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2024 Aintree Grand National Trends - Key Stats for UK's Favourite Race

Adam Kenny for Bookies.com

Adam Kenny  | 12 mins

2024 Aintree Grand National Trends - Key Stats for UK's Favourite Race

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2024 Randox Grand National - Big Race Details

  • Date: Saturday, April 13th
  • Course: Aintree
  • Status: Grade 3 (Handicap)
  • Distance: 4m 2.5f (4m, 2f 74yds)
  • Age: 7yo+
  • Prize fund: £1,000,000 (£561,300 to the winner)
  • Live on: ITV and RacingTV at 4:00pm

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Aintree Grand National - Key Trends for 2024 

  • Age range: Since the turn of the century, only two horse outside of the 8-11 age range has won the Grand National. Seven of the last eight winners have been aged eight or nine.
  • Experience edge: Every winner in the last 11 years bar one had already run at least 10 times over fences. 2022 winner, Noble Yeats, being the exception.
  • KEY STAT - Avoid the long-layoffs: 30 of the last 31 winners ran within the previous 55 days, while 24 of the last 30 ran within 34 days!
  • National newbies: 13 of the last 15 Grand National winners were having their first run in this unique race. Tiger Roll was a notable exception when winning a second time in 2019.
  • Luck of the Irish: 18 of the last 23 winners were Irish-bred, although not necessarily trained in Ireland.
  • Mares don’t do well: 13 mares have won the Grand National but the last one was way back in 1951 - 73 years ago!
  • Stamina sway: 28 of the last 32 Grand National winners had won at least one chase over three miles or further.
  • Graded performer: Since the turn of the century, every Grand National winner bar one had been at least placed in a Grade 3 contest or higher.

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Trainer Trends

Nicky Henderson has trained more winners than anyone at the three-day Aintree meeting, but the six-time champion trainer is still searching for his first Grand National winner. Zongalero, his first runner in the race in 1979, finished second and remains to this day the closest he has come to landing the big prize.

Gordon Elliott has won the race three times since 2007, including in 2018 and 2019 with Tiger Roll, and he is likely to have plenty of chances in 2024. As many as 14 of the runners could be Elliott's, though that's likely to end up in single digits by the time the race starts. Previous Cheltenham Festival winner Galvin looks to be his best chance, if odds at the best horse racing betting sites are to be believed.

Irish trainers have done particularly well in the race since the turn of the century, winning the race 11 times, including five of the last seven.

High-profile British trainers like Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies and David Pipe have all struck with a winner in recent years. Lucinda Russell is the most successful British trainer in recent times, having two winners in the last six years, including last year's comfortable winner Corach Rambler, who is the favourite once again this year with most betting apps.

Jockey Trends

Rachael Blackmore became the first female rider to win the Grand National when she steered Minella Times to an emphatic success in 2021, but her mount was badly hampered and brought down in the race 2022.

Derek Fox is the only current jockey who has landed the prize more than once, having been on board One For Arthur in 2017 and Corach Rambler in 2023. He will also be aboard Corach Rambler again in 2024 and is likely to go off a healthy favourite at most UK betting sites.

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2024 Randox Grand National - Which Horses Fit The Trends This year?

2022 winner, Noble Yeats, was only able to finish fourth when trying to repeat last year and re-opposes this year having been hurdling this season. He'll be carrying a pound less than the top weight, but that's close enough. No horse has carried top weight victory since Red Rum in 1974. Cross the former champ off your lists.

Last year's winner, Corach Rambler, fits all of the key trends and looked in fine fettle when finishing strongly for a third place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. He is likely to go off a solid favourite, but for good reason.

I Am Maximus is a horse that fits plenty of the key trends for this year's race. The Willie Mullins-trained horse has only run in nine chases but laid down something of a marker last time out in February when beating last year's runner-up, Vanillier, by 14 lengths at Fairyhouse.

A higher priced horse that fits most of the trends is Gary Moore's Nassalam, who was pulled in the Gold Cup this year. He is slightly younger than recent trends would suggest at seven, but he has won a graded race way over three miles and is running in the race for the first time.

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It often pays to keep an eye on Grand National entries that have done some racing over hurdles that season as it indicates that connections have been looking to protect their handicap mark.

One such runner is Vanillier, who has been campaigned with this race in mind all season. This nine-year-old fits many of the key trends thanks to a three-mile point success, 13 career chase starts and a place in a grade three contest last time out at Fairyhouse

He’s got Grand National experience having finished second in the race last year. He's Irish trained, is set to carry a nice racing weight and appears to tick most boxes from a trends point of view. 

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Previous Grand National Winners

  • 2023 Corach Rambler (8/1) Trainer: Lucinda Russell; Jockey: Derek Fox
  • 2022 Noble Yeats (50/1) Trainer: Emmett Mullins; Jockey: Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
  • 2021 Minella Times (11/1) Trainer: Henry De Bromhead; Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
  • 2020 No Race
  • 2019 Tiger Roll (4/1F) Trainer: Gordon Elliott; Jockey: Davy Russell
  • 2018 Tiger Roll (10/1) Trainer Gordon Elliott; Jockey: Davy Russell
  • 2017 One For Arthur (14/1) Trainer: Lucinda Russell; Jockey: Derek Fox
  • 2016 Rule The World (33/1) Trainer: M F Morris; Jockey: David Mullins
  • 2015 Many Clouds (25/1) Trainer: Oliver Sherwood; Jockey: Leighton Aspell
  • 2014 Pineau De Re (25/1) Trainer: Dr Richard Newland; Jockey: Leighton Aspell
  • 2013 Auroras Encore (66/1) Trainer: Sue Smith; Jockey: Ryan Mania

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About the Author

Adam has worked in online betting for pretty much his entire adult life. Having spent over a decade working for some of the biggest online bookmakers in their operations and content teams, NFL and fantasy NFL are Adam's main focus, but there's always room for some golf, horse racing and soccer, particularly soccer card markets.