Former president Donald Trump is the indisputable GOP frontrunner and with his odds relentlessly trending upwards across the political betting board you’d be forgiven for thinking the 2024 Republican presidential primary race is already over. 

Top UK bookmaker Ladbrokes have moved the needle on Trump’s odds as he eyes the GOP nomination, shortening them from 2/5 (-250) in August to 1/4 (-400) in October. This puts him a country mile ahead of his biggest rival Ron DeSantis at 10/1 (+10000), with Nikki Haley next in the betting at 12/1 (+1200). 

In the broader spectrum of the 2024 US Elections, Ladbrokes have also installed the former POTUS as the top favorite at 13/8 (-163), thus putting him ahead of President Joe Biden at 2/1 (-200) for a White House return.

So, is the GOP race a foregone conclusion? Bookmakers are certainly billing it that way right now. 

And yet, despite the current political betting  landscape, the reality is that it is a long way to next year’s general election and history suggests that it’s too early to write off the competition.

2024 Republican Nominee For President Odds

Odds via Ladbrokes Uk-facing betting site on Tuesday, October 24, 2023 and subject to change.

US laws prohibit betting onpolitics, even in the states where sports betting is live and legal. But betting on political events is legal across the pond, and on the heels of the 2020 US Elections, European betting sites rolled out 2024 US Elections odds – known also as “novelty” or “special” markets.

Politics odds are becoming an increasingly used source by the press and television media in their coverage of political events – a trend that falls in line with the growth of online sports gambling in America. Should US-facing sportsbooks and betting apps ever be allowed to take bets on political events, however, the public is likely to be game. You can bet on it.

Trump On Top

It’s been an extraordinary year in US politics with Trump becoming  the first former president to be criminally indicted. And not just once…but four times. 

Yet, despite the four criminal indictments handed down against him, encompassing 91 felony charges, his polling numbers have remained the same or even improved – both against his GOP rivals and, more recently, in regular polling of a hypothetical rematch with Biden in 2024.

Republican primary polling shows Trump resonating with GOP voters. All the while, his main rivals, barely touching the sides of his lead or even losing ground. 

For instance, Morning Consult surveys tracking the Republican primary electorate’s views of the GOP candidates have consistently shown Trump ahead by big margins. The latest has Trump backed by 59% of potential Republican primary voters, with Florida Governor DeSantis being backed by just 14%, and former South Carolina Governor Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy tied on 7% backing.

Whereas national polling show Trump overtaking Biden, especially in the top swing states that could decide 2024. 

For instance, a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, focusing on the seven states that ran the closest races in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), revealed Trump ahead of Biden in a hypothetical matchup between them in next year’s general election. 

To breakdown these key battleground states by the numbers: Trump led Biden 47% to 43% among registered voters in Arizona; 48% to 43% in Georgia; 47% to 43% in North Carolina; 46% to 45% in Pennsylvania; and 46% to 43% in Wisconsin. The pair was found tied on 44% in Michigan, while Biden’s only lead came in Nevada where he nudged ahead of Trump 46% to 43%.

DeSantis Leads Race For Second Place

We are almost a month removed from the last Republican primary debate and two weeks away from the next one on November 8. As well, we are less than three months away from the Iowa caucuses on January 15, 2024, which will launch the presidential nomination process in earnest. 

Trump’s decision to skip the first two Republican primary debates gave his rivals a chance to seize the spotlight in his absence, with some even using the opportunity to take shots at the former president. However, looking at the polling that immediately followed, it’s clear that all of the contenders have failed to dent Trump’s primary lead.

DeSantis is the only candidate with backing in the double-digits, according to the Morning Consult poll, but a hefty 45-percent margin between him and Trump is a telling sign. By most metrics, it’s an insurmountable scale that stands in his way of becoming a viable Trump alternative. 

Nevertheless, the Florida governor remains undeterred. In fact, he seemingly challenged Trump to a one-on-one debate after the ex-president was a no show in last month’s debate. 

The challenge came in his post-debate remarks to Fox News’ Sean Hannity, repeating his remarks during the debate about the president’s absence. “You know who else is missing in action?’ the governor said. ‘Donald Trump is missing in action. He should be on the stage tonight.’

Haley Surging

After two strong debate performances, Haley is gaining ground on DeSantis in the battle to establish themselves as the  leading Trump alternative. 

The former South Carolina governor is surging in Republican primary and national polls. A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll found Haley’s support has risen from 4% in June to 11% in October among registered voters intending to vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses. 

By contrast, the same survey showed DeSantis’s support falling nationally from 23% to 12% during this same period. 

Two separate polls — New Hampshire and South Carolina —released earlier in October highlighted Haley’s newfound momentum at the state level. By the numbers, Haley leads DeSantis 19% to 10% in New Hampshire and 17% to 12% in South Carolina.

Haley’s upward trend hasn’t gone unnoticed by the DeSantis camp as they have recently trained their attacks on her and, to her credit, she is relishing the fight.

On the downside, this combative phase between them poses a trap because with their attention diverted away from Trump, it’s only going to benefit the former president in his bid to consolidate power behind him.

NOTE: Betting on politics is not legalized in the U.S. but is heavily bet on in Europe. For more info on political betting in general as well as coverage of the latest news affecting the odds, be sure to check out our guide to betting on politics.