2024 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends

Even in a Cheltenham Festival race with so little history, following trends can still pay dividends! So we've taken a look at the most important Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends, and used them to find you the best horses to follow on your horse racing betting sites for the 2024 Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle.

All eight winners:

• Had run 2-5 times that season
• Had run up to nine times over hurdles
• Finished in the first three last time out - five winning
• Had never won at Cheltenham before - only two had run

Seven of the race's eight winners:

• Had won that season (exception was maiden Concertista)
• Last ran no more than 47 days ago (Eglantine Du Seuil)

The race's first five winners:

• Had run in France and were trained by Willie Mullins 

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Key Trials for the Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle

A clear pattern with regards to stepping-stone races has yet to emerge, but Willie Mullins does prefer to test his contenders at Fairyhouse or Leopardstown, while the last two winners last ran at Sandown.

• The Grade 3 Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse has been won by two winners of this race (Limini and Laurina). Jade De Grugy won this for Mullins in 2024.
• Mullins's 2019 and 2020 winners were both beaten on their final start before the festival, so it’s clear that Mullins is capable of getting his runners to step up markedly on previous form on the big day.
• Telmesomethinggirl and Concertista contested handicaps before their wins in 2020 and 2021. The former finished third to Heaven Help Us, who also won at the 2021 Festival.

Trainer Trends

• This race has been dominated by Willie Mullins in its eight-year history. The Closutton trainer has won five, trained the first two home in 2019 and saddled four of the first five in 2020. However, in 2021 his best finisher was in sixth, he only got third in 2022 and his runners were well down the field last year.
• Henry De Bromhead has emerged as a serious source of good jumping mares overall, and in 2021 saddled the first and second, before getting the second in 2023 too.
• Harry Fry saddled the first British-trained winner of the race in 2022, when Love Envoi beat Ahorsewithnoname, and Jamie Snowden followed that up with You Wear It Well in 2023.

Jockey Trends

• No jockey still riding has won this race more than once, so there are no significant jockey trends to follow.

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How did the trends do last year?

You Wear It Well was the third horse not trained by Willie Mullins to win this race, and the third who had not run in France to win it, suggesting a change in profile of the winner.

The trends are not as strong in this race as in other Cheltenham Festival heats, as there have only been eight renewals, but based on the previous six winners, she was not the strongest trends selection.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2024?

Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle winner Jade De Grugy leads the charge for Willie Mullins currently. But Mullins has plenty of similar options, and with the trends not yet strong, it will pay to take a deep dive into their form for the strongest lines.

Also worth noting is the Gordon Elliott-trained Brighterdaysahead and Henry De Bromhead's Birdie Or Bust. The Fergal O'Brien-trained Springtime Promise is also of interest, having won the same Sandown event the last two winners landed before their Festival victories.

2024 Mares' Novice Hurdle Odds

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2023 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle Result