiple times this year. 

Geno & The Jets

Geno Smith’s unlikely stellar play for the Seattle Seahawks and the sudden ascendence of his former team, the New York Jets, are two factors fueling this moneyline underdog trend. 

The Seahawks and Jets have four wins each as moneyline underdogs. The Jets are also one of four teams, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys (that won't continue with Dak Prescott back) and the Chicago Bears, to have won two games at odds greater than +200. 

The Seahawks, Jets, Steelers and Bears will have ample opportunities to score more upsets. DraftKings lists the Jets as moneyline underdogs five more times throughout the season, while the Seahawks and Steelers each have six such games remaining. The Bears are underdogs in 7 of their final 9 games.

*Odds taken from a combination of FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, BetRivers and WynnBET.

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About the Author

Josh Markowitz for Bookies.com
Josh Markowitz
Josh Markowitz is a freelance writer for Bookies.com. He is a lifelong sports fan with an emphasis on basketball, football, baseball and the scouting/evaluation process. A graduate of Elon University's School of Communications, Josh also has experience in television production.