Crystal Ball: Fade Ohio State College Football Playoff Odds?
Dan Kilbridge | 5 mins
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The beautiful thing about college football betting is that the action never stops. That’s especially true in the college football futures market. Rather than just a flat preseason line on win totals, awards and conference winners, we get a brand new futures board each week with updated odds for things such as the Heisman Trophy, odds to win the SEC, certain teams to make or miss the playoffs, etc.
We’ll be picking a new futures bet to back each week throughout the regular season, looking for value in college football odds and jumping on lines before the big picture starts to come into focus. This week, we’re gazing into our Crystal Ball for one Big Ten futures bet regarding the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State To Miss The Playoffs (+110)
The Buckeyes are reeling following a 35-28 home loss to Oregon in Week 2. Ohio State was favored by -14.5 at most betting apps. It doesn’t leave Ohio State with much wiggle room in terms of the College Football Playoff, and the Buckeyes have some legitimate concerns early this season.
Ohio State’s secondary ranked last against the pass in the Big Ten a year ago and hasn’t looked much better through two games. Oregon was constantly a step ahead in the play-calling department and ran all over the Horseshoe to the tune of 269 rushing yards on 38 attempts.
Offensively, Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud has all the physical tools and threw for 484 yards on 54 attempts Saturday. But he’s struggled with his accuracy at times and missed several open throws that could have made all the difference against the Ducks. We saw the same thing in the Minnesota game, during which he completed just 59% of his pass attempts. Oregon was also without two of its best defensive players and still held the Buckeyes to 28 points on their home turf.
Ohio State has plenty of time to get it all corrected and make a run at the Big Ten title, but we don’t see them as a lock to win a fifth straight Big Ten championship. They’re currently -175 to do so at various sportsbooks and betting sites. And even if that happens, it doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot.
That’s why we love these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Buckeyes At Committee’s Mercy
Working through the CFP implications and scenarios, Ohio State is no longer in control of its own destiny. We know that because the committee already passed on a 12-1 Buckeyes squad in 2018 in favor of unbeaten Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame squads, along with 12-1 Oklahoma. Ohio State’s playoff chances now have a lot to do with the overall strength of the Big Ten, which looks good at the moment but could change in the coming months.
We also don’t know how that Oregon loss will look in December. The Ducks could run the table in the Pac-12 and shine it up a bit. If they don’t, the Buckeyes could get overlooked again for another one-loss team from the SEC or Big 12.
RELATED: Big Ten Odds, Betting Guide & Tips
If it came down to a toss-up between a one-loss Ohio State team and a one-loss Clemson team, we know the Tigers would almost certainly get the nod because they lost to a top-5 team on a neutral field and the Buckeyes lost as a two-touchdown home favorite.
We already know the SEC champion will get in. We also know the loser of the SEC Championship Game could get in if the rest of the resume is strong enough.
In the Big 12, Oklahoma has a pretty sweet path. The Sooners only play one ranked opponent in Iowa State, and they get them at home on Nov. 20.
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Oregon Loss Looms Huge
That loss to the Ducks just opens up a bunch of scenarios in which Ohio State plays great the rest of the season and still potentially misses the CFP. These one-loss scenarios and what-ifs are built on the assumption that Ohio State runs the table and wins out in the Big Ten. That’s not a given.
Ohio State does have an incredibly fortunate schedule, missing Iowa and Wisconsin and getting No. 10 Penn State at home. But there’s upset potential everywhere if the Buckeyes don’t solve their defensive problems in a hurry.
With a home upset loss already on the schedule and so many scenarios that have yet to play out, we think it’s a great time to jump on Ohio State to miss the playoffs at +110 with DraftKings ➜.