By Isla Knightley | | 4 mins
2022 House & Senate Election Odds: Democrats Facing Uphill Battle
Republicans are considerable favorites at online sportsbooks to win the House of Representatives in this fall’s midterm elections, but the U.S. Senate is shaping up to be a much bigger ask for the GOP, according to UK bookmakers.
Popular British bookmaker Ladbrokes, installs the Republicans at -800 to clinch the House in November. The same sportsbook has the Democrats pegged as the +450 underdogs in this market.
Whereas the betting frame for the rest of the midterm elections is mixed. While the Republicans are clear favorites at -400 to win more the 50 seats in the Senate, the Democrats are also favored to win in key battleground states, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Political betting isn’t legal in the United States but it is fair game with our neighbors across the pond. UK bookmakers regularly offer politics odds, also known as “specials,” such as these on a number of American political events and elections, including the upcoming 2024 US Elections.
US Midterm Elections Odds Market
|2022 Senate Elections||2022 House Elections|
|Republicans Over 50 seats -400||Republicans -800|
|Republicans Exactly 50 seats +500||Democrats +450|
|Republican Under 50 seats +600|
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Locked at the head of the political odds to take control of the House, the Republicans at -800 have an implied probability of 88.9% to win it back. It’s far from certain. But the GOP is buoyed by its strong performance in 2020 when it narrowed Democrat’s 35-seat lead to just nine.
In addition, the Democrats are contending with the growing unpopularity of President Joe Biden and a litany of challenges that are facing the country, including an alarming cost of living crisis, rising inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, international crises, and an ongoing covid-19 pandemic.
Historically, the midterm elections have served as a quasi-referendum on the presidential party. In 19 of the last 21 midterm elections, the presidential party has lost seats in the House.
The elections are five months away and a lot can change between now and then. Nevertheless, the current political odds market accurately reflects the massive challenge facing the Democrats to retain control of the various levels of governments that are currently under their sphere of influence, following this November’s midterms.
The Democrats have the White House, and they’ve enjoyed control of the House and Senate, albeit with a narrow majority since 2020.
Typically, voters strive for some degree of political balance where no party has absolute control of all levels of government. Add to that a national environment that appears to be unfavorable towards the Democrats and the stakes couldn’t be any higher for both parties’ Senate races in the upcoming midterms.
Senate Odds By State
|New Hampshire Senate||+110||-150|
All eyes will be on five key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. The first four have Democrat incumbents, albeit the odds are stacked against them in all but one of these four states.
The Republicans, in the meanwhile, are defending Pennsylvania without an incumbent because two-time incumbent Pat Toomey decided he would not be seeking a third term. As it is, the Democrats are slight favorites to win Pennsylvania.
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