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2023 Wimbledon Men's Final Picks & Best Bets for Djokovic vs Alcaraz

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 6 mins

2023 Wimbledon Men's Final Picks & Best Bets for Djokovic vs Alcaraz

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It’s the gentlemen’s singles final on Sunday, and it’s Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz. The two players from the start were favored by the oddsmakers to compete for the coveted Gentlemen’s Singles Championship trophy. The final match that tennis fans the globe over were hoping to see when the 2023 Wimbledon draw first came out. 

Djokovic descended on the All England Club as the player to beat, the short odds-on favorite at -175 in outright markets at bet365 and with Alcaraz nipping at his heels as the next best bet at +350 to lift the coveted Wimbledon trophy.

As the dust settled on Friday’s semi-final round, after both players set up the most anticipated men’s final for some years, the market quite rightly returned to press with tighter odds befitting of a billing that features the game’s best. Djokovic opened as the favorite on -188 and Alcaraz as the small underdog at +176 to win Sunday’s title-decider.

On the eve of the final, there’s been some movement recorded at the sportsbook exchange as bettors are weighing in heavily on the Wimbledon final. Djokovic has shortened to -215 ( a price available with FanDuel), while Alcaraz has seen his tennis betting odds trimmed down to +150 ( a price available with Caesars).

As ever we’re on top of the action here at Bookies.com, bringing you daily predictions and tennis picks from the world’s oldest and most prestigious Grand Slam. 

So, join us as we dive into the men’s game one last time this year with our Wimbledon Day 14 Predictions, complete with tennis odds from a stable of trusted betting apps.

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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz

Djokovic is on a history-making tear in 2023. After tying Rafael Nadal’s record of 22 Grand Slam titles, by winning the Australian Open at the start of the season, he moved ahead and set a new men’s record with his title-winning run at the French Open. Now, he has his eyes set on Margaret Court’s all-time record of 24 Grand Slam titles.

In addition, a win on Sunday will also see Djokovic win his fifth straight and eighth overall Wimbledon title; thus, tying the great Roger Federer’s all-time record on his beloved grass at the All England Club. 

Can anyone stop Djokovic? That is the unfailing question that precedes the omnipresent Serbian, and nowhere more so than at the major stage where he continues to strengthen his case for the greatest of all time debate.

So far, it has been a rather straightforward run for the 36-year-old who hasn’t lost on Centre Court since the 2013 final to Andy Murray. He traipsed through the early round with nary a drop of sweat in sight. While he did drop a set against both Hubert Hurkacz in the R16 and then Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals, he found his way to comfortable victories in each case nonetheless

In the semi-finals, Jannik Sinner was supposed to be his first real test of the tournament. But the eighth seeded Italian failed to live up to the hype, which was augmented by their epic five-set thriller in last year’s Wimbledon quarterfinals. He bottled it instead in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 (4).

Alcaraz destroyed the third seeded Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 to reach his maiden Wimbledon final on Sunday where he will be hoping to win his second Grand Slam title in only his second major final overall. 

Obviously, Alcaraz’ pursuit of a second major title pales in comparison to all that is on the line for Djokovic this Sunday – a disparity in accolades symbolic of the 16-year age gap between them. They are quite simply on opposite spectrums of their tennis careers.

But Alcaraz is a phenomenal talent that has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the rankings over the last year. Ever since winning the 2022 US Open, which saw him first seize the World No. 1 mantle, he has established himself as a legitimate threat to Djokovic for the game’s most coveted prizes and the No. 1 ranking. 

Indeed, “Carlito” (as he’s fondly known by his legion of fans) is the reigning No. 1, though a win over Djokovic in Sunday’s final will go a long way to validating his perch atop the rankings. 

The 20-year-old Spaniard has had a brilliant grass-court swing, winning the warm-up event at Queen’s Club. Taking the momentum into SW19, he has progressed through the rounds in a workmanlike fashion. In his noteworthy matches, he defeated former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 in the R16 and then Holger Rune 7-6 (3), 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinals. 

Alcaraz is drawing comparisons with Nadal, Djokovic’s longtime rival and one of the very few players that has beaten him in major finals on multiple occasions. That’s a concern for Djokovic’s Wimbledon ambitions, heightened by the fact that Alcaraz is arguably a much better fast-court player than Nadal was at this stage of his career. 

Heck, Alcaraz, at 19 years of age, showed he was more than up for the challenge of Djokovic, throwing down the gauntlet in their first-ever meeting in the semifinals of the Madrid Masters to win a tight, three-set thriller, 6-7 (5), 7-5, 7-6(5) 

Djokovic got his revenge by winning their much-hyped semifinal clash at the French Open last month, 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. However, that victory comes with a caveat as a severe case of full-body cramps rendered Alcaraz virtually immobile in the last two sets.

A couple of encounters provide a very tiny cross-section of their budding rivalry, never mind the disappointment of their first meeting at a Grand Slam. It’s not a lot to hang one’s hat on. Moreover, to bet against Djokovic is to do so at your peril. 

That said, there’s enough evidence from their head-to-head series and the last 18 months of Alcaraz’s emergence to emphasise the potential of an upset springing on the luscious lawns of the All England Club. Unlike his peers, Alcaraz thrives on the big stage and relishes the challenge of playing against the game’s best. 

Sure, based on everything Djokovic has accomplished so far, it’s more of a longshot bet than the tennis odds would suggest. But to answer the earlier question: Can anyone stop Djokovic? The answer is, yes. If there’s a player that can do it, it’s Alcaraz.

Wimbledon Best Bet: Alcaraz to win at +172 at FanDuel

Wimbledon Best Bet: Over 39.5 at -120 at Caesars

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.