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Ballon d'Or Betting: Latest Odds and Analysis for 2023

Matthew Glazier for Bookies.com

Matthew Glazier  | 14 mins

Ballon d'Or Betting: Latest Odds and Analysis for 2023

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2023 Ballon d'Or Latest Odds*

TeamBest OddsBookmaker
Lionel Messi1/8 William Hill
Erling Haaland13/2 bet365
Rodri50/1 bet365
Kevin De Bruyne50/1 William Hill
Vinicius Junior50/1 bet365
Kylian Mbappe66/1 William Hill
Karim Benzema100/1 William Hill
Harry Kane100/1 bet365

*Odds up to date as of September 7, 2023

The 30-man shortlist for the 2023 Ballon d'Or has been announced, with England's Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka among the nominees. We've also seen no fewer than seven Manchester City players feature on the shortlist, although the betting sites and best betting apps only give Erling Haaland a realistic chance of lifting the award in October.

The odds-on favourite is Lionel Messi, with the Inter Miami forward bidding to secure an eighth Ballon d'Or, and it's hard to bet against a legendary player who captained Argentina to a 2022 World Cup success in Qatar. Haaland did help Manchester City to a historic treble last season, and the Norwegian is second favourite on the market, while Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne are also among the market leaders, although the pair are trading at a much bigger price.

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Ballon d'Or Number Eight For Messi?

Lionel Messi has won the FIFA Ballon d'Or an incredible seven times, with many regarding the 36-year-old as the greatest player of all time. The forward helped Argentina land the 2022 World Cup last December, with the former Barcelona and PSG star highly instrumental in helping his country record this incredible achievement.

It would be no surprise if Messi was able to land the Ballon d'Or for the eighth time in October, with most football betting sites installing him as the odds-on favourite following the nominations. After scoring throughout the World Cup, he was able to find the net twice in the final against France before firing home in the victorious penalty shootout.

Messi won his second FIFA World Cup Golden Ball in Qatar and returned to Paris Saint-Germain for the remainder of the 2022/23 season, although he has since made a switch to Inter Miami. The 36-year-old is now lighting up the stage in the MLS, and it would be a surprise if anyone was able to prevent him winning award number eight. 

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Haaland May Have to Wait for First Ballon d'Or

Manchester City won the 2022-23 Champions League to make it a treble after previously securing a fifth Premier League title in the space of six seasons along with an FA Cup success. City owed plenty to the scoring feats of Erling Haaland, who managed to score an incredible 52 goals in 53 appearances for Pep Guardiola's side.

Haaland has truly announced himself on a world stage in the past 12 months, and new betting sites anticipate that he will end up finishing second in the 2023 Ballon d'Or voting. He has started the 2023/24 season scoring at a rate of knots for the Cityzens and recently pilfered a hat-trick against Fulham. The forward won the PFA Player of the Season last term. 

He averaged more than a goal per game in the Premier League last season and was able to fire home four hat-tricks domestically, while he also scored 12 Champions League goals, helping City overcome Bayern Munich and Real Madrid on the way to the final before a victory against Inter Milan. But does he stand any chance of getting more votes than Messi?

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Mbappe Still Awaiting First Ballon d'Or Award

After a tumultuous summer where Kylian Mbappe looked set to make a switch to Real Madrid, the forward has remained in place at Paris Saint-Germain. The 24-year-old started the 2023/24 season with a bang, and he has long been ear-marked as someone who can lift a Ballon d'Or, although the wait is set to continue for the former Monaco man.

Mbappe was the top scorer at the 2022 World Cup and lit up the stage in Qatar, while the PSG attacker has been made captain of the France national team. However, the fact that PSG were once again underwhelming in the Champions League last term means that we're unlikely to see him challenge former team-mate Messi in October.

Mbappe finished sixth in the 2022 Ballon d'Or standings and will continue to demonstrate that he's the best player on the planet, although the 2023 awards might see him end up in a similar position. Perhaps it will be 2024 where the player can shine for France at the European Championships and canvas enough votes to secure this prestigious award.

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Kevin De Bruyne Should Record Another Top Ten Finish

Kevin De Bruyne was wowing everyone in the Bundesliga with his performances for Wolfsburg before Manchester City decided to sign the Belgian for what seemed like a princely sum of £50 million.

City haven't looked back since, and KDB has now been a regular when it comes to Ballon d'Or nominations. He finished third in the 2022 standings, but the big downside to his prospects for 2023 is that Belgium exited the 2022 World Cup at the group phase. The midfielder was unable to reproduce the level of performance that has seen Manchester City land multiple Premier League titles during his time at the Etihad.

Even so, De Bruyne remains the ticking heartbeat of the Manchester City team who were able to win last season's Champions League to complete the treble. The fact that the midfielder is currently injured means that he is likely to finish further down the pecking order this time around, with some of his club team-mates potentially leapfrogging him. 

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Mohamed Salah

Kane Hits the Ground Running for Bayern Munich

Harry Kane finished 21st in the 2022 Ballon d'Or standings, and we might see the Bayern Munich forward work his way up the standings in 2023. Since arriving in the Bundesliga, the former Tottenham forward found the net away to Werder Bremen before bagging a brace at home to Augsburg.

Kane captained England at the 2022 World Cup where the Three Lions were able to reach the quarter-final stage of the competition before losing to finalists France. Kane scored and missed a penalty against Les Bleus. The 30-year-old is regarded as one of the best strikers on the planet, and we're sure to see plenty of votes for him in October.

Perhaps Kane could yet become a Ballon d'Or winner before he hangs up his playing boots, with the striker now operating for one of the Champions League favourites, and there's the possibility that he could help England win Euro 2024 which would put the player bang in contention. 

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Bellingham Nominated for Ballon d'Or and Kopa Trophy

Jude Bellingham is a player with the world at his feet. The 20-year-old has already made 24 appearances for England, while he made 92 appearances for Borussia Dortmund and actually captained the Bundesliga outfit before making a big-money switch to Real Madrid this summer.

To say the midfielder has made a flying start for Los Merengues is an understatement. Bellingham has scored in each of his first four matches for the Spanish side, with the player being the only Englishman who has been nominated for the 2023 Kopa Trophy. 

It's reasonable to assume that Bellingham has a strong chance of landing this Under-21 award, while the Real Madrid starlet is also part of the 30-man shortlist for the actual Ballon d'Or award, and we might find that he finishes high up the standings. 

About the Author

Matthew Glazier for Bookies.com
Matthew Glazier
Matthew Glazier, the former Head of Marketing at bet365, is a veteran in the online betting industry and contributes to Bookies.com.