By Bill Speros | | 13 mins
Most Bet On Week 14 NFL Games: Bills Circle Wagons Against Tom Brady
The showcase game of Week 14 of the NFL betting season features the battered Buffalo Bills playing at Tampa Bay against their long-time nemesis Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.
Three of the league’s 14 playoff spots mathematically are in range of being claimed. The Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers all face scenarios that could see them in the playoffs come Monday morning. Each team needs a win or tie, and some help, but ‘tis the season to be thinking postseason.
A potential Super Bowl 56 preview is set for kickoff late Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. The Bills-Buccaneers contest will likely be the most-bet game of the day and could see one of the highest handles of the season. The Buccaneers are the favorites at +500 at FanDuel to repeat as NFL champions. The Bills are +1000 at the same site to win their first NFL crown.
The Bills continue to be the among the favorites – along with the Kansas City Chiefs and Patriots – to win the AFC. Bettors who want to back the Bills to capture the AFC title can get +500 at SugarHouse , while the Chiefs are +350 and Patriots are +375 at the same site. The Buccaneers are priced at +260 at SugarHouse to win the NFC.
RELATED: NFL Week 14 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game
The Bills have lost an ability to deliver consistently, alternating wins and losses in consecutive games since Week 5. Last week, it was Buffalo’s turn to lose. The old nightmares returned for Bills Mafia as the New England Patriots marched into Orchard Park with the top seed in the AFC, ran on 45 of 48 plays, and left with a 14-10 win and a clear hold on first place in the AFC East.
Bills-Buccaneers Odds Report
The conditions will be much more pleasant for fans and conducive for offense on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the latest NFL odds :
Check out: Bills vs Buccaneers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
This game opened with host Tampa Bay as 4.5-point favorites, according to our consensus look at the action from several top sportsbooks. The spread has softened to between 3 and 3.5 points. The total is a dizzying 53.5 points at BetMGM. Forget about that Monday night fiasco when it comes to the Bills' scoring here. Meanwhile, Brady leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns.
The Buccaneers are +125 on the moneyline at DraftKings, while the Bills are -140 at DraftKings. The public backs the Buccaneers with 63% of the spread handle and 62% of the moneyline handle, according to our consensus analysis at Caesars Sportsbook and elsewhere.
New bettors who want to back the Bucs or Bills can bet $1 and win $100, plus receive a 20% deposit bonus, by using our latest DraftKings promo code.
Mobile sports betting in New York was approved by regulators earlier this month. It is expected to be active by the Super Bowl.
Florida bettors enjoyed a month of mobile sports wagering before the Hard Rock sports betting app was shut down following three decisions in federal court junking the gaming compact between the Seminole Tribe of Florida and the state that allowed the practice.
The fate of the compact and online betting in Florida now rests with the federal appeals court in Washington. Other plans to legalize sports betting in the Sunshine State won’t go into effect until 2023 at the earliest.
NFL CHAMPION: Super Bowl 56 Odds For All 32 Teams Plus NFL Futures Odds
Brady Extends Lead On MVP Field
Tom Brady bolstered his edge in the NFL MVP betting race with his performance in Week 13. Here’s a look at the latest prices in the MVP market:
NFL MVP Odds
|Tom Brady||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+150 at BetMGM|
|Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers||+600 at SugarHouse|
|Kyler Murray||Arizona Cardinals||+750 at SugarHouse|
|Josh Allen||Buffalo Bills||+1000 at SugarHouse|
|Patrick Mahomes II||Kansas City Chiefs||+1100 at bet365|
|Dak Prescott||Dallas Cowboys||+1400 at BetMGM|
Allen will need a convincing win this week to stay a threat in his market. It remains Brady’s award to lose.
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Week 14 NFL Betting Trends
Dogs, Chalk Continue 2021 Tussle
After 180 games in 2021, underdogs have a 102-77-1 (56.5%) edge ATS. But last week the favorites rallied for an 8-6 record, costing sportsbooks along the way. Still, this entire season has been one of underdogs on and off the betting boards. The top seed in the NFC (Cardinals) and AFC (Patriots) did not make the playoffs last season. If that holds, it will mark the first time since 1992 that two teams secured home-field for the playoffs after missing the postseason in the previous year. Those teams were Pittsburgh and San Francisco.
Roger Goodell must be loving the fact that 19 teams have a .500-or-better winning percentage. Parity. Parity. Parity. And even better for Park Avenue, nine of those 19 teams did not reach the playoffs last year, including the top seeds as noted above.
With five weeks remaining, bettors and oddsmakers can’t relax given the continued threats of injury and COVID-19 protocol sidelining players and coaches. The Cowboys get Mike McCarthy back this week after he missed Week 13 due to a positive test.
The AFC has two critical intra-divisional games this week. The first-place Ravens play the last-place Browns in the North, and the first-place Chiefs play host to the last-place Raiders in the West. The top and bottom teams are separated by just two games. All four teams in both the AFC North and AFC West are .500 or better. The last time every team in multiple divisions had at least .500 winning percentages in Week 14 or later was 2008, according to the NFL.
RELATED: NFL Week 14 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game
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Week 14 Biggest Liabilities
Three games carry significant spread exposure in Week 14 based on our consensus analysis:
|CHI vs GB||GB -12.5||73%|
|SEA at HOU||SEA -7.5||71%|
|ARI at LAR||ARI -3||67%|
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Notable NFL Week 14 Line Movements
Here’s a look at Week 14 NFL odds movements of note on betting apps since they were released. Listed are the opening and current NFL Week 14 betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook that have moved 2 or more points:
|Game matchup||Opening Spread||Current Spread|
|Seahawks at Texans||Seahawks -6.5||Seahawks -8.5|
|Ravens at Browns||Ravens -1||Browns -3|
|Giants at Chargers||Chargers -7.5||Chargers -9.5|
|Lions at Broncos||Broncos -8||Broncos -10|
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
BUZZ: The Texans have all but given up. Last week, it got so bad Tyrod Taylor was replaced by rookie Davis Mills. The Texans on Wednesday cut linebacker Zach Cunningham because he was late for a COVID-19 test. Cunningham was quickly claimed by the Titans. Even without Jamal Adams, oddsmakers now like Seattle by more than a touchdown.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
BUZZ: The Browns are coming off a bye after losing to the Ravens 16-10 two weeks ago. The Browns have failed to scored more than 17 points in six of their past seven games. But the Ravens and Lamar Jackson are struggling, coming off a 20-19 loss last week to Pittsburgh in which Jackson was sacked seven times. Home field has become the difference here.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers
BUZZ: The Chargers saw their stock rise – and this line move along with it – with a 41-22 win at Cincinnati. Big Blue delivered another tepid performance with Mike Glennon at QB in a 20-9 loss at Miami. Now the Giants have to travel cross-country and face a team playing for a piece of the AFC West lead.
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
BUZZ: It might be too much to ask for the Lions to win two games in a row. But the line movement here seems counterintuitive. In addition to winning their first game in 364 days last week, the Lions saw their record rise to 8-4 ATS this season, tied for the fourth-best in the NFL. This appears to be a deal too good to pass upon.
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