Packers vs Saints Picks & Week 1 NFL Betting Preview
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It was the offseason of turmoil and turnover in both Green Bay and New Orleans. The Packers survived the scare of Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams moving on, only to return one of the league’s most prolific offenses. The Saints start Jameis Winston but - once again – they will be without top threat Michael Thomas. NFL betting at the start of the season is never easy, so tread lightly with the Saints getting 3 points at “home.”
Here is everything you need to know about the Packers vs Saints odds heading into Week 1.
GET READY FOR THE SEASON: Week 1 NFL Betting Lines & Analysis For All 16 Games
Packers vs Saints Key Matchups
Davante Adams vs. Saints DBs: This is the biggest matchup to keep an eye on simply because the Packers will exploit it every single time Rodgers drops back. Adams remains one – if not the – top WR in football and not many teams can slow him down. The heavy lifting will be done by Marshon Lattimore, but he’ll need all the help he can get.
Jameis Winston vs. GB Pass Rush: Winston looked sharp in the preseason and is no stranger to this Packers defense, although Green Bay did get the better of Winston’s Saints last year. If Winston gets protection, then the offense will thrive. A key element in betting NFL spreads is how effective an OL can be in protecting the QB.
Alvin Kamara vs. Packers D: Expect Sean Payton to put the ball in Kamara’s hands as much as possible, with a significant amount coming as receptions. Winston will benefit from protection not only to throw down field, but also take advantage of Kamara developing some routes.
CHECK OUT : Aaron Rodgers’ Record ATS and Jameis Winston’s Record ATS
Packers vs Saints Stats
- 124.8 – Yes, it was the preseason, but Winston led all NFC QB’s in passer rating. It shows at the very least that Winston has a general idea of what’s going on, and if protected, can make some impressive deep throws.
- 367.5 – Total offensive yardage was good enough for New Orleans to lead the entire conference in offense this preseason. Taysom Hill played QB for a good chunk and the team still didn’t miss Thomas. Lots of weapons if Winston can properly use them.
- 289 – Winston’s passing yards per game.
- 9.6 - Rodgers TD to INT ratio last season, second to only his ridiculous year in 2018. Rodgers is motivated to get out of Green Bay and coming off his second-most efficient season of his career. Watch out.
- 18 – Davante Adams league-leading number of TDs last year. The highest total in the NFL since Randy Moss in 2007. Adams put the entire league on skates last year, wasting no time as he torched the Vikings in week 1 for 14/156/2.
Packers vs Saints Player Props To Consider
Aaron Rodgers, Over 282.5 Pass Yards
Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Packers have the best QB/WR tandem in the NFL and will throw to Adams all day. Either the damage will be done early on, or Rodgers will be in a shootout with the Saints, both pushing this total over.
Robert Tonyan, Anytime TD
Odds: +150 on DraftKings
Tonyan was targeted 11 times last year in the red zone, accounting for 10 grabs, seven of them scores.
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Alvin Kamara to get 100+ Rush Yards
Odds: +120 on PointsBet
With Latavius Murray gone, the Saints will try and work Kamara on the ground where they have a rare matchup advantage.
Davante Adams to get 150+ Rec Yards
Odds: +120 on PointsBet
Adams went over the century mark four times in the final eight weeks of last season, three of those times going over 150 yards. It’s all about the volume for Adams.
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Aaron Jones, Under 67.5 Rush Yards
Odds: +150 on DraftKings
Jones will have a tough test against the Saints run defense, but should feast on short swing and screen routes in the passing game.
Packers vs Saints Moneyline
Green Bay opens their season as a decent road favorite (-150) on the ML, while the Saints play the rare dog (+160) to open a season – technically – at home. The pending change of venue disrupts the built-in home field advantage for NO, which plays a major role in making bets on any NFL picks.
I love the Packers especially because they are more of a -200 favorite on a neutral field. Make sure you shop different betting apps for the best return, as sportsbooks aren’t always on the same page. Green Bay moneyline at DraftKings.
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Packers vs Saints Spread
The Pack were favored in 15 of their 16 games last year, going an impressive 12-3 ATS. Between Jones and Adams, it’s simply too much for the Saints to keep up. New Orleans will rely almost exclusively on Kamara early, which may not be enough to trade scoring drives.
Winston can’t afford to settle for FGs – which is an unbelievable amount of pressure to start the season. Meanwhile, Rodgers gets the ball out faster than he’s ever done, which makes for a multi-level attack on the Saints defense. Keep an eye as we get closer to kick as some betting sites may add the hook to get more public action. Give the points at BetMGM.
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Packers vs Saints Total
The Over is the strongest play on the board for this game, mainly factoring in two huge circumstances. First, let’s look at the two offenses and how fast they move the ball down field. We should see plenty of downfield chances by both Rodgers and Winston, but they also will rely heavily on quick releases to their respective RBs.
Kamara should lead the Saints in receptions, and Jones will be busy as an active receiver for the Packers. Trust the tempo of both offenses to get points on the board. I locked in at 50. With so many games falling on that number and combining the on-field expectations, it’s an easy play on the Over at FanDuel
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