Kim Muir Trends for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

2025 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

The getting out race on Thursday, the Kim Muir is a handicap chase run over more than three miles that is limited to amateur riders. A tricky race to identify the winner, with everything from a 13/8 favourite to two 40/1 shots picking up the spoils in the last 10 years. Our trends can help you narrow down the field to a small number of potential winners and help you get a return from those Cheltenham free bets.

The last 10 winners:

• Had not won the Kim Muir before.
• Were rated on average 139, with no winner rated more than 145 (the limit), or less than 131.
• Had won no more than three chases overall, if any.
• Had finished in the first three no more than four runs ago.
• Had run at least twice that season, but no more than five times.
• Had run at least four times over hurdles and had won up to five times, but generally only once or twice.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Did not win last time out - but six of the last eight finished in the first three (Chambard won).
• Had not won more than once that season, seven had no wins (Chambard won three times).
• Had won no more than one handicap chase, eight won none (Chambard had won three).
• Were not French-bred (Chambard).
• Last ran no more than 50 days ago (The Package ran 96 days previously).

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Had run in at least five chases overall (exceptions; Mount Ida ran in three, Inothewayurthinkin four).
• Had run over 3m or further at least once (Milan Native, Inothewayurthinkin).
• Had never won a Graded race (Mount Ida, Any Second Now).
• Had not won at Cheltenham before, including all of the last eight winners (The Package, Cause Of Causes).
• Were not older than nine (12-year-old The Package and 10-year-old Chambard).
• Carried 11st 1lbs or more (Angels Dawn 11st and Chambard 10st 12lbs).

Seven of the last 10 winners:

• Had run in at least two handicap chases (Mount Ida & Milton Native none, Inothewayurthinkin one).
• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both in the race (Chambard, Angels Dawn, Inothewayurthinkin).

Key Trials in the Last 10 Years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it's often better to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide.

The Grade B Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival has produced two of the last 10 winners (Any Second Now and Spring Heeled). Perceval Legallois won this in 2024, beating Midnight Our Fred, who is currently near the top of the market for the 2025 Kim Muir.

The Grade B Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick's Christmas Festival has produced one winner (Domesday Book). Dancing Jeremy won the 2024 renewal, beating La Malmason. Last year's Kim Muir winner Inothewayurthinkin ran at the meeting but contested the Faugheen Novices' Chase instead.

In 2018 Missed Approach used Warwick's Classic Chase as a springboard to Kim Muir victory. This had also been contested by 2008 winner High Chimes. My Silver Lining won this in 2024, beating Galia Des Liteaux. The race was abandoned this year due to unsuitable ground.

2020 winner Milan Native was stepping up markedly in trip at the festival having stuck to his task when second in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park the previous month. 2024 winner Inothewayurthinkin was also a novice who was stepping up in trip, and 2021 winner Mount Ida ticket the novice box.

Trainer Trends

In the last 14 years David Pipe has saddled 24 runners in the Kim Muir, with two winners and two placed horses. He loves this race and is always worth following.

Gordon Elliott is emerging as a trainer to follow too. Elliott has landed two of the last 10 editions as well as saddling six placed horses.

Nicky Henderson has won the race three times, but his last victory came back in 2005.

Jockey Trends

This race is confined to amateur riders, though professionals rode all the 2021 runners due to pandemic restrictions placed on amateur sports people.

Jamie Codd has won two of the last 10 runnings of the Kim Muir for two different trainers, but he has now retired.

Derek O'Connor now looks like the amateur of choice. He has won the race twice in the last six years from five attempts, also for two different trainers. Last year's winner Inothewayurthinkin was backed into 13/8 favourite from around 12/1 once it was confirmed he was riding. Pay close attention to whatever he rides in the race for JP McManus.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

After the complete trends bust of Chambard in 2022, Angels Dawn was not a perfect trends fit in 2023 either. After 10 winners all wore a tongue tie or head gear, Chambard and Angels Dawn wore nothing as did the 2024 winner Inothewayurthinkin.

Inothewayurthinkin also lined up as top weight. Winning off the highest handicap chase rating since Any Second Now won off 143 in 2019, also for the same owner and jockey combination. Inothewayurthinkin won off 145, confirming a recent trend of horses towards the top of the handicap range winning the Kim Muir. Four of the last six winners have now been rated 141 or above.

He did at least fit the exposure trends, with no handicap chase wins, only four chase outings and no handicap hurdle win, which is common, while not a listed key trend. But he had done most of his chase running outside of handicaps, which is unusual, and was attempting to step up in trip.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

This is among the trickiest Cheltenham handicaps to predict this far out, but of those at the head of the betting, the horse to keep an eye on is probably Sa Majeste. This 140-rated horse took in the same Faugheen Novices' Chase as Inothewayurthinkin did on his way to Festival success. However, Sa Majeste did manage to win a handicap chase over three miles next time out at Fairyhouse so ticks even more of the boxes than Inothewayurthinkin managed to.

Sa Majeste is owned by JP McManus, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the race's top jockey Derek O'Connor get the leg up. Although Johnnywho is another option prominent in the betting.

The trends pick for the race looks to be Midnight Our Fred. He ticks every box in terms of racing exposure, with the required number of chase runs and wins in both his career and this season, plus he has the required number of runs in handicap chases. As an eight-year-old, he fits the profile, with seven of the last 10 winners being aged between seven and nine, and his rating means he gets to run here off 131. He hasn't won a Graded race, at Cheltenham, or last time out, and usually runs with a tongue tie so his profile matches up almost perfectly. The only issue here is he last ran on 27th December, well outside the 50-day mark.

2024 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Result