2022 Brazilian Grand Prix Odds, F1 Picks & Betting Predictions
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Brazil’s Sao Paulo hosts the next race in the 2022 Formula 1 calendar and Red Bull hope to make it 10 race wins in a row. Can Mercedes or Ferrari stop that winning streak?
Here are the race odds on sports betting sites and betting apps.
2022 Brazilian Grand Prix Odds
Odds via BetMGM ➜ and accurate as of publication.
So both Formula 1 titles have been wrapped up thanks to Red Bull and Max Verstappen, who went as far as taking his record-breaking 14th win of the season – surpassing Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel.
This weekend, things are slightly different in that we have a Sprint race, which is a short Saturday evening dash to the line that gives points to the top eight finishers and sets the grid for Sunday’s Grand Prix.
Red Bull are still favorites to win but, after Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton finished second and threatened for pole in Mexico City, perhaps they’ll have another thorn in their side in Sao Paulo. There’s also the small matter of Ferrari, who should have the pace to win – but haven’t done so well in recent Sundays…
2022 Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Predictions
Qualifying is going to be a close one in Brazil. It’s a short track with a winding first and second sector that leads onto a long left-hander and then back into the Senna S.
Verstappen is favorite to take pole position in Friday’s qualifying with odds of +138 on offer from Caesars, and it’s hard to look past him for another qualifying win. The weather could play a part as there’s a 50% chance of rain on Friday evening – but Verstappen just loves this track in the wet. So while it might be tempting to pick Charles Leclerc (at +150 via Caesars Sportsbook), who still has the most qualifying wins this season, Verstappen is the safest bet.
Hamilton and his Mercedes teammate George Russell challenged for pole in Mexico but ultimately fell a sizeable 0.3s off the pace. Brazil is still a high-altitude circuit but it’s not as high up as Mexico City and so Mercedes’ pace is expected to return to normal. They’re normally not that quick on Saturdays…
As the average margin for pole in Brazil is about 0.14s, BetMGM’s F1 betting odds of +225 for the winning qualifying margin to be between 0.101-0.250s is a solid bet.
Now to the Sprint. It’s not going to rock your socks off; Sprint races rarely do as there are rarely lead changes. In fact, Verstappen has won both of this season’s Sprints from first on the grid. That’s why he’s favorite to win the Sprint with BetMGM offering -650 for him to finish in the top three. Team mate Sergio Perez, who has solid race pace, is +125 to finish in the top three in the Sprint and I’d take those odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Since 2014, five of seven Brazilian GP wins have come from first on the grid, and, as the Sprint sets the grid for Sunday’s race, it’s very likely that the Sprint winner will also win the race. That said, Sao Paulo offers up plenty of drama and is always worth a watch.
It just feels silly to back anyone but favorite Verstappen (-175 to win via Caesars); BetMGM are also offering -167 for the pole-sitter, whoever that may be, to win the race.
With an average winning margin of around seven seconds, it might be more sensible to put money on a winning margin of 6-10.999 seconds as BetMGM are offering +300 for that to be the case.
Daniel Ricciardo is bowing out of F1 at the end of the season but he’s been quick recently, taking a brilliant seventh-place in Mexico City, so with Caesars offering +163 for both McLarens to score, you could make a small profit. That outlet is also offering +110 for both Red Bulls to be on the podium and it’d be surprising if that doesn’t happen.
Red Bull are still the most astute crew in the pits and at +200, I’d also back them to have the fastest pit stop in Brazil. That’s via BetMGM, who are also offering +700 for Bottas ahead of Zhou, Vettel ahead of Stroll, Gasly ahead of Tsunoda and Magnussen ahead of Schumacher.
We’ve consistently backed Perez to be antepost winner of the championship without Verstappen and, from +160 before the Mexican GP, BetMGM have now shortened his odds to -138. He definitely holds the edge over Leclerc right now.