Ashleigh Barty’s bid to become the first Aussie to win the Australian Open since 1978 is headed towards a reckoning this weekend as the world No.1 takes on American tennis hopeful Danielle Collins in the highly-anticipated final.

Barty is the prohibitive favorite with multiple top-rated sportsbooks – a market outlook that is underscored by her sublime form Down Under. The 25-year-old Aussie breezed through the rounds of her home slam without dropping a set and conceding an average of 3.5 games per match.

The closer to making history she gets, the stronger she seems to be on the court. That was evinced nowhere more so than in the semifinals, where she absolutely demolished American star Madison Keys, taking barely an hour to dish up the bruising 6-1, 6-3 victory.

Collins comes into this title game as a considerable underdog on the tennis odds board, but she’s already defied expectations simply by reaching her first-ever major final. That’s a tennis betting angle that can’t be overlooked, as it highlights her dangerous floater credentials. Collins had to beat several top players on her way to the Australian Open final, including No.7 seed Iga Swiatek in the semis. Swiatek was favored over Collins, but the American left the Pole reeling in a 6-4, 6-1 upset win.

Barty vs Collins: Australian Open Women’s Final Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

Australian Open Women’s Final Betting Tips

Few tennis betting fans would have predicted a Barty vs. Collins showdown at the start of the tournament, but the parity in the women’s game is such that it creates unlimited possibilities, especially in grand slam betting. Barty is absolutely the correct favorite to win, but Collins is also a worthy opponent that could orchestrate a massive upset in Melbourne and crush, simultaneously, the hearts of Australians everywhere.

For those looking to bet on Barty, backing her on the moneyline offers very little value. DraftKings sets Barty at -550 to win while Caesars Sportsbook serves up Barty on -500 odds. The best price currently available is with BetMGM at -425, but that’s still quite a steep price to pay. Thus, alternative markets are a better option if Barty is your choice bet.

Conversely, for those looking to put a flutter on Collins for the upset, the best odds currently available are at FanDuel. Collins is tipped at +360 with this sportsbook, meaning a $100 bet will yield $360. However, the implied probability of such a bet coming through is merely 21.7%. So, while the investment versus reward ratio is very attractive (bet $100 to get $360), the actual quantifiable risk factor is high.

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Australian Open Women's Final Best Bets

Barty in Two Sets

Barty has breezed through the tournament without dropping a single set. In the first two rounds, Barty barely worked up a sweat as she dismissed Lesia Tsurenko 6-0, 6-1, and then Lucia Bronzetti 6-1, 6-1. The toughest challenges came from Camilla Giorgi and Amanda Anisimova in the R32 and R16, respectively. Giorgi won five games while Anisimova took seven games, which is the most anyone has taken off the Australian thus far.

Barty to win in straight sets is priced at a reasonable -163 with bet365. By all accounts, Barty to win convincingly is the popular play. Barty to win in three sets is priced at +300 with bet365, which underlines the market’s high expectations of a straight-set win.

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Collins in Three Sets

If Collins is to win, it’s unlikely that she will accomplish the feat in straight sets. Well, it’s not impossible. It’s just not the narrative that’s getting any airtime in tennis betting circles. Plus, the odds are high for such an outcome in sports betting markets. A straight-set win by Collins is priced at +600.

It’s worth noting that a three-set win by Collins is priced at an even greater +900 with bet365. This might seem counterintuitive when Collins’ best chance to win is widely considered to be in three sets. However, with the match on the line in a deciding set, the expectations on Barty supersede those on Collins. As the world No.1, one anticipates Barty would rise to the occasion, her lofty credentials, and overcome her opponent to win.

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2022 Australian Open Women's Final Pick

It’s impossible to dismiss Collins out of hand, but Barty has looked the part of a champion since day 1 of the Australian Open. It would really take an otherworldly performance by Collins to upset Barty in front of a packed Rod Laver Arena. That, or Barty somehow implodes under the pressure.

Barty is the recommended tennis pick, but backing the Aussie on the moneyline doesn’t offer much value. So consider betting on Barty to win in straight sets, but check your sports betting app for the latest odds on this tennis prop bet.

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2022 Australian Open Women’s Final, Date & TV

The Australian Open Women’s final is scheduled for Saturday, Jan. 29, with an American start time of 3:30 a.m. ET approximately. ESPN will air the women’s final live at the time on TV and ESPN+. Due to the time difference, a tape-delayed version will air later that day, at 8 a.m. ET and then again at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday.