2023 NCAA March Madness Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Sweet 16

Dan Kilbridge | 15 mins

It’s the most wonderful time of the year for college basketball betting.
The NCAA Tournament bracket is set and the March Madness stage is ready for one of the more wide open, seemingly-unpredictable installments in years.
Alabama is the No. 1 overall seed, and they are the overall betting favorite at online sportsbooks. No. 1-seeded Houston is also among the favorites to win it all out of the Midwest region, but the odds are longer than you’d normally see for a favorite in the big dance. And sportsbooks aren’t aligned on the pecking order, with plenty of variance in pricing across betting apps.
March Madness 2023 Championship Odds
For the first time, March Madness tips off with legal Massachusetts betting apps up and running for the tournament. Online Massachusetts sports wagering went live on March 10.
There’s always potential for chaos this time of year, but the 2023 NCAA Tournament looks especially ripe for buzzer beaters and Cinderella runs. The timing couldn’t be better, with legal online sports betting launching in the Bay State and more than 30 states now offering regulated college hoops wagering. If you are in New England, make sure to check out our Massachusetts sportsbook promo codes before placing your wagers.
The market is bigger than ever, with a massive array of game lines, player props and futures odds – bettors can even get action on whether or not there will be a buzzer beater on the first day of the tournament (+600), the first round of the tournament (+300) or at any point throughout March Madness (+100).
The college basketball lines are all fluid and will be updated every day throughout the tournament – stick with Bookies.com for up-to-date championship odds and picks for every game against the spread throughout the NCAA Tournament.
March Madness 2023 Friday Sweet 16 Picks
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Alabama
The Tide are sure as hell playing like the No. 1 overall seed in this tournament. They crushed Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Maryland in the opening rounds to stay on a tear, winning their last five games by an average margin of 19.2 points. Dangerous as it gets. The Aztecs are out of their depth here – Alabama might need a little time to adjust to the defensive pressure and tempo, but we expect the Tide to run away with it in the second half.
ATS Pick: Alabama
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Houston
The Hurricanes turned in a highly-impressive opening weekend with a close win over a scrappy Drake team and a convincing 85-69 victory over Indiana, in which they shot nearly 50% from the field and outrebounded the Hoosiers 48-31. This is one of those matchups where you’re forced to choose analytics or the eyeball test – Houston is No. 1 overall in KenPom’s rankings and Miami is second-to-last among the 16 remaining teams. All the numbers suggest that Houston should be giving a few more points here, and that’s what we’re going on.
ATS Pick: Houston
No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 6 Creighton
The Tigers are the darling of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but we believe Friday is for the favorites. They scored a monumental upset over No. 2-seeded Arizona while shooting just 16% from deep, then took out Missouri with an extremely impressive performance. Princeton has been pounding the boards to get here, but the Blue Jays run taller everywhere and we don’t see the Tigers getting a lot of good looks in the half court. Creighton will be a very tough out this weekend and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays get to Houston.
ATS Pick: Creighton
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas
This has the makings for an all-timer, with two very evenly-matched teams closing out the Sweet 16 Friday night in Kansas City. The Musketeers escaped a close one with Kennesaw State in the opening round and played much better in an 84-73 win over Pitt to get to this point. Texas did well to put down a hot Penn State team in the second round and oddsmakers have the Longhorns as a two-basket favorite. Xavier isn’t quite as sharp as the Longhorns defensively, but the Musketeers are the better 3-point shooting team and we expect this one to come down to the wire.
ATS Pick: Xavier
March Madness 2023 Saturday Elite Eight Picks
No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 3 Kansas State
This game has instant classic written all over it given the way these two teams have performed halfway through the tournament. The Owls just knocked off Tennessee for their 10th win in a row, erasing a five-point halftime deficit to reach the Elite Eight for the first time. The Wildcats came out on top of an epic overtime game with Michigan State, shooting 55.9% from the floor with just five turnovers over 45 minutes. Markquis Nowell stole the show with an NCAA Tournament-record 19 assists, and Kansas State is a team that can win in multiple ways. This should be back-and-forth all night, but we expect an up-tempo pace that favors the Wildcats.
ATS Pick: Kansas State
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 3 Gonzaga
The Bulldogs are back for another Elite Eight appearance, but it hasn’t been a cakewalk getting here. Gonzaga has now survived three close games and overcame a 46-33 halftime deficit to beat UCLA by three in the Sweet 16. This team has its weaknesses, but rebounding has been the difference in every single game. The Bulldogs have outrebounded their opponents by a 132-87 clip through three games of this tournament to make it this far, but they’ll meet their match Saturday in Las Vegas. UConn has been one of the best rebounding teams in the country all season, and the Huskies haven’t had to sweat yet with three convincing wins over Iona, Saint Mary’s and Arkansas. With Gonzaga’s edge on the glass neutralized here, they’re not sharp enough to take out a team that’s playing as well as the Huskies are right now.
ATS Pick: UConn
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