Bloomberg, Buttigieg Democratic Odds Slashed Post Iowa Caucus
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The Iowa Caucuses have finally begun to release hard numbers, with 71% of precincts announced Wednesday afternoon after technical glitches and widespread confusion created a circus of uncertainty for Democratic candidates and their supporters in a delay lasting nearly 24 hours.
Now the focus shifts to Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary as Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and others look to move on from the Iowa debacle. And while the process quickly became a laughingstock, the results are still clearly impactful.
One-time longshot and former South Bend (Ind.) mayor Buttigieg leads all candidates with 26.8% of Iowa delegates, a slight edge over Sanders (25.2%) and Warren (18.4%). Biden had the worst showing of all major contenders with just 15.4%.
The betting lines took a drastic turn in the Iowa aftermath with (incomplete) hard numbers finally available on a crowded, chaotic field that will continue to whittle down in the coming weeks.
Buttigieg shot up from +2400 to +500 at 888sport in Europe, erasing much of his value while opening the door for other candidates who may now be underpriced as an overreaction to the first of many key measurements.
The real wild card in all this is Michael Bloomberg. The former New York Mayor did not enter Iowa and will sit out again in New Hampshire, focusing on future states as a late arrival to the campaign. Yet he’s currently the second-favorite behind Sanders, perhaps due to the billionaire’s essentially unlimited campaign resources and advertising budget, as well as how much he seems to get under Donald Trump’s skin.
Note: Political betting is not currently offered at any licensed and regulated bookmakers in the United States. All odds discussed in this article are from European bookmakers.
2020 Democratic Nomination Odds
As noted, Buttigieg loses tons of value here. He’s clearly resonating with many but still faces a long road in the coming months as the least-experienced major candidate. It’s interesting to see him even with former Vice President Joe Biden at +500 considering the gap that existed between the two on Monday. Biden entered Iowa with the second-shortest odds at +200 while Buttigieg was fifth at +2400.
2020 New Hampshire Democratic Primary Odds
Sanders and Buttigieg are clearly the hot names for now, but it’s way too early to count Biden or Warren out. It’s tough to hold an early frontrunner position for extended periods of time, as each of them did throughout the debate process in recent months. Now they can go on offense instead of trying to fend off every attack from contenders collectively focused on knocking them off their perch.
Sanders has a huge lead in early New Hampshire polls and figures to keep his momentum going through next week’s primary. The News/Emerson College tracking poll has the Vermont Senator at 32% in the polls, well clear of Buttigieg (17%) and Biden (13%).
He’s listed at -1000 to win the New Hampshire primary at 888sport with Buttigieg at +350 and Warren +650.
Buttigieg will continue to come under scrutiny in the coming weeks. He’s a legitimate threat having proved something in Iowa and other contenders will now look to drill down on every weakness, real or perceived.
This Democratic field has proved fluid at every turn, riddled with uncertainty and big swings. That’s not going to change any time soon if Iowa is any indication, leaving astute political bettors the opportunity to capitalize on knee-jerk odds and voter temperament with the general election still nine months away.
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