The WNBA is a sport that will be on the rise and will grow more and more as the betting industry grows. Legalized sports betting could be the savior for a sport that needs more interest and marketing.
There are those, including myself, who believe the WNBA should go all in on gambling and offering an experience that other leagues do not. With that being said, the WNBA has some profitable betting trends bettors can take advantage of, based off of more than a dozen seasons of betting analysis:
Bad Teams Off Win
Bad teams are identifiable a few weeks into the season, so do not use this trend in the first month of the season. However, once the standings show their truths, bad teams off a win hit 60% ATS in their next game.
Why is that? It’s likely because regression is expected after performing well but that isn’t what happens, and you can take advantage of the public’s expectation of a bad team playing two straight good games is to your advantage. You will likely get some extra value here while the rest of the public pack expects a flat performance.
Should You Go Against The Public?
There is a common perception that fading the public will make you money in any sport. Blindly doing this will get you nowhere. However, blindly doing it in the WNBA will lose you money at just under 50% conversion rate. Stay away from a fading-the-public strategy.
Bet the Unders when both teams went over the total in previous game. This is a simple trend but hits 56% to the Under.
Perhaps a reason for this is because teams like to focus a little extra on defense after having a lackluster performance. WNBA teams bounce back well after Overs on the defensive side of the ball.
Reverse Line Movement is Key
When you see one team getting 80% of the bets from the public but the line moves toward the opposite team, this is reverse line movement and is the difference between bet and money percentage.. When you see reverse line movement this is a great indicator that the pros are betting heavy on one team
For a sport that does not get much love or action with bets, follow this trend. If a team is receiving 40% or less of the bets and the line moves in their direction, this team is 58% ATS historically.
Bet Big Underdogs
Double-digit underdogs is where it’s at in the WNBA.They are hitting 56% ATS. If you dig more into it, on the road they are 57% ATS. When the public betting on this team, they are hitting 62% as double-digit dogs.
Public dogs are a thing! Line moves of 1 or more points in their direction makes it a 66% ATS angle. Surprised? You should be. There is some excellent value in this league that few know about.
If you like 35% success rates, this trend is for you. Take the moneyline on underdogs when the line moves in their direction. That simple. Plenty of +400-and-above moneyline underdogs to take advantage of. The low percentage rate of winning at this does not matter as long as you are getting heavy return.
Bet Favorites in First Game of Season
This is clearly only good for one game of the season, yet a profitable spot. Favorites are 60% ATS in their first game. The better teams get it done to start the season. Fresh legs and rested stars are going to come up on top. The rest of the season favorites are roughly 50% ATS for favorites. Take advantage of that first one.
Zig when they zag. Find value in a league that offers great trends that have been consistent for a long time.
There are only a few games a day typically in the WNBA, so you can really dig into each team and spend some quality time handicapping each day. Oddsmakers to spend much more time on other sports and events, so you may end up getting some good lines to take advantage of over the course of the season.