March Madness Perfect Bracket Odds Compared To Powerball, Mega Millions
Promo Code: BOOKIES
Selection Sunday is almost here.
What are the odds of getting a perfect March Madness bracket?
Let's take a look.
The quick answer is: 9,223,372,036,854,775,808-1.
But it's a bit more complicated.
Your chances are a bit better if you know anything about basketball. There, they are considered to be 120.2 billion-1, according to work done by Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol and the NCAA.
With either set of those odds, you are much better off playing Powerball or Mega Millions. The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are a mere 292,201,338-1. The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 302,575,350-1.
The Numbers Behind The Numbers
The NCAA men’s tournament includes a total of 68 teams and 67 games. Four of those teams participate in what is called “The First Four.”
For our purposes, and the purposes of most NCAA bracket pools, the focus is on a traditional 64-team bracket with 63 games that commenced on March 21.
So what is the probability of getting all 63 outcomes correct in an “either-or” equation with no probability of a third outcome?
Think of a coin flip and getting heads 63 times in a row. When you have to get heads 63 times in a row.
That’s a 1 in 2 probability, raised to the power of itself 63 times.
So, what does .5 x .5 x.5 . . . repeated 63 times (or 2^63) equal?
9,223,372,036,854,775,808.
Or 9.223 quintillion-1.
Yep, that’s a real number.
A trillion is equal to one million million.
A quintillion is equal to one billion billion.
March Madness Perfect Bracket Odds Compared To Powerball, Other Events
Here are some “real life” events with the odds they carry in comparison to the 9.2 quintillion-1 or 120.1 billion-1 odds that you have of guessing your way to a perfect NCAA bracket.
| Event | Odds-To-One |
|---|---|
| Perfect NCAA Bracket (Raw) | 9.2 quintillion |
| You Being Born | 400 quadrillion |
| Winning Powerball & Mega Millions | 75.6 quadrillion |
| Perfect NCAA Bracket (Model) | 120.1 billion |
| Having Sextuplets | 3.939 billion |
| Winning Mega Millions | 302,575,350 |
| Winning Powerball | 292,201,338 |
| Eaten By A Shark | 264 million |
| Becoming President (US only) | 32.6 million |
| Struck By Lightning Twice | 19 million |
| Birthing Identical Quadruplets | 15 million |
| Dying In A Plane Crash | 11 million |
| Becoming An Astronaut (US only) | 7.697 million |
| Dying From A Bee Sting | 6.5 million |
| Attacked By A Shark | 5 million |
| Grizzly Bear Attack (Yellowstone) | 2.7 million |
| Becoming A Movie Star | 1.5 million |
| Flipping Heads 20 Straight Times | 1.04 million |
| Die From Flesh-Eating Bacteria | 1 million |
| Struck By Lightning | 960,000 |
| Being Dealt A Royal Flush | 649,739 |
| Winning An Olympic Medal | 662,000 |
| Blackjack 3 Times In A Row | 22,722 |
| Flopping A Royal Flush | 19,600 |
| A Hole In One | 12,500 |
| A 4-Leaf Clover | 10,000 |
| Living To 100 (US Only) | 3,777 |
Breaking Down The Odds For A Perfect March Madness Bracket
Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol says that most college basketball models hit about 75% of the time. Based on those numbers, he pegs the odds of getting those 63 games correct at between 1 in 10 billion to 1 in 40 billion.
Based on NCAA data, players in its Bracket Challenge Game has been correct 66.7% of the time per average game over the past 5 years. Based on that data, the NCAA pegs its more realistic chances of getting that perfect bracket are a mere 1 in 120.2 billion.
Not quite as easy as backing Jalen Hurts as an underdog in the Super Bowl.
But still 70 million times better than if you blindly guessed teams based at random.
The NCAA projects If every person in the United States filled out a completely unique bracket that was 66.7 percent accurate, one could expect a perfect bracket in 2391, or just 366 years from now.
By then, maybe even Purdue might go all the way to a national title.
How Popular Is The NCAA Tournament?
For Caesar Sportsbook Assistant Director of Trading Adam Pullen, the betting tidal wave for March Madness is driven by the passion and tradition that the tournament carries.
"There are so many close games. Buzzer beaters. You don't have to be a basketball fan to be interested in the tournament. The lay person. Everyone knows what March Madness is. It's part of the fabric of this country. A unique event. And it's four weeks long," Pullen told bookies.com. "That first Thursday and Friday, you can't beat the excitement. Being in a sportsbook. It's just crazy. It can't be touched. The small schools beat the big schools. It emcompasses so much in life. Anybody can win. A No. 1 like Purdue (in 2023) can lose. Those things happen. It just transcends sports."
And the numbers behind the Madness are telling.
Here are some numbers, according to a survey of 2,000 basketball fans aged 21+, conducted by OnePoll last year:
- 36 hours: Average time spent on March Madness
- 13 hours: Watching games
- 10 hours: Engaging with online content and highlights,
- 6 hours: Creating brackets and placing bets
- 57%: Think their favorite team can win the tournament
- 30%: Will pick their team to win their bracket
- 19 points: Average second-half deficit that will cause fans to give up hope
- 26%: Fans have skipped work to catch a game
- $570: Fans expect to spend on the tournament experience
- 39%: Fans are expected to bet on the tournament
- $261: Expected average winnings
Pullen concurs. "My daughter fills out a bracket. It's part of the national culture."
Promo Code: BOOKIES
About the Author
Onyx Odds Promo Code BOOKIES: Play $10 Get 25 in Onyx Cash (July 19) 
Prime Sportsbook New Jersey Promo: Claim Up to $400 in Bonuses for WNBA, MLB Yankees-Braves & The Open (July 19) 
Fanatics Sportsbook NC Promo: Grab $250 in Bonuses For MLB Yankees-Braves & WNBA All-Star Game (July 19) 
BetMGM Casino Bonus Code BOOKIESCASB: Get100% Match Bonus Up To $1000 + $25 on the House 
bet365 Bonus Code BOOKIES: $150 in Betting Bonuses for The Open & WNBA All-Star Weekend (July 19) 
Top 10 US Social Casinos Online for July 2025