Clemson vs North Carolina ACC Title Game Odds, Picks & Predictions
Adam Thompson | 5 mins
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Clemson is out of the College Football Playoff picture for the second year in a row, a bizarre development after the Tigers made it to the postseason in six straight seasons from 2015-2020. This time, at least, they can still earn some hardware and regain control of the ACC with their seventh conference title over the last eight years.
There’s a cross-state offensive juggernaut waiting for Clemson at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, with North Carolina back in the ACC championship game for the first time since 2015. The Tar Heels gave Clemson all it could handle that night in a 45-37 loss and would love to pick off an upset win in their home state Saturday night.
We don’t expect to see the ACC represented in the CFP this season regardless of outcome, so this is a last hurrah for a conference that remains Clemson-or-bust for postseason purposes in the future.
Clemson vs. North Carolina Moneyline Pick
Clemson is reasonably priced at -305 on the moneyline on betting apps, which works as an outright or to include in parlays. North Carolina is a +255 underdog and could be considered a sexy upset pick given some of Clemson’s struggles this year.
The Tigers are no longer listed on the national championship odds board on college football betting sites despite an 8-0 run in conference – they got crushed by Notre Dame, 35-14, in early November and lost any hope of a CFP bid in last week’s 31-30 home loss to South Carolina. Those losses are certainly forgivable, but Clemson is always under the most pressure to run the table because they play in the weakest Power 5 conference.
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It’s been an adventure at quarterback to say the least, with junior D.J. Uiagalelei way behind schedule with his development. He was the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy ahead of the 2021 season but hasn’t been able to get out of his own way over the past two seasons.
Clemson is far from perfect this year, but we do like this matchup for the Tigers. They should be able to impose their will eventually, as they’ve done against weak defensive teams all season. We like Clemson to hit the moneyline at -305 in the ACC title game.
Clemson vs. North Carolina Point Spread Pick
Oddsmakers on sports betting sites have held steady on Clemson -7.5 throughout the week in what will be the first meeting between these two teams since 2019, when the Tar Heels came up short by a two-point conversion in a 21-20 loss.
We expect a more definitive performance from the Tigers in this one. We know the passing game has been a weakness for Clemson all season, but North Carolina has one of the worst secondaries in the country at 272.5 passing yards allowed per game. That will allow the Tigers to find balance on offense and get it going on the ground as well. Clemson has rushed for 200 yards or more in four of the last five games, including 237 last week against South Carolina.
Defensively, the Tigers have given up just 85 combined rushing yards over the last two games and the front seven has never looked stronger after a brutal showing against the Irish. North Carolina is above-average in the run game, but the Tar Heels aren’t good enough to keep the chains moving all night against this Clemson defense.
We also haven’t seen many close matchups in this game lately. The last five champions have won by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 32 points in that stretch.
We like the Tigers to cover their college football odds of -7.5 against the spread.
Clemson vs. North Carolina Over/Under Pick
This is a relatively high number, with the total set at 63.5 for the big game at Bank of America Stadium. That makes sense given the offensive numbers North Carolina has produced at times this season, while Clemson has really picked it up on offense in recent weeks.
However, we really love the matchup for Clemson’s defense and think they’ll have success making the Tar Heels one-dimensional. We’re not expecting a close game and the Tigers are built to grind clock way more so than in years past. The total has only gone higher than 63 in one of the last eight Clemson games. While casual fans might be inclined to hit the over, we’re grabbing Under 63.5 for our college football picks given the way these teams have developed throughout the season.