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Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2023/24: Haaland's Four Goals Should Seal Golden Boot

Mark Fordham for Bookies.com

Mark Fordham  | 15 mins

Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2023/24: Haaland's Four Goals Should Seal Golden Boot

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Premier League Top Scorer Odds

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PlayerGoalsOddsBookmaker
Erling Haaland25 1/100 Bet UK
Cole Palmer21 40/1 BetMGM
Alexander Isak20 Bet UK 80/1
Ollie Watkins19 150/1 Unibet

Football betting sites still think Erling Haaland will be top scorer in the Premier League once again this season. The 23-year-old scored 36 goals in the Premier League last season, and he's scoring at a similar rate this season after pilfering 25 goals in 29 matches. He scored four against Wolves to firmly put an exclamation mark on the Golden Boot race.

The Manchester City forward didn't look like a sure thing to finish Premier League top scorer though, with Cole Palmer, Ollie Watkins, Dominic Solanke and Alexander Isak all within three goals of the Norwegian just last week.

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Haaland still looks most likely to top the Premier League scoring charts, and it looks like it will be Palmer or Watkins that finishes runner-up behind him.

Can Anyone Stop Haaland Topping the Scoring Charts?

Betting apps all still offering odds-on prices that Erling Haaland finishes top scorer in the Premier League this season.

However, those odds are not as slim as they were earlier on in the season. Bookies had to slash those prices as the Norwegian scored goals in a hurry during the early part of the campaign. Eighteen goals in the first 22 league games did put him on course for another record-breaking season.

As things stand, Chelsea's Cole Palmer is regarded as the biggest threat to Haaland's chances of retaining the Golden Boot. The midfielder has been nothing but prolific over the last few months. Eleven goals in six league games propelled him to joint top in the charts, but Haaland's 4 goal return against Wolves has left hiw with work to do.

Another challenger for the award, Ollie Watkins has also been integral to his side's fortunes this campaign. The English striker's goalscoring form has been more consistent across the season compared to Palmer's recent glut of goals, and he sits just two behind Palmer in the charts. A goal against Arsenal shows he is capable of finding the net against even the best teams in the league, and seems certain to score at least a couple more goals before the season is over.

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Haaland Back on the Goal Trail

29 games played, 25 scored. Erling Haaland continues to make finding the net look easy, and the bookmakers have effectively crowned him top scorer for the second season running despite his injury ruling him out for much of the season.

Two factors that will affect Erling Haaland's end-of-season tally will be how much Pep Guardiola rotates his squad to manage his fitness at the end of the season due to how much further City progress in other competitions, and whether he can stay injury free. However, Haaland did play the lion's share of the Premier League matches last term when fit and should be able to finish comfortably clear of the pack if he plays in the majority of City's games between now and the end of the season.

The main threat to Haaland in his pursuit of another Golden Boot is rotation due to the number of games he could play. The Man City treble hunt is very much on, and Pep will want him available for the Champions League games which could come at the expense of league minutes against poor sides.

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Who Are the Best Each-Way Bets for Top Scorer?

Football betting sites are no longer offering 1/3 odds for the first two places now we are getting to the business end of the season. Therefore, customers can eschew the idea of backing someone like Mo Salah and hoping he can hit the places at a big price.

You can now only make a guaranteed profit if you can identify the player who will finish with the most goals. Although there is the possibility of a tie at the top of the market with it being so close, as has been the case in previous seasons. The two closest challengers to the big two are Salah and Isak, but they're both too far back at this point.

It will be a tough ask to top the table from their current positions, as you would imagine they will need to score at least multiple goals per game for the rest of the season to have any chance of taking the award.

Previous Premier League Top Scorers

Prior to Haaland's runaway success last season, Son and Salah were tied on 23 goals at the end of the 2021-22 season. While the South Korean was declared the winner (by scoring the most non-penalties), most new betting sites deemed it a dead heat, meaning bets on both players were settled as a winner, with the stake halved.

Harry Kane obliged at odds of 6/1 the season before, although Bruno Fernandes ran into third at 33/1, and Leeds United striker Patrick Bamford was able to land a joint-fourth position at 150/1. This serves to highlight that there can be excellent value betting on an outsider on an each-way basis.

The 2019-20 Premier League season saw a 20/1 winner in the form of Jamie Vardy, with the Leicester City striker able to score 23 goals, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Danny Ings were able to notch 22 goals. The latter was priced at 250/1, and it’s generally the case that a player of this price runs into the places.

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How Many Goals Are Needed to be Premier League Top Scorer?

In the previous three seasons before the 2022/23 campaign, the winner(s) had scored 23 goals. Haaland's tally of 36 was an outlier, and it's usually been a far more modest number to win the top scorer prize. Two seasons ago, Salah and Son were five goals clear of Cristiano Ronaldo, while Salah and Kane were the only players to pass 20 goals the season before.

Vardy, Aubameyang, Ings and Raheem Sterling were all able to score 20 goals or more in the 2019-20 season, with Salah and then-Liverpool team-mate Sadio Mane dead-heating 12 months previously along with Aubameyang when the trio all managed to score 22 goals.

About the Author

Mark Fordham for Bookies.com
Mark Fordham
Mark spent over a decade as a sports reporter and editor with Goal.com and Bleacher Report. He is now a Content Editor at Bookies.com covering all manner of sports from the Premier League and cricket to the NBA and NFL.