The Octagon goes to Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico this Saturday with 13 fights, including a main event rematch between flyweight contenders Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. We will give our take on the main event plus two other bouts in the latest edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks, this time for UFC Mexico.

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UFC Mexico Main Event Best Bet

Brandon Moreno (-265) vs. Brandon Royval (+215)

The flyweights meet for five rounds or less in the UFC Mexico headliner when Brandon Moreno meets Brandon Royval in a rematch. Moreno is a -265 favorite at the betting odds, and I like him to win this fight.

Moreno is 30 the former two-time UFC flyweight champion and he has a 9-4-2 UFC record. The Mexican is one of the best flyweights the sport has ever seen, as evidenced by his two title reigns in the UFC, and his notable wins over the likes of Deiveson Figueiredo (twice), Kai-Kara France (twice), and Royval in their first fight back in 2020, which he finished by TKO. Moreno is a very well-rounded fighter who has knockout power on the feet, submissions on the ground, good wrestling, great cardio, and tremendous durability. He is coming off a split decision loss to UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in a fight where he was knocked down and hurt. It was a close fight, but he lost, and now he will look to bounce back against Royval in this fight.

Royval is 31 and he is 5-3 in the Octagon, with four wins by stoppage. The American has been a very exciting fighter ever since joining the UFC, although he has fallen just short of the title. Royval is coming off a decision loss to Pantoja as well in a fight where he outstruck his opponent but was taken down eight times and controlled on the mat. Going up against Moreno, Royval will need to show better than his 40% takedown defense to win. He certainly has a puncher’s chance on the feet, but if he gets taken down again, he might just lose another decision. It is also worth noting Royval took this fight on short notice, filling in for Amir Albazi.

Moreno won by stoppage the first time he fought Royval, but this fight is going to be more competitive this time around. That being said, I still like Moreno to get his hand raised again. Go with Moreno to win the main event as a -265 favorite and take him to win by decision for a prop.

UFC Mexico Best Bet: Brandon Moreno wins at -265 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Mexico Best Prop Bet: Brandon Moreno wins via decision with DraftKings Sportsbook

Other Mexico Best Bets

Mateus Menconca (-148) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+124)

The flyweights go at it when Mateus Mendonca takes on Jesus Aguilar. Despite Aguilar being the +124 underdog in this fight, I favor him to win and like him at these dog odds.

Mendonca is 25 and he is 0-2 in the UFC so far. The Brazilian was undefeated before joining the UFC, and he had a tremendous knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series to get a contract with the world’s top fighting league. However, he has not looked good so far in the UFC, first dropping a decision to Javid Basharat and then getting knocked out by Nate Maness. He is a very dangerous fighter with a high finishing percentage so far during his MMA career, but his performances so far in the UFC have left a lot to be desired about Mendonca’s future.

Aguilar is 25 and he is 1-1 so far in the UFC. The Mexican won eight straight fights, including a stoppage win on Dana White’s Contender Series, to earn a contract with the promotion. He was given a tough debut when he fought top prospect Tatsuro Taira, who submitted him, but he had an amazing second UFC fight when he knocked out Shannon Ross in just 17 seconds. Aguilar is a very dangerous submission artist and it appears his hands are improving as well. That makes him a live dog in this fight despite him coming into the bout with a reach disadvantage.

I’m guessing Mendonca is the favorite here because he has a nine-inch reach advantage, but I like Aguilar to win this fight. He has more momentum coming into this bout as he scored a highlight-reel KO in his last fight, and now he’s taking on an opponent who is coming off a KO loss. Go with Aguilar to win as a +124 underdog and take him to win by TKO for a prop.

UFC Mexico Best Bet: Jesus Aguilar wins at +124 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Mexico Best Prop Bet: Jesus Aguilar wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook

Muhammad Naimov (-340) vs. Erik Silva (+270)

The featherweights go at it to open up the prelims at UFC Mexico when Muhammad Naimov takes on Erik Silva. Naimov is a -340 favorite, and I like him to win this fight by stoppage.

Naimov is 29 and he is 2-0 so far in the UFC. The Takij fighter knocked out Jamie Mullarkey in his UFC debut on short notice as a big underdog, and then he beat Nathaniel Wood as an underdog yet again in his sophomore performance. He is a very dangerous fighter who has finished seven of his 10 career victories, and he enters this bout having won five fights in a row – including his last three in a row by knockout. There is a lot to like about Naimov and he looks to be a featherweight prospect to keep your eyes on for the rest of 2024 if he can get this win.

Silva is 36 and he is 0-1 in the UFC. The Venezuela native won eight fights in a row prior to joining the UFC, including an impressive finish on Dana White’s Contender Series. However, he had a disappointing UFC debut when he was submitted by TJ Brown, a fighter who is no longer on the roster. Given his age, the fact he lost his last fight, and the fact that Naimov is on a winning streak, the matchmaking for this bout doesn’t make a lot of sense. Silva is dangerous on the ground if he can get it there, but that seems to be a big if going up against Naimov.

I view this as a major mismatch and question the matchmaking for this fight. Look for Naimov to stop Silva and improve to 3-0 with an easy win here. Naimov has a good chance to knock Silva out, so go with Naimov to win as a -340 favorite and take him to win by TKO for a prop bet.

UFC Mexico Best Bet: Muhammad Naimov wins at -340 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Mexico Best Prop Bet: Muhammad Naimov wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook