How Much Would You Make Betting On Jared Goff Each Week?
Bill Speros | 9 mins
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Jared Goff was traded to Detroit for Matthew Stafford and draft picks in the offseason as the Lions bet on the veteran QB as part of their latest rebuild. But how much money would you have made backing Goff in NFL betting markets each week of his career?
Goff brings a solid resume to Detroit. He was chosen first overall in the NFL draft by the LA Rams in 2016. He’s also earned a pair of Pro Bowl berths, won three NFC West championships, and quarterbacked the Rams to Super Bowl LIII.
During his five seasons in Los Angeles, the Rams were often a strong value pick in various NFL futures markets to win their division or reach the playoffs. Goff has solid career numbers: A 67% completion record, 18,171 yards passing and 107 TDs against 55 picks in his 69 career starts. But those who backed Goff against the spread have not enjoyed much success.
As a starter, Goff is 37-36-2 ATS in his career in 75 games. Contrast that with his 45-30 record outright with the Rams during the past five seasons. These numbers include the postseason.
Sportsbooks have generally overvalued the Rams – at least in terms of NFL spreads. Goff and the Lions likely won’t have that problem in 2021. In Week 1, the Lions are huge home underdogs. They’re getting 7.5 points ( -110 at DraftKings sportsbook ➜) against the 49ers.
Betting on Goff A Net Loss
Our system bets $100 on Goff ATS each week of his career, taking the industry standard -110 odds line available at most betting sites. Those who have backed Goff weekly since his 2016 debut using this system are in the hole $236.36. It might be a good opportunity to make back some of that money in 2021, especially considering the low expectations for the Lions this season and the availability of legal sports betting in Michigan.
If you eliminated Goff’s 0-7 start as a rookie in 2016, your return gets boosted to a net-plus of $463.30 over four seasons. That might make Michigan bettors more comfortable backing Goff and the Lions against a big line this season, like the line noted above in Week 1.
Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the Rams ATS records as noted via Pro Football Reference.
Top QBs ATS: Brady| Roethlisberger | Mahomes | Prescott | Rodgers | L. Jackson
Jared Goff 2021 Betting Futures
Now that Goff has shifted to the NFC North, he’ll be safely in the shadow of Aaron Rodgers and away from the glare and expectation of LaLa Land. The Rams had to give up two first-round picks and a third-round pick to get the Lions to take on Goff’s contract, which carries a $51.8 million price tag over the next two seasons. Let’s look at where Goff stands in terms of MVP and futures markets.
Jared Goff To Win NFL MVP
Odds: +12000 at FanDuel sportsbook ➜
The price is a borderline insulting. Yes, the Lions win total is 4.5 on most betting apps. But Goff’s number is worse than the price on the likes of Giants QB Daniel Jones ( +9000 ➜), Carolina QB Sam Darnold ( +9000 ➜), and Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence ( +9000 ➜). There isn't any reason to back this wager. If you want to risk $50 on a big return, spend it at your favorite online Michigan casino.
The Lions are +20000 to win the Super Bowl ➜. Detroit hasn’t won an NFL championship since 1957. That streak will continue into 2022 and beyond.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes leads the 2021 MVP race as the betting favorite at +500. Meanwhile, 2020 MVP Rodgers is next at +1000, followed by Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady at +1200.
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Jared Goff Most Interceptions In NFL
Odds: +800 at DraftKings sportsbook ➜
Goff will be targeting an untested and unheralded corps of wide receivers including Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. His best and most reliable target will be third-year tight end and Pro Bowler T.J. Hockenson.
D’Andre Swift will get a truckload of carries, but the Lions are working from the basement up in terms of offense. Detroit chose offensive tackle Penei Sewell in the first round. That screams rebuild.
Goff’s 13 picks last season in LA were tied for second-most in the NFL. Carson Wentz and Drew Lock led the league with 15 apiece. This is one number Goff could easily hit in 2021. Take Goff for most interceptions thrown in the NFL this year at +800 with DraftKings sportsbook ➜.
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Jared Goff Under 20.5 Passing TDs
Odds: -125 at DraftKings sportsbook ➜
Goff threw just 20 TDs last year with a Rams team that won nine of his 15 regular season starts and reached the Divisional playoff round. The Lions would be considered massive overachievers if they manage to claw their way to seven or eight victories.
It’s tough to take the under on any season total, especially when it’s a low number like this one. But it’s hard to envision Goff surpassing his 2020 TD total with this Lions offense, even with a 17-game schedule. Take Goff under 20.5 passing TDs.