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2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 35 mins

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards

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Selection Sunday has a new meaning this year for movie buffs and bettors.

The 95th Academy Awards ceremony airs Sunday starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Wagering on the Oscars has been legal in the United States since 2019. This year, betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Colorado, Indiana, and Louisiana are among the states booking action on Hollywood’s biggest night of the year. Retail books in Massachusetts are also permitted to accept bets on the Oscars. Massachusetts betting apps went live in the Bay State Friday at 10 a.m. ET.

RELATED: Where Can You Bet On The 2023 Oscars?

Not all legal sportsbooks are taking wagers on the Oscars, even if permitted to do so. FanDuel, for example, is taking Oscars bets in New Jersey and is accepting wagers on just six categories. BetMGM is approved for Oscars wagering in Indiana, Michigan and Louisiana. DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook have betting available in all four states where it is allowed this year, across 23 total categories.

Jimmy Kimmel will host the telecast for the third time, returning after back-to-back appearances in 2017-18. Viewership bottomed out in 2021, when just 10.4 million people watched. That marked a 56% drop from 2020. It was the smallest TV audience in Oscars history (since the first measurement in 1974). The numbers bounced back last year to about 16 million thanks in large part to the Chris Rock-Will Smith slap and the stir it caused on social media.

Rock finally dished on the big-slap during his live Netflix special, which only further fuels hype for the ceremony on Sunday.


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But even in Oscar betting, there are no true locks. There’s always an Anthony Hopkins out there. If he's not going to eat your liver, he might eat your money.

In 2021, the Academy re-designed the show to award the Best Actor statue at the end, predicting a posthumous win for Chadwick Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” When Anthony Hopkins (+800) won, the show went to credits as soon as the award was presented.

“That was a stunner. The people putting the show together weren't expecting it, because the acting category is never the last thing,” said Dominick Debonis. He leads the WynnBET trading team on Oscar betting. “They set up the Best Actor as the last award, expecting the coordination and getting to honor him and all that. And then, they pretty much just cut to black when Anthony Hopkins was announced.”

“There’s always one category that does this,” added Johnny Avello, the Director of Race and Sports at DraftKings. “This time it was at the end of the show.”

Avello wrote his first ticket in Las Vegas in 1984 and invented the Oscar betting market during his days on the Strip. He sees continued growth this year in the overall Oscar betting handle, despite the steep price on “Everything” as Best Picture.

“That hurts the betting a lot, but there are still some favorable prices out there,” he said. “The general consumer is just not going to lay $12 to win $1. They're going to look at a movie like “Top Gun”. They're going to say: ‘Yeah, I saw Top Gun. I can relate the Top Gun. I'm getting +1600 so let me throw $10 or $20 on that.' That's what you'll see. The handle will be better and continues to grow every year. The show, the show itself, though, has lost market share."

2023 Oscars Odds & Predictions

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards 1

The betting favorites to win Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress shifted significantly following the Screen Actors Guild Awards ceremony on Feb. 26. The SAG awards is the final film ceremony before the Oscars. Final voting on the Oscars ends this week.

"Everything Everywhere All At Once" leads all films with 11 nominations and rests as the favorite to nab Best Picture honors. Brenden Fraser ("The Whale") and Austin Butler ("Elvis") are co-favorites for Best Actor. Cate Blanchett (Tar) has the shortest odds in the Best Actress category.

Here is a breakdown of the Oscars odds listed by their best available price, our picks, and the buzz on each of the six major Oscars categories.

Best Picture - Oscars 2023 Odds

Film Odds
Everything Everywhere All at Once -1200 ➜
All Quiet on the Western Front +1000 ➜
The Banshees of Inisherin +1500 ➜
Top Gun: Maverick +2000 ➜
The Fabelmans +3300 ➜
Tar +5000 ➜
Women Talking +10000 ➜
Avatar: The Way Of Water +10000 ➜
Elvis +10000 ➜
Triangle Of Sadness +10000 ➜

Odds via BetMGM and subject to change

Oscars Best Picture Betting Analysis

Last year, "CODA" rallied from as low as +2000 on betting apps after the Golden Globes to swipe the Oscar from “The Power Of The Dog,” which was the consensus favorite to take home Best Picture honors at the Academy Awards. "CODA" saw its price soar on after a strong performance at the Screen Actors Guild awards.

This year, the odds for "Everything Everywhere All at Once" to win Best Picture spiked from -270 to -1400 following its big night at the SAGs. "Everything" won for Cast In A Motion Picture and Female Actor In A Leading Role.

"The Banshees of Inisherin" is being re-screened across the country and is the sort of film that carries appeal across the Academy's 10,000-member voting base. But there is now some low-level buzz it might be shut out entirely on Oscar night. Meanwhile, "All Quiet on the Western Front" has slipped into second place.

If the Academy had an award for "Most Important Picture of the Year," it would go to "Top Gun: Maverick" in a landslide. The film grossed more than $1.4 billion and almost single-handedly kept the cinema industry viable in 2022. None other than Steven Spielberg told Tom Cruise his sequel "saved Hollywood's ass" and "might have saved the entire theatrical industry." High praise, even if it won't lead to an Oscar.

The Experts Say:

Debonis: I looked at ‘Everything’ as a betting option when it was +400, and then I saw the movie. I loved it. It's one of the best things I've watched in the past couple years. But I'm like, ‘This is a little too weird for Oscar voters. I don't think this is going to go all the way.’ I was definitely proven wrong there. The timing of the releases (in terms of streaming) plays a huge part in how the voters perceive these movies.

Avello: I thought "Fabelmans" was a good bet early as insurance. Usually, we get a buzz on another movie but “Everything” has just absolutely taken off. It's a huge favorite. I don't think I've seen a movie that is this big of a favorite in many, many years. Usually, you see these kinds of prices in some of the more obscure categories. It happens in the Best Actor and Actress. Somebody will get steamrolled and end up being a -1200 or -1400. But it's very rare to see a movie this big a favorite.

The Winner Is . . .

”Everything Everywhere All at Once”: We called the win for "CODA" last year. The make-up of the Academy has more than doubled in recent years and the push to a smaller scope has been rewarding. "Banshees" carries more depth in its story but "Everything" has an edge with a diverse cast and gripping action. What was going to be a close battle to the wire has now exploded into a rout.

Best Director - Oscars Odds

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards 6
Director Film Odds
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Everything Everywhere All at Once -1400 ➜
Steven Spielberg The Fabelmans +650 ➜
Martin McDonagh The Banshees of Inisherin +1400 ➜
Todd Field Tar +2000 ➜
Ruben Ostlund Triangle of Sadness +5000 ➜

Odds via BetMGM ➜ and subject to change

Oscars Best Director Betting Analysis

"The Daniels" are as close to a lock as any other favorite in this year's Oscars betting market. This is the second-straight year in which Steven Spielberg has garnered a Best Director nod. He won the award in 1994 (Schindler's List) and 1999 (Saving Private Ryan). Spielberg won this one at the Golden Globes and is the only other nominee to consider, especially at his current price. Debonis says Spielberg is worth a wager at his current price due to the Acemdemy's

The Winner Is . . .

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert ("Everything Everywhere All at Once"): These two just won the Directors Guild of America's top award this past weekend. The Academy is on a roll when it comes to diversity in this category. Seven of the past eight winners were either Hispanic, Asian, or female. This is a big deal for voters and Kwan affords them that opportunity in a film that is worthy of Best Picture consideration.


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Best Actor In A Leading Role – Oscars 2023 Odds

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards 2
Actor Film Odds
Brenden Fraser The Whale -190 ➜
Austin Butler Elvis +135 ➜
Colin Farrell The Banshees of Inisherin +1400 ➜
Paul Mescal Aftersun +5000 ➜
Bill Nighy Living +5000 ➜

Odds via BetMGM and subject to change

Best Actor Oscars Betting Analysis

Austin Butler won the Golden Globe for his all-in performance of Elvis Presley. Butler transformed himself into "The King" on the screen in a movie that left audiences either enamored or disappointed. Brenden Fraser (The Whale) delivered a stirring performance as a morbidly obese shut-in who is trying to reconcile with his daughter before it's too late. Fraser's on-screen comeback and his off-screen struggles in the wake of abuse offers a compelling tale for voters. It worked at the SAG awards, which honored Fraser with its top-actor honor. His number continues to rise in this market.

The Experts Say:

Debobis: That's a dead-even split of everything you look for between Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”). Butler won the Globe and the BAFTA, and then Fraser wins the Critic's Choice and the SAG. I am leaning towards Butler, because I think more of the voters have probably seen “Elvis” than “The Whale.” There's a historical track record of actors playing real life people winning. And I think even, as morbid as it is, the unfortunate timing of the death of Lisa Marie Presley (Elvis’ only child) might actually boost Butler's chances with the voters.

Avello: For the award season, it's all about timing and momentum. When there's smoke, there's fire. Brendan Fraser is as long as +175 for a movie called “The Whale” and nobody's actually seen it. He's taken quite a bit of money. I can see an upset in that category. If it happens, it will come from Butler. This is another that came out of nowhere to Fraser for “The Whale.” I wasn't expecting that to be that strong of a favorite at this time.

The Winner Is . . .

Brenden Fraser (“Whale”): We'd love to buck some of the chalk here but it's hard to see Academy voters shifting gears after Fraser's win at the SAG awards. Fraser's performance was memorable and unexpected. His story off the screen mirrors the triumph (of sorts) his character found on it. Voters tend to favor portrayals of real people. We saw that trend continue last year when Smith won for "King Richard" after slapping Rock earlier in the ceremony. Butler played a big star in a big way, striking an important balance without crossing over into cartoon territory. That was done by Tom Hanks in his role as Colonel Tom Parker.


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Best Actress In A Leading Role – Oscars 2023 Odds

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards 3
Actress Film Odds
Cate Blanchett Tar -125 ➜
Michelle Yeoh Everything Everywhere All at Once -110 ➜
Andrea Riseborough To Leslie +2500 ➜
Michelle Williams The Fabelmans +2500 ➜
Ana de Armas Blonde +5000 ➜

Odds via BetMGM and subject to change

Best Actress Oscars Betting Analysis

This market flipped after Michelle Yeoh's win at the SAG awards over Blanchett in the same category. Before the SAG awards, Cate Blanchett was a -275 favorite for her role in "Tar" over Yeoh in "Everything" at +200. Those numbers have since evened out with Blanchett holding as a slight favorite. The cast of "Everywhere" is everywhere this year in terms of nominations. Blanchett won the Golden Globe for Actress in a Drama Motion Picture while Yeoh won the Golden Globe for Actress in a Musical or Comedy.

The Experts Say

Debonis: The SAG has a more diverse membership than the Academy does, and I think that's why you saw a couple of the upsets that you did, like Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress, for example, when Cate Blanchett had basically been on a rocket the entire time with the Globe and the BAFTA. Having seen both, I think Yeoh had more to do, and the momentum behind the movie makes this one difficult. These actor races other than male lead, were not interesting until the SAGs in the past week.

Avello: Blanchett for “Tar” is our favorite but if “Everything” is going to have one of those nights, you know, I could see Michelle Yeoh winning this. Blanchett is a very, very slight favorite. But when you look at the money that's been in so far, it's been in on those two. I mean, there's very little interest in anybody else in the category.

The Winner Is . . .

Cate Blanchett (“Tar”): Voters are already poised to give "Everything" Oscars for both Best Director and Best Picture. Here, Blanchett might see some support given her more dramatic role in "Tar." Blanchett won this award in 2014 for her role in "Blue Jasmine."

Best Actor In A Supporting Role – Oscars 2023 Odds

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards 4
Actor Film Odds
Ke Huy Quan Everything Everywhere All at Once -5000 ➜
Barry Keoghan The Banshees of Inisherin +1400 ➜
Brendan Gleeson The Banshees of Inisherin +1800 ➜
Brian Tyree Henry Causeway +3300 ➜
Judd Hirsch The Fabelmans +3300 ➜

Odds via BetMGM and subject to change

Best Actor In Supporting Role Betting Analysis

Ke Huy Quan managed to figuratively and literally soar above an all-star cast in "Everything". His performance has already been rewarded with a Golden Globe and SAG award. Expect his run to continue here. The "Banshees" vote will be split between Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson.

The Winner Is . . .

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”): Save your money. His price is astronomical for a reason and most operators limit the size and monetary award available in entertainment markets.


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Best Actress In A Supporting Role – Oscars 2023 Odds

2023 Oscars Odds, Best Bets & Predictions For 95th Academy Awards 5
Angela BassettBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever +125 ➜
Jamie Lee CurtisEverything Everywhere All at Once +150 ➜
Kerry CondonThe Banshees of Inisherin +225 ➜
Stephanie HsuEverything Everywhere All at Once +5000 ➜
Hong ChauThe Whale +6600 ➜

Odds via BetMGM and subject to change

Best Actress In Supporting Role Betting Analysis

Jamie Lee Curtis shocked herself and the world with her win for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role at the SAG awards for her performance in "Everything". This is Curtis' first Oscar nomination in her 40-plus-year career. Curtis' price soared from +1400 to +175 after the SAG awards.

Angela Bassett has been a fixture on the American stage, screen and film for five decades. She, too, has yet to win an Oscar. This nomination for her role as Queen Ramonda in "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" is the first Oscar nod for any actor in the Marvel universe. There are some quality roles on this board that offer potential value.

The Experts Say

Debonis: I'm looking at Kerry Condon, who I've seen at +250 in some places. For me, she was the best part of “Banshees,” very funny and likable in the role. And “Banshees” was another one that had a lot of early favorites going and has lost a little momentum. They usually look to honor those type of movies in these categories. Condon is one that I personally would have targeted in this category. She just seems to check a lot of the historical indicators.

Avello: We have a lot of competition here. It’s kind of wide open. Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything”) could get the biggest sentimental nod. Sometimes when you have two people from the same movie, that's not good for one of them that's trying to win. There's a possible split vote. But I think this is going to Angela Bassett. This is hers to lose, I really do think, and this is a good one to back because it's at least a price that you know you can win on.

The Winner Is . . .

Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All At Once"): Bassett remains a betting favorite, in part as a nod to the body of work throughout her career. Curtis is absorbing all of the oxygen here given her win at the SAGs and her current run of terrific press. Curtis had never been nominated despite her half-century in front of the camera. Our long-shot bet for an upset lies with Hong Chau, who stood as Fraser's emotional counterweight in "The Whale" and more than held her own weight against her male lead.


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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.
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