How US Women’s 13-0 World Cup Win Impacts Tournament Odds
The U.S. Women’s National Team recorded a historic beat down of Thailand to open their World Cup, winning by an astonishing 13-0 scoreline.
The soccer betting implications from that game are absurd. Odds across the entire tournament shifted as a result, from overall winner, to Golden Boot, to individual games going forward. Even some of the expected changes came as a surprise by just how much the odds changed.
With all the social media buzz and interest in the U.S. Women's team, it remains to be seen if there will be an uptick in USWNT betting. The team has always been extraordinarily popular among the public and sports bettors alike.
How Odds Affecting the USWNT Changed
Let’s start with the odds that directly impact the U.S. Team.
Team USA Takes Stranglehold of Group F Odds
Group odds go up and down, so it’s not always easy to compare the before and after. The odds on the U.S. to win the group were already heavy at -560, with Sweden at +350, Chile +3000, and Thailand +10000.
The odds on the U.S., comparatively, didn’t change much. They increased to -835, and Sweden increased to +450. The more telling shift is that on Chile and Thailand. Despite a decent showing against Sweden, Chile skyrocketed to +100000. Thailand also hit six digits at +500000.
Going forward, as highlighted in our Women’s World Cup betting tips, the U.S. is going to have some lengthy over/unders to meet. The U.S./Chile line was banged up from 4.5 to 5.5 overnight after the initial lines released late Tuesday afternoon.
U.S. and France Create Separation in Tournament Winner Odds
Additionally to the group, going into their first match, the U.S. had fallen behind France as the favorite of the tournament. France was seen at +300 and the U.S. at +350. England had shortened their odds as well to +600, passing Germany who were sitting at +700.
The result of the match pushed the U.S. back to tournament favorite at +250. Surprisingly, France’s odds also shortened to +275. The two games were wholly unrelated, but the U.S. and France had the two most dominant performances of the first round, helping establish themselves as the easy front-runners.
Alex Morgan Running Away with Golden Boot
Odds for the Golden Boot also took a turn. Brazil’s Christiane had one of the best performances of Matchday 1, scoring a hat trick against Jamaica, and was leading the race at a comfortable +300, being trailed by Jenni Hermoso at +600 after scoring a pair of penalties.
Then Alex Morgan scored five. She became the new favorite at astounding -500 odds after starting the day at +1100. Megan Rapinoe, despite only having a single goal, ended up higher than Rose Lavelle and Sam Mewis, who both scored braces.
How Odds Affecting Other Countries Changed
As mentioned before, the odds for France to win the World Cup shortened after the USA’s thrashing of Thailand. Odds for everyone else increased at least +100. England got bumped to +700, Germany to +800. Both sides will need dominant shows in their own games if they want to cut their odds.
The Dutch also saw their odds jump from +900 to +1100, and Spain increased from +2000 to +2500. The Spanish are tied with Australia at +2500, despite the fact that Australia was upset in their first game by Italy.
Simply put, nobody else in the tournament has looked as dominant in their matches as the U.S. and France, resulting in the two of those separating themselves from the pack. Norway had a decent show as well but has France in their group.
Thailand Expected to Concede More Goals
Going back to Group F odds, it’s an amusing thought that Thailand’s odds, in fractional form, are 5000/1, the same odds that Leicester City famously had before their historic run to win the Premier League in 2015-16. We know that it’s certainly possible, but it’s definitely not likely.
Oddsmakers certainly seem to think that the 13-0 loss was more a condemnation of Thailand than the U.S. being simply that much better than the rest of the world, because the over/under for Thailand vs Sweden is 6.5. Can Sweden score 7 goals and hit the over? Solid maybe, I wouldn’t bet either way.
The odds of Sweden winning the match are at a monstrous -10000, and the over/under is offered irregularly (they’ve gone up and down several times while writing this article). The over is also the lower odds of the option, which is a little surprising seeing that Sweden only managed to score two on Chile.
The show from the U.S. opened up some interesting options for betting on Thailand matches going forward. Predicting an exact score always gets decent odds, but predicting a 6 or 7 to nil win for Sweden nets +650 odds, the lowest for any possible score for the match.
Additionally, a 9-0 win nets you +800 odds, but a 4-0 nets you +900. Additionally, odds are not being offered for Sweden to shut out Thailand. Have some fun poking around with these odds before the game starts, there’s some interesting combinations available.