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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 6 mins

Biggest NFL Week 11 Line Movements: All Eyes On Kyler Murray

Biggest NFL Week 11 Line Movements: All Eyes On Kyler Murray

Injuries and COVID-19 protocols have left a major impact on several betting lines in Week 11 of the NFL betting season. Here’s a look at the line movements of note across the league.

Week 11 began Thursday night. The New England Patriots beat the Atlanta Falcons 25-0. For all you math majors out there: 28-3=25. For these two teams and their fan bases, the trauma and triumph of Super Bowl 51 is never going away.

Just ask Matt Ryan.

This weekend marks the start of the playoff-positioning season. The tracking impact of injuries on both the standings and on NFL odds are mandatory for bettors and fans.

The Arizona Cardinals had the best record in the NFL before injuries took down Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona sports betting must consider Murray’s status ahead of Arizona’s game at Seattle on Sunday before making any plays.

On the other side of the field stands QB Russell Wilson. The Seahawks were without Wilson for three games. Wilson returned last week against Green Bay, but was shutout for the first time in his career.

Those who backed the Seahawks with Geno Smith as their starting QB went 3-0 against the spread, even though the team was 1-2 on the field. Wilson returned last week and was getting 3.5 points at Green Bay but lost 17-0.

Go figure? No, just do your homework.

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Notable NFL Week 11 Line Movements

Here’s a look at NFL Week 11 lines of note that have significantly changed on betting apps since they were released. Odds via DraftKings.

GameOpening LineCurrent Line (Friday 1 p.m.)
Cardinals at SeahawksSeahawks -1Cardinals -2
Steelers at ChargersChargers -3.5Chargers -5.5
Lions at Browns Browns -10Browns -12
Giants at Buccaneers Buccaneers -12Buccaneers -10.5
Washington at PanthersPanthers -1.5Panthers -3
Jets at DolphinsDolphins -2.5Dolphins -3.5
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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: Seahawks -1

Current Line: Cardinals -2

The Buzz: As discussed above, the Cardinals were hit with injuries to their two most important players on offense. Murray sprained his ankle three weeks ago, and Kliff Kingsbury is not going to rush his return. Murray’s status officially remains up in the air, but most signs point to him playing Sunday. At least that’s what sportsbooks believe.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5

Current Line: Chargers -5.5

The Buzz: Both teams have key players under COVID-19 protocols, leaving their status uncertain until the weekend. The Steelers tied the Lions 16-16 without Ben Roethlisberger in Week 10. He was knocked out after a positive COVID-19 test last Saturday. Mason Rudolph was suitable in Big Ben’s absence, but a tie to the Lions is like a loss to the Lions. Chargers linebacker Joey Bosa is also currently in COVID-19 protocols. He will be clear to play after five straight days of negative tests ending on Saturday. The value here is with the Steelers +5.5, who are a playoff team with Roethlisberger.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Browns -10

Current Line: Browns -12

The Buzz: The Lions have not lost in November. They also have not won a game in nearly a full calendar year. Here’s the only number you need to know here: Detroit is 0-8-1 overall but 5-4 against the spread. This is another line impacted by another injury to another quarterback. Lions QB Jared Goff’s status for this game is questionable. He is nursing a strained oblique muscle and missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Tim Boyle would step in as the Lions QB. Boyle has been sidelined since breaking his thumb in the preseason. The Browns were annihilated by the Patriots in Week 10 but are likely getting Nick Chubb back from COVID-19 purgatory.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Biggest NFL Week 11 Line Movements: All Eyes On Kyler Murray 1

Opening Line: Buccaneers -12

Current Line: Buccaneers -10.5

The Buzz: This line was first posted before Tom Brady and the Buccaneers lost their second straight game – to Washington – last week. Brady has not lost three games in a row since 2002. Of course, Brady’s history against the Giants centers around a pair of Super Bowl losses, including one that wrecked a perfect season. The good news is that Eli Manning won’t be walking the door at Raymond James Stadium. Rather, he’ll be doing the “Manning Cast” with big brother Peyton on ESPN. The Giants defense has emerged as a spoiler of late. The 6-3 Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC South. Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS, but has covered all three of its double-digit spreads. Tampa Bay has failed to cover when the line was 9.5 points against Washington and Dallas. Be careful.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: Panthers -1.5

Current Line: Panthers -3

The Buzz: Cam Newton returned to Carolina last week and scored 2 TDs on his first two touches. Whether P.J. Walker or Newton starts on Sunday, Newton will see some significant playing time. How will that impact this game? Newton is facing his former coach of many years in Ron Rivera. The early money pushed this line once news of Newton return broke last week. But Washington then scored a big win over the Buccaneers. Like with the Dolphins-Jets game, cashing with the Panthers means they have to win beyond the margin of a field goal. Important.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5

Current Line: Dolphins -3.5

The Buzz: The Mike White Error came to a calamitous conclusion last week as the Jets crashed at home against the Bills in a 45-17 loss. The once-elite Joe Flacco will apparently be Robert Saleh’s QB of the future until rookie Zach Wilson is fully healed and prepared to take his weekly beating behind the Jets’ tissue-paper offensive line. The Dolphins won their Super Bowl in Week 10 with a Thursday night win over the Ravens in South Florida. This line movement is key because it pushed the winning spread for favored Miami over the margin of a field goal.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.