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How The Matt Ryan Trade Impacts AFC QB Prop Markets
Bill Speros | 6 mins
The Indianapolis Colts have traded for Matt Ryan to be their starting QB. How does the arrival of Ryan and Russell Wilson in the AFC impact the potential passing and TD prop totals in the conference?
Bookies.com has examined the current starting QBs in the AFC after multiple offseason moves and now has projected NFL odds on which QB will lead the conference in passing yards and in touchdowns. Once sportsbooks release their odds on these QB prop markets, we'll update this article with those odds. But for the time being, this is our projection on how the recent deals have shaken up the markets.
Ryan is the Falcons all-time leading passer. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler, played 14 seasons in Atlanta, won NFL MVP honors in 2016 and once held a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. The Colts needed a bona-fide QB1 after dealing Carson Wentz to Washington before the start of NFL free agency.
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After news of the Ryan deal broke, the Colts odds to win Super Bowl 57 nudged up to +2500 from +3500 at DraftKings and +3000 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Ryan will be the Colts’ seventh Week 1 starting QB in seven seasons and the fifth starting QB since Frank Reich became coach.
How Does The AFC Stack Up At QB?
Given the significant changes at QB in the AFC during the offseason – and it’s not even April – how does the conference stack up at QB? Here are our projected odds on who will lead the conference in passing yards and touchdowns from the current 16 likely starting QBs in the AFC.
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AFC QB Passing Yards Leader Odds For 2022
Here are our projected NFL futures odds for which AFC quarterback will lead the conference in passing yards for the 2022-23 season.
| QB | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +100 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | Kansas City Chiefs | +150 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +200 |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +250 |
| Derek Carr | Las Vegas Raiders | +400 |
| Russell Wilson | Denver Broncos | +500 |
| Matt Ryan | Indianapolis Colts | +500 |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | +700 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | +750 |
| Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | +800 |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +1000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | Pittsburgh Steelers | +1500 |
| Mac Jones | New England Patriots | +1500 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins | +2500 |
| Zach Wilson | New York Jets | +2500 |
| Davis Mills | Houston Texans | +5000 |
Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps.
AFC QB TDs Leader Odds For 2022
Here are our projected odds for which AFC quarterback will lead the conference in passing touchdowns for the 2022-23 season.
| QB | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +125 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | Kansas City Chiefs | +125 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +250 |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +300 |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | +400 |
| Russell Wilson | Denver Broncos | +500 |
| Matt Ryan | Indianapolis Colts | +750 |
| Derek Carr | Las Vegas Raiders | +850 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | +1000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | +1200 |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +1500 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | Pittsburgh Steelers | +2500 |
| Mac Jones | New England Patriots | +3000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins | +3000 |
| Zach Wilson | New York Jets | +3500 |
| Davis Mills | Houston Texans | +7500 |
Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting sites.
Changes Rattle AFC QB Lineup
The Colts will be at least the fourth team in the AFC to start this upcoming season with a new QB.
Ben Roethlisberger retired after 18 seasons in Pittsburgh and a pair of Super Bowl victories. The Steelers signed Big Ben’s replacement in Mitchell Trubisky. The Denver Broncos started Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at QB in 2021-22 before dealing for Russell Wilson in a blockbuster deal. The Cleveland Browns cut short the Baker Mayfield era when they traded for Deshaun Watson last week.
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The Texans aren’t entirely sure on their starter. Houston used Davis Mills, a third-round rookie, and Tyrod Taylor at QB in 2021-22. GM Nick Caserio says the team is “going to start from scratch” at the QB spot.
Wilson and Ryan combined for 27 seasons with their former teams. They bring a skilled veteran presence to the AFC not seen since Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were battling for supremacy. Of the 16 quarterbacks projected to play Week 1 in the AFC, four have started in the Super Bowl: Patrick Mahomes II, Joe Burrow, Wilson, and Ryan.
Wilson and Mahomes each have one Super Bowl ring.
Our Pick For AFC Passing Leaders
BUZZ: Even with the addition of these newcomers, the AFC is remarkably top-heavy at quarterback. Justin Herbert could sweep both categories. As could Burrow, especially with his revamped offensive line. We like Burrow to take AFC honors when it comes to yards passing this season. If you’re looking for value on NFL betting markets, keep an eye on Derek Carr, especially with Josh McDaniels as his new head coach. The daring could even include a small wager on Trevor Lawrence. The TD battle is another toss-up. Herbert (38), Mahomes (37), and Josh Allen (36) were each separated by one scoring pass apiece last season. Allen has the edge here. Value can be found with Wilson, even in the tough-as-nails AFC West.
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