2023 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

The last 10 winners:

• Were rated on average 139, with no winner rated more than 143, or less than 134
• Had won no more than three chases overall, if any
• Had finished in the first three no more than four runs ago
• Had run at least four times over hurdles and had won up to five times, but generally only once or twice

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Did not win last time out - the last six have placed, including Chambard, the only last-time-out winner
• Had won no more than two chases, if any (exception Chambard, who had won three handicap chases)
• Were not French-bred - six placed out of 44 runners (Chambard)
• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both in the race (Chambard)
• Had run in at least five chases overall (Mount Ida ran in three)
• Had run over 3m or further at least once (Mount Ida)
• Last ran no more than 76 days ago (The Package)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Carried 11st 4lbs or more (exceptions Same Difference carried 11st and Chambard carried 10st 12lbs)
• Were not older than nine years (12-year-old The Package and 10-year-old Chambard)
• Had never won a Graded race (Mount Ida and Any Second Now had won a Grade 3 and Grade 3)

Key Trials in the last 10 years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it's often better to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide. 

The Grade B Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival has produced three of the last 10 winners (Any Second Now and Spring Heeled). Real Steel won this in 2022, beating Diol Ker.

The Grade B Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick's Christmas Festival has produced one winner (Domesday Book) and one placed finisher. Maskada won the 2022 renewal, beating Rebel Gold, who was also second in 2021.

In 2018 Missed Approach used Warwick's Classic Chase as a springboard to Kim Muir victory. This had also been contested by 2008 winner High Chimes. Iwilldoit won this in 2022, beating Mr Incredible.

2020 winner Milan Native was stepping up markedly in trip at the festival having stuck to his task when second in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park the previous month. 2021 winner Mount Ida was also a novice.

Trainer Trends

In the last 12 years <strong>David Pipe</strong> has saddled 24 runners in the Kim Muir, saddling two winners and two placed horses. He loves this race and is always worth following.

Gordon Elliott is emerging as a trainer to follow, too. Elliott has landed two of the last 10 editions as well as saddling five placed horses.

Nigel Twiston-Davies' 15 runners have yielded a winner and two placed runners.

Nicky Henderson has won the race three times but his last victory came back in 2005.

Jockey Trends

This race is confined to amateur riders, though professionals rode all the 2021 runners due to pandemic restrictions placed on amateur sports people.

Jamie Codd has won four of the last 12 runnings of the Kim Muir, for three different trainers. There's no doubt the horse he chooses is to be respected.

How did the trends do last year?

Chambard was a complete trends bust. He was the first French-bred to win since Juveigneur in 2005, carried less weight than any winner since High Chimes in 2008, and more crucially, had won three handicap chases, when none of the 10 winners before him had been so exposed.

He'd also won last time out - Ballabriggs in 2010 was the last winner to come into the race off the back of a win - and was the lowest-rated winner in 12 years.

He's also the only winner since 2011 to be victorious without wearing headgear, a tongue tie, or both, and the third horse aged older than 9 to win in 22 years. 

In short, if you focussed on trends for this race in 2022, Chambard would have been ruled out completely. He was such a trends bust that they have been almost completely rewritten for 2023.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

This is among the trickiest Cheltenham handicaps to predict this far out, but of those at the head of the betting, the horse best fitting the trends is last year's second Mister Coffey.

The eight-year-old is a maiden after six chase outings but has finished second at the Festival, in a Grade 1 chase and in three handicap chases. His handicap rating is going to be only a couple of pounds higher that last year, when he came into the race having only run three times over fences - and never at Cheltenham. The catch is that he already holds an entry in Tuesday's National Hunt Chase.

A couple that also stand out when applying trends: Mr Incredible, the Classic Chase second, and Panda Boy, the Paddy Power Chase third. They are trained by Willie Mullins and Martin Brassil and are highly tried over 3m and further, with limited handicap chase exposure and form in Graded novice chases.

Indigo Breeze, a maiden after four runs over fences, might be Gordon Elliott's leading hope. He has a similar profile to Mount Ida, but it's a slight concern he's set to be dropped in trip at the Dublin Racing Festival.

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