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Ryanair Chase Trends for 2024 Cheltenham Festival

Jessica Lamb for Bookies.com

Jessica Lamb  | 11 mins

Ryanair Chase Trends for 2024 Cheltenham Festival

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2024 Ryanair Chase Trends

Finding the winner of the Ryanair Chase isn't always easy, so we've taken a look at the most important Ryanair Chase trends from the last 10 years for you to make placing wagers at your chosen horse racing betting sites a doddle. We've used them to find you the best horses to follow right now in the Ryanair Chase at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

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The last 10 winners:

  • Were aged no older than nine - a 10-year-old last won in 2011
  • Had run in at least six chases in their career and won at least two
  • Had run in at least three Grade 1s - seven were Grade 1 winners
  • Had won over at least 2m3f before
  • Had run at Cheltenham at least twice before, seven had won
  • Had an official handicap rating over fences of at least 161
  • Last ran no more than 82 days ago - in a chase
  • Had been first or second in one of their last three races - seven of the last eight winners finished first two last time out

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Had won on a left-handed course (exception Allaho in 2021)

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Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • The King George VI Chase at Kempton has thrown out three of the last 10 winners (Vautour, Dynaste and Envoi Allen). Fairytale horse Hewick won this season's renewal, beating 2022 winner Bravemansgame and former Ryanair Chase winner Allaho. Shishkin had been leading when falling two out.
  • The Ascot Chase has also thrown a winner in the last 11 years (Cue Card) and a host of placed finishers, including last year's second Shishkin.
  • The Clarence House Chase at Ascot has also been useful, producing one winner (Un De Sceaux) and several placed finishers. 
  • The Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham was used as 2019 winner Frodon's last run before his Cheltenham Festival win.
  • Allaho won a chase at Thurles before his two victories.

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Trainer Trends

Allaho's 2022 victory cemented Willie Mullins's position as the winning-most trainer in the Ryanair Chase. He's won it five times, all coming in the last eight years. Henry De Bromhead has won two in the last eight years, making it 7/3 to Ireland across the last 10 renewals.

Jockey Trends

Not including retired jockeys, only Paul Townend, leading rider for Willie Mullins, and Rachael Blackmore, leading rider for Henry De Bromhead, have won the race more than once in the last 10 years. Between them, they have won the last four renewals.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

There was no doubt that winner Envoi Allen ticked all the trends boxes, but the favourite Shishkin, who finished second, was also a very strong trends pick. Third, fourth and fifth, Hitman, French Dynamite and Ga Law, were rated too low and lacked Grade 1 experience and success.

Fury Road, who finished sixth, was a Grade 1 winner that had achieved a rating of 161 on the day, proving his current good form and class. He was a fit for trends generally but had very poor Cheltenham form.

Seventh Janidil had finished second, beaten 14 lengths in the previous renewal, and did fit the bill on trends, as did Willie Mullins-trained stablemate Blue Lord, who finished eighth. His jockey said he was never travelling, so clearly he had an off day. However, the final finisher, Chacun Pour Soi, was ruled out for being too old at age 11.

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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2024?

Applying the trends whittles the field down to four key contenders: Banbridge, Capodanno, Protektorat and Stage Star.

This foursome tick every trends box. They fit the experience, age and class profiles, and have all won over at least 2m3f. They've all run at Cheltenham at least twice, they've all won at the track before, and they are all trained by top Festival stables, with Capodanno representing the race's best trainer Willie Mullins.

He won the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last time out and clearly comes into the race in the best form of these trends picks, but Banbridge also won last time out in Grade 2 company, while Stage Star, trained by Paul Nicholls, is last year's Turners Novices' Chase winner.

Protektorat is the most unlikely runner of the quartet as connections prefer another tilt at the Gold Cup at this stage, but he would be very interesting dropping back in trip for the Ryanair Chase.

Ryanair Chase 2024 Odds

2023 Ryanair Chase Result

Position Name Price Trainer Jockey
1st Envoi Allen 13/2 Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore
2nd Shishkin EvsF Nicky Henderson Nico De Boinville
3rd Hitman 22/1 Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
 

About the Author

Jessica Lamb is a multi-media journalist who specializes in horse racing, cycling and sports betting and has worked on desks at the Racing Post and Irish Sun newspapers.