Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

By Isla Knightley | | 4 mins

2022 House & Senate Elections Odds: Democrats Face Uphill Battle

2022 House & Senate Elections Odds: Democrats Face Uphill Battle
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If online sportsbooks have it right, the Democrats are on the verge of being swept aside by a red wave in this fall’s midterm elections in both the Senate and the House.

Popular British bookmaker Ladbrokes tips the Republicans as the virtual lock bet to win the House at -800.

The latest political odds have the Republicans tipped at -275 to take more than 50 seats in the Senate, too. Falling under the required majority is a political bet priced at +450, while emerging with exactly 50 seats is priced at +450.

Political betting isn’t legal in the United States but it is fair game with our neighbors across the pond. UK bookmakers regularly offer politics odds, also known as “specials,” such as these on a number of American political events and elections, including the upcoming 2024 US Elections.

US news media cite these numbers often, and should US operators ever offer them, it would be a huge market, especially following the January launch of New York sports betting sites.

US Midterm Elections Odds Market

2022 Senate Elections2022 House Elections
Republicans Over 50 seats -275 Republicans -800
Republicans Exactly 50 seats +450 Democrats +450
Republican Under 50 seats +450

Odds via Ladbrokes as of May 13, 2022; political betting is not legal in the United States and not offered by legal betting apps or betting sites

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Democrats vs Republicans Betting

The Democrats’ hold on the US Senate is underscored by a 50-50 split with vice president Kamala Harris having the tiebreaking vote to tip the balance in favor of her party. The Democrats gained control of the Senate merely a year ago after they won the Georgia runoff elections on Jan. 5, 2021, but their sojourn as the dominant party is now projected to flip with the 2022 midterms fast approaching.

The Republican Party is favored to take majority control of the Senate with political odds of -275. These odds carry an implied probability of 73.3%.

In theory, the Republicans need to win one additional seat to flip the chamber. It’s not a foregone conclusion because there is still a chance with the elections seven months away that the Democrats could retain the balance of power in the fall.

Whereas the GOP’s odds to win the House of Representatives at -800 carry an implied probability of 88.89%. Here, the Republicans are widely expected to triumph comfortably.

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Why The House and Senate Might Flip

Historical precedent backs this market outlook, as midterm elections invariably turn into a pseudo-referendum on the party that is in charge of the White House.

The American public overwhelmingly voted Joe Biden and Kamala Harris into the White House in a historic 2020 US Election race that set new records. They received 306 electoral votes and at least 81 million popular votes, a record number of popular votes that smashed previous records by almost 11 million votes.

Two years on, however, the chummy bonhomie that provided the foundation for Biden’s brand is wearing thin as the septuagenarian president’s popularity plunges to new lows.

Biden’s fading popularity is one of many factors hurting the Democratic party’s prospects in the upcoming midterms, buttressed by low scores for personal attributes such as leadership, crisis handling and mental faculties.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s disapproval rating as of Friday, May 13 is 52.6%. He achieved his worst disapproval rating of 53.9% on Jan. 25, 2022.

Economic discontent is another reason. Inflation is at a 40-year high, the cost of living crisis is going through the roof and crime rates are soaring. Add to that an enduring COVID-19 pandemic and foreign policy failures by the Biden administration and one can understand why the Democrats are expected to be dealt a big blow in the 2022 midterms.

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.