US Presidential Election Odds 2020 Weekly Rundown: Biden Dominates
Anthony Bennett | 5 mins
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As the country and its economy react to the coronavirus shock, the president's odds of remaining in office drift much closer to even. Meanwhile, the resurgence of Joe Biden continues on the Democratic side with another strong set of primary wins on Tuesday. On March 17, the primaries in delegate-rich states of Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona will vote.
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2020 Presidential Election Odds
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Odds courtesy of 888Sport's UK-facing betting site and subject to change.
Remember to keep checking back each week as we track where the top candidates stand and point out trends in order to give you the best view of the 2020 U.S. Presidential betting market so far, and where it might be headed.
What are the Odds Donald Trump Wins Re-Election?
President Donald Trump took the biggest drift of the post-Ukraine cycle this week and is now at -118. The coronavirus outbreak has not only embarrassed his administration, it's damaging his central claim to re-election: The economy. With the stock market having the worst day of the century, Trump's approval rating on the economy has gone from strong to anemic, though he still has his head above water.
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Trump announced intensive, expensive measures to shore up the market; these typically push a president further into unpopularity but are perhaps better for him than an economic freefall. That said, his numbers in swing states have Trump leading or within the margin of error against the two remaining viable Democratic candidate.
Joe Biden 2020 Odds
The former vice president, now at +110, is not only the Democratic favorite by the biggest margin of the cycle but has the best chance of taking the brass ring this fall. He won in Michigan, the biggest prize of "Second Super Tuesday," then he squeaked past Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Washington and trounced Sanders in Mississippi.
Biden is now the presumptive favorite to win a first-ballot majority at the Democratic convention; he holds an 881-725 lead in pledged delegates. His campaign staff has already begun pivoting to November’s general election. It's not completely locked up yet, but Biden backers and bettors have to be feeling confident.
Bernie Sanders 2020 Odds
In a two-person race, the news is binary, and Biden’s wins set two-time former favorite Sanders all the way back to +3000. The outlook isn’t great for Sanders because the remaining big states are heavily Biden-friendly. There are some states where Sanders is expected to do well and there is more debating ahead. But expect Sanders to drift even further without a truly game-changing event.
Mike Pence 2020 Odds
Perhaps the best indication of the gravity of the coronavirus situation in regards to odds this week is not the impact on Trump but how Vice President Mike Pence shifted. Pence’s odds went from +25000 to +3300 in a week. It’s not clear if he can distance himself from Trump’s scandals but he’s the most obvious candidate should Trump become politically unviable.
It’s unlikely that Republicans will change horses this close to the general election, but Pence is one to keep an eye on should the coronavirus and/or economic crisis get worse.
Hillary Clinton 2020 Odds
Former Sen. Hillary Clinton stayed at +5000. The unpredictability of the primary race has settled down and it seems increasingly unlikely that she could jump in at a brokered Democratic convention, which she has never shown an intention of doing anyway.
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Candidates with Longer than +10000 Odds
Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard stays at +50000 this week, the same as Green Party favorite Jill Stein.
Next Winning Party Odds
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The Republicans went from -177 to -121 and the Democrats closed in dramatically, going from +135 to -110.
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