By Bill Speros | | 11 mins
How Much Would You Make Betting On Jameis Winston Each Week?
Jameis Winston will be the Week 1 starter for the New Orleans Saints in 2021, replacing future Hall Of Famer Drew Brees and cast of supporting characters including Taysom Hill.
NFL betting experts and oddsmakers watched with interest as Winston and Hill fought for the QB1 slot during camp but had installed Winston as a prohibitive -360 favorite to win the job. Winston will start his first game in two seasons with the Saints on Sept. 12 at home against Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So, how well has Winston performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Winston is 31-36-3 against the spread in his 70 NFL career starts, all with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s a slight rise from his 28-42 record straight up.
Backing Winston A Losing Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Winston ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed Winston each week during his career are down $782.10. Saints bettors will seek an improvement in that return this season.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance, we are using records against the spread for each game Winston has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Oddsmakers place the 49ers among the second-tier teams in the NFC this season. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, New Orleans is priced at +3000 with DraftKings to win it all. Meanwhile, FanDuel has the 49ers at +1600 to win the NFC , and +440 to win the NFC South . The Super Bowl champion Bucs are favored to win the South this year at -240 with FanDuel .
What To Expect From The Saints & Winston In 2021
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Winston and the Saints. All bets in these categories are valid whether or not the Saints play a 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 9 Wins||+110 at FanDuel|
|Under 9 Wins||-120 at DraftKings|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+110 at FanDuel|
|No||-130 at DraftKings|
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The Saints have a relatively soft schedule (22nd overall based on 2020 opponents’ combined records). However, they have several tough road games outside the division, including stops at New England, Washington, Seattle and Tennessee. They also play host to the Buffalo Bills.
RELATED: Check Out The Latest NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines
That means they could get swept by the Bucs in the division and still reach 10 wins on the 17-game schedule, especially with their other out-of-division opponents being the Giants, Cowboys and Dolphins at home, and the Jets and Eagles on the road.
There are no individual NFL futures or prop bets featuring Winston available yet. He is +2000 to lead the NFL in passing yards at FanDuel. Again, the competition in this category is stacked. And Winston and the Saints will be without All-World WR Michael Thomas for at least six weeks as he recovers from foot surgery. Look for Alvin Kamara to be carrying much of the load here, as Sean Payton works to keep Winston from approaching those 30 INTs he threw in 2019.
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NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the 28th story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Winston compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford | Russell Wilson| Jimmy Garoppolo