NFL Preseason Games & Odds You Should Be Betting This Week
We had another winning week last week, so let’s march onto the messiest of all preseason weeks -- the last one.
As we discussed before preseason started, there is nothing uglier than the last preseason game (and yes, I realize how ugly the rest of the preseason is). The players who will play a lot this week will likely end up playing very little in the regular season. The play will not be pretty, but there are plenty of betting trends that will afford us the opportunity to cash in on the nonsense. All games will be played Thursday.
As the third game has traditionally been the most important preseason game because starters usually play more than in any of the other three.
But in recent years, some coaches have opted to keep most starters out of games, even in this week’s games. So, following our preseason NFL betting guidelines is even more essential this week.
With that in mind, on to our picks:
NFL Preseason Week 4 Best Bets
|NYG (+2.5), over NE||-104||Resorts|
|BAL (-5.5) over WAS||-110||DraftKings|
|LAR-HOU Under 33||-120||Resorts|
|TB-DAL Under 33.5||-110||FanDuel|
|OAK (+2.5) Over SEA||-110||Resorts|
PICK 1: Giants +3 over Patriots
In Week 3, I picked against the Patriots. In Week 4, I picked the Patriots. They covered both weeks. So, perhaps I should hesitate to take New York this week. But the truth is, both the Giants and the Patriots have been preseason titans this summer, especially New York with Daniel Jones emerging as a ROY candidate.
Both squads are 3-0. The Giants have scored 88 points in three games, which is the most of any team this preseason. They are planning to play rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in this game and he has been outstanding. The Giants should hang around in this game.
https://t.co/5EcwukVgta Jones was 9 completions in 11 attempts for 141 yards tonight against the Bengals. Here is every past attempt he had.— M Matt Frank (@dmmf7) August 23, 2019
PICK 2: Ravens -5.5 over Redskins
Death, taxes and John Harbaugh in August. The Ravens are 36-12 in the preseason under Harbaugh, and Baltimore has been a freaking juggernaut this summer. They are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents, 81-28.
Thus, they are beating their opponents by an average of 27-9. The Redskins, meanwhile, have been outscored 60-42 in the preseasons. Backing a -5.5-road favorite is always a bit concerning, but in this case, you have to ride with the Ravens.
PICK 3: Rams-Texans under 33
The Rams probably won’t be a smart under bet much in the regular season. After all, this is a team that scored 527 points last season, the second most in the NFL. But this is not the regular season.
Rams coach Sean McVay has not been playing his starters in the preseason and basically has been just going through the motions. The Rams have scored just 23 points in three games and they also have only allowed 34 points.
Their games are averaging 19 points. Also, Houston was shutout last week against Dallas. The under is the bet here.
PICK 4: Buccaneers-Cowboys under 33.5
Many totals are low this week because the expectations for sloppiness. The Cowboys have been playing in low-scoring games all month.
They have scored 57 points and allowed 27 points. Thus, their games are averaging 28 points. Games featuring Tampa Bay are averaging around 37 points. Still, I like the under here.
PICK 5: Raiders +2.5 over Seahawks
This is my favorite bet of the week. The Raiders are offering big value here as an underdog. Oakland coach Jon Gruden loves the preseason almost as much as Harbaugh does. Gruden is 36-17 in the preseason.
Oakland is 3-0 this summer and Gruden is 6-1 in the preseason in the past two summers combined. Sure, he went 4-12 in the regular season last year, but Chucky owns the preseason. Last week, when the Raiders hit a field goal to beat Green Bay as time expired, Gruden celebrated like he won the Super Bowl again.
The Raiders have a young roster and Gruden is clearly trying to instill a new culture. I expect the Raiders to be more interested in this game than the home-team Seahawks.