Champion Chase Trends for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

2025 Cheltenham Champion Chase Trends

One of the highlights of the Cheltenham Festival every year, the Queen Mother Champion Chase is one that often follows trends closely. Check out everything you need to know about the race before getting involved at UK betting apps.

The last 10 winners:

• Were aged up to 10 years old
• Last ran at least 32 days ago, the majority having a break of more than 45 days
• Had six or more starts over fences (with at least five wins)
• Were trained in Britain or by Henry De Bromhead or Willie Mullins

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Had run at least twice at Cheltenham before, five of which were previous winners here. Only Energumene before his 2022 win had never run at the track
• Had won at least one Grade 1 (Captain Guinness)
• Had won one of their last three starts (Politologue)
• Had two or more starts that season (Altior in 2018)
• Had won that season (Politologue).

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Finished in the top three in their last race (Politologue and Special Tiara). Five won last time out, but not the four most recent winners.
• Had won two or more Grade 1s (Put The Kettle On, Captain Guinness).
• Had their last run before Cheltenham in Britain (Put The Kettle On, Captain Guinness).

Key Trials Of The Last 10 Years

Five of the last 10 winners ran last time out in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot, with two-time champion Energumene doing so but failing to win at Ascot before going on to win at Cheltenham. Two Champion Chase winners have won that race prior to Cheltenham victory, though so 2025's winner Jonbon will likely be popular picks for people with Cheltenham free bets.

Altior, who romped home in 2018, won the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Fox Norton and Module were also winners of that race before they placed in the Cheltenham Champion Chase. Master Chewy won this year with Edwardstone a distant last.

The Arkle Novices' Chase looks an obvious pointer towards future Champion Chase victory, but there's been a trend lately of that race's winner graduating instead to the Ryanair Chase. Having said that, if they take part they often win. The winners of the 2012, 2017 and 2020 Arkles won the following year's Champion Chase. El Fabiolo attempted to add to that list after winning the Arkle in 2023 but failed to capture the Champion Chase crown.

Trainer Trends

• Nicky Henderson boasts a phenomenal record in this race with a 45% strike rate - five winners from 11 runners in the last 12 years - but has entered the race just once since 2019.
• Paul Nicholls, along with Henderson and Tom Dreaper, is the most successful trainer with six wins in this race. Politologue in 2020 was his most recent victory, but he's managed just a third and two fourths since.
• Henry De Bromhead has saddled three winners from 13 runners in the last 10 renewals, including two of the last four and 2024's winner Captain Guinness.
• Willie Mullins won it in consecutive years with Energumene and was runner up last year as Gentleman De Mee finished behind Captain Guinness.

Jockey Trends

• Rachael Blackmore became the first female jockey to win the race last year, bettering her third in 2022 and second in 2023.
• Paul Townend won it twice aboard Energumene but was pulled up riding heavy favourite El Fabiolo last year.

How Did The Trends Do Last Year?

Captain Guinness basically rewrote the history books last year as a 17/2 outsider, winning his first career Grade 1 in the process. He also came into the race off the back of 1P3 form, with that third coming in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown.

Six of the previous nine winners all had a rating of at least 170 but Captain Guinness bucked that trend with a 162, the lowest since Put The Kettle On's 156 in 2021. He would certainly have been a consideration for many, given he was runner up the year before and with Blackmore on board, but was certainly not a pick the trends suggested.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

All of this points towards Jonbon claiming victory at Cheltenham Festival for the first time. The nine-year-old has won each of his last five starts, beating the a host of 2024 runners in that time including Energumene, El Fabiolo, and Edwardstone, and will be coming off a 53-day break.

His last outing was a comprehensive win in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot, winning by over six lengths, and will likely come into this race as odds-on favourite with a rating of at least 170. However, Jonbon's only three career defeats have all come at Cheltenham, and that shouldn't be ignored for those looking to punt on UK betting sites.

Lats year's Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior is also worthy of consideration but doesn't come into this in the best of form, having recorded a second and a third at Leopardstown this season. The Willie Mullins gelding has been ridden by Paul Townend, and that pair won this race twice on Energumene, so it remains to be seen which horse Townend rides into the Champion Chase this time around.