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UFC Paris Odds, Picks & Predictions for Gane vs Tuivasa

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 8 mins

UFC Paris Odds, Picks & Predictions for Gane vs Tuivasa

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For the first time in the company’s history, the UFC Octagon heads to France for UFC Paris. The card features the top French MMA fighter in the world, Ciryl Gane, in the headliner against fellow heavyweight Tai Tuivasa. 

In addition, 11 other exciting fights are scheduled for the event. In our UFC Paris betting preview, we will take you through our UFC picks for the main event of the evening, as well as two other bouts slated for the card.

UFC Paris Main Event Best Bet

Ciryl Gane (-540) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+420)

The main event of UFC Paris is a five-round heavyweight bout between France’s Ciryl Gane and Australia’s Tai Tuivasa. Given the knockout power both men possess, I don’t expect this fight to go the full five rounds, and I believe Gane will get the knockout in front of his fans.

Gane is one of the best heavyweights in the game. Although he lost to UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou earlier this year, it was a very competitive fight and he was one round away from winning the belt. A former interim UFC heavyweight champ, the 32-year-old Gane made his UFC debut in 2019 and won the first seven fights of his UFC career before running into Ngannou. 

Before that, Gane beat top heavyweights such as Derrick Lewis, Alexander Volkov, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik to prove he’s one of the best fighters in his weight class. He is a very well-rounded fighter with knockout power, submissions, wrestling, a great chin, and some of the best conditioning in the division.

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Tuivasa, meanwhile, is a knockout artist through and through. Just 29 years old, Tuivasa made his promotional debut in 2017 and so far has racked up an impressive 8-3 record in the UFC, with seven of those wins coming by way of knockout. 

At one point, Tuivasa had lost three straight and was on the verge of being released. But since 2020, Tuivasa is undefeated with a 5-0 record, with all wins coming by knockout. In his last fight, he knocked out the aforementioned Lewis to pick up the biggest win of his career and land this matchup against Gane. 

If Tuivasa wins this fight, he will likely get a heavyweight title shot. However, it’s a tough matchup as Gane is superior in basically every aspect of MMA, aside from pure KO power.

Tuivasa has a puncher’s chance, but otherwise, this is Gane’s fight to lose, and that’s why the odds are so heavily in his favor. I believe he is the far more technical striker and he will be able to outlast his opponent and eventually finish him with strikes in the later rounds. Give me Gane to win as a -540 favorite on UFC betting sites, and for a prop, take the Frenchman to score the knockout victory.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane wins at -540 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Alternative Pick: Ciryl Gane wins by TKO at +130 with FanDuel

UFC Paris Betting Predictions & Best Bets

Charles Jourdain (-135) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+115)

Opening up the main card is a featherweight bout between French-Canadian Charles Jourdain and England’s Nathaniel Wood. This is one of the most exciting fights on the card, and I believe Jourdain will walk away with his hand raised in the “Fight of the Night” at UFC Paris.

Jourdain lost a highly-disputed majority decision to Shane Burgos in his last fight, but it was a fantastic performance and the UFC clearly liked what they saw as the promotion booked him to fight in Paris less than two months later. Just 26, Jourdain has been in the UFC since 2019 and his record since then is 4-4-1. 

That’s not great, but he has had several close losses that could have gone the other way, such as the Burgos decision. When you actually watch Jourdain fight, you can see how talented he is. He’s one of the best strikers in the UFC featherweight division and he has some of the best cardio in the weight class. He’s a tough fight for anyone at 145lbs, and this matchup against Wood is intriguing.

Wood is another great prospect at 145lbs. Just 29, Wood made his UFC debut in 2018 and he’s 5-2 so far in the promotion. That includes a decision win over Charles Rosa in his last fight back in July in what was his official UFC featherweight debut. He showed against Rosa that he is a terrific striker and has the size and strength to hang at 145lbs. 

The problem is that Jourdain is a huge step up on Rosa. Although Wood was able to style on Rosa in his last fight, it’s unlikely he will be able to do the same in this matchup. Wood is a very good striker, but Jourdain is even better, and that’s what makes this a difficult matchup for Wood.

I see Jourdain outstriking Wood and winning a decision in what should be a very exciting fight. Give me Jourdain as a small -135 favorite on betting sites, and take him to win by decision if you like props.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain wins at -135 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Alternative Pick: Charles Jourdain wins by decision at +250 with FanDuel

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Michal Figlak (-195) vs. Fares Ziam (+165)

On the preliminary card, undefeated Polish prospect Michal Figlak takes on France’s own Fares Ziam. Although Ziam is the hometown fighter in this bout, I’m going with Figlak to get the win.

Figlak is making his UFC debut in this matchup after going 8-0 on the European regional scene, with his last six wins coming in the Cage Warriors organization. At just 26 years of age, he is very young and still improving, which makes him an intriguing prospect in the UFC lightweight division. 

He is a very well-rounded fighter who has good striking skills but he is at his best when he is able to mix in his grappling and take his opponents to the ground. So far, it’s been a recipe for success as Figlak is unbeaten in his career.

Ziam, meanwhile, has already fought in the UFC, going 2-2 so far. However, he just hasn’t been all that impressive, as his two wins over Luigi Vendramini and Jamie Mullarkey were highly debated. In my opinion, he should be 0-3-1 in the UFC.

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At age 25, Ziam certainly has the opportunity to improve and show off new skills in his fights. However, we’ve seen that while he has solid striking skills, his ground game just isn’t there. If Figlak is able to get Ziam down to the mat, he should be at a big advantage in this particular matchup.

I have to go with Figlak to win this fight as I believe he will be the superior grappler and take Ziam to the mat and control him to win rounds. Give me Figlak as a -195 favorite on betting apps and if you want to bet on a prop, Figlak by decision is worth consideration.

The Pick: Michal Figlak at -195 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Alternative Pick: Michal Figlak wins by decision 

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.