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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 6 mins

How The Matt Ryan Trade Impacts AFC QB Prop Markets

How The Matt Ryan Trade Impacts AFC QB Prop Markets

The Indianapolis Colts have traded for Matt Ryan to be their starting QB. How does the arrival of Ryan and Russell Wilson in the AFC impact the potential passing and TD prop totals in the conference?

Bookies.com has examined the current starting QBs in the AFC after multiple offseason moves and now has projected NFL odds on which QB will lead the conference in passing yards and in touchdowns. Once sportsbooks release their odds on these QB prop markets, we'll update this article with those odds. But for the time being, this is our projection on how the recent deals have shaken up the markets.

Ryan is the Falcons all-time leading passer. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler, played 14 seasons in Atlanta, won NFL MVP honors in 2016 and once held a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. The Colts needed a bona-fide QB1 after dealing Carson Wentz to Washington before the start of NFL free agency.


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After news of the Ryan deal broke, the Colts odds to win Super Bowl 57 nudged up to +2500 from +3500 at DraftKings and +3000 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Ryan will be the Colts’ seventh Week 1 starting QB in seven seasons and the fifth starting QB since Frank Reich became coach.

How Does The AFC Stack Up At QB?

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Given the significant changes at QB in the AFC during the offseason – and it’s not even April – how does the conference stack up at QB? Here are our projected odds on who will lead the conference in passing yards and touchdowns from the current 16 likely starting QBs in the AFC.


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AFC QB Passing Yards Leader Odds For 2022

Here are our projected NFL futures odds for which AFC quarterback will lead the conference in passing yards for the 2022-23 season.

QB TeamOdds
Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers +100
Patrick Mahomes II Kansas City Chiefs +150
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals +200
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills +250
Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders +400
Russell Wilson Denver Broncos +500
Matt Ryan Indianapolis Colts +500
Deshaun Watson Cleveland Browns +700
Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars +750
Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans +800
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens +1000
Mitchell Trubisky Pittsburgh Steelers +1500
Mac Jones New England Patriots +1500
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins +2500
Zach Wilson New York Jets +2500
Davis Mills Houston Texans +5000

Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps.

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AFC QB TDs Leader Odds For 2022

Here are our projected odds for which AFC quarterback will lead the conference in passing touchdowns for the 2022-23 season.

QB TeamOdds
Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers +125
Patrick Mahomes II Kansas City Chiefs +125
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals +250
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills +300
Deshaun Watson Cleveland Browns +400
Russell Wilson Denver Broncos +500
Matt Ryan Indianapolis Colts +750
Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders +850
Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars +1000
Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans +1200
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens +1500
Mitchell Trubisky Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
Mac Jones New England Patriots +3000
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins +3000
Zach Wilson New York Jets +3500
Davis Mills Houston Texans +7500

Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting sites.

Changes Rattle AFC QB Lineup

The Colts will be at least the fourth team in the AFC to start this upcoming season with a new QB.

Ben Roethlisberger retired after 18 seasons in Pittsburgh and a pair of Super Bowl victories. The Steelers signed Big Ben’s replacement in Mitchell Trubisky. The Denver Broncos started Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at QB in 2021-22 before dealing for Russell Wilson in a blockbuster deal. The Cleveland Browns cut short the Baker Mayfield era when they traded for Deshaun Watson last week.


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The Texans aren’t entirely sure on their starter. Houston used Davis Mills, a third-round rookie, and Tyrod Taylor at QB in 2021-22. GM Nick Caserio says the team is “going to start from scratch” at the QB spot.

Wilson and Ryan combined for 27 seasons with their former teams. They bring a skilled veteran presence to the AFC not seen since Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were battling for supremacy. Of the 16 quarterbacks projected to play Week 1 in the AFC, four have started in the Super Bowl: Patrick Mahomes II, Joe Burrow, Wilson, and Ryan.

Wilson and Mahomes each have one Super Bowl ring.

Our Pick For AFC Passing Leaders

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BUZZ: Even with the addition of these newcomers, the AFC is remarkably top-heavy at quarterback. Justin Herbert could sweep both categories. As could Burrow, especially with his revamped offensive line. We like Burrow to take AFC honors when it comes to yards passing this season. If you’re looking for value on NFL betting markets, keep an eye on Derek Carr, especially with Josh McDaniels as his new head coach. The daring could even include a small wager on Trevor Lawrence. The TD battle is another toss-up. Herbert (38), Mahomes (37), and Josh Allen (36) were each separated by one scoring pass apiece last season. Allen has the edge here. Value can be found with Wilson, even in the tough-as-nails AFC West.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.