Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color


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Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color

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The Super Bowl is one heck of a spectacle but in terms of handicapping the game, there are some concrete trends fans of Super Bowl betting can follow.

If you are considering betting on the big game, here are some trends savvy NFL betting fans are sure to make note of, from over/under betting to point spread betting and beyond.

How often does the favorite win the Super Bowl?

In the last 20 Super Bowls, the favorite is 9-11 against the spread.

As you can see below, the AFC had won and covered three in a row prior to Super Bowl LII. They have been the more successful side over the last couple of decades and much of that has to do with the New England Patriots dynasty. The AFC has won 11 of 17 Super Bowls from 2002-18.

The biggest takeaway from this history is that the winner covers the majority of the time. Of the 52 Super Bowls we’ve seen, only nine times (17.3%) has a team won but not covered. The team that’s won has covered nine straight and 12 of the last 13 Super Bowls, from 2006-18.

That gives you a good indication that it’s best to forget the spread and just pick the winner in the Championship Game and go with straight moneyline betting.

Recent Super Bowl Against the Spread Results

Super Bowl	ATS Result	Score	Line
LIV	Favorite	Chiefs 31, 49ers 20	Chiefs -1.5
LIII	Favorite	Patriots 13, Rams 3	Patriots -2.5
LII	Underdog	Eagles 41, Patriots 33	Patriots -4
LI	Favorite	Patriots 34, Falcons 28	Patriots -3
50	Underdog	Broncos 24, Panthers 10	Panthers -5
XLIX	Favorite	Patriots 28, Seahawks 24	Patriots -1
XLVIII	Underdog	Seahawks 43, Broncos 8	Broncos -2.5
XLVII	Underdog	Ravens 34, 49ers 31	49ers -4
XLVI	Underdog	Giants 21, Patriots 17	Patriots -3
XLV	Favorite	Packers 35, Steelers 31	Packers -2.5
XLIV	Underdog	Saints 31, Colts 17	Colts -4.5
XLIII	Favorite	Steelers 27, Cardinals 23	Steelers -7
XLII	Underdog	Giants 17, Patriots 14	Patriots -12.5
XLI	Favorite	Colts 29, Bears 17	Colts -7
XL	Favorite	Steelers 21, Seahawks 10	Steelers -4
XXXIX	Underdog	Patriots 24, Eagles 21	Patriots -7
XXXVIII	Underdog	Patriots 32, Panthers 29	Patriots -7
XXXVII	Underdog	Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21	Raiders -4
XXXVI	Underdog	Patriots 20, Rams 17	Rams -14
XXXV	Favorite	Ravens 34, Giants 7	Ravens -3

Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color 1 — Broncos punter Britton Colquitt (4) lays in the confetti with his baby after beating the Panthers in Super Bowl 50.

How often does the Super Bowl go over?

In the last 20 Super Bowls, the over bet is 9-11. There has been no clear-cut pattern, either, as the last two went under after the previous two went over.

Recent Super Bowl Over/Under Results

Super Bowl	Over/Under Result	Score	Line
LIV	Under	Chiefs 31, 49ers 20	54.5
LIII	Under	Patriots 13, Rams 3	56.5
LII	Over	Eagles 41, Patriots 33	49
LI	Over	Patriots 34, Falcons 28	58
50	Under	Broncos 24, Panthers 10	43.5
XLIX	Over	Patriots 28, Seahawks 24	47.5
XLVIII	Under	Seahawks 43, Broncos 8	47.5
XLVII	Over	Ravens 34, 49ers 31	47
XLVI	Under	Giants 21, Patriots 17	54
XLV	Over	Packers 35, Steelers 31	45
XLIV	Under	Saints 31, Colts 17	56.5
XLIII	Over	Steelers 27, Cardinals 23	46.5
XLII	Under	Giants 17, Patriots 14	54.5
XLI	Under	Colts 29, Bears 17	48
XL	Under	Steelers 21, Seahawks 10	47
XXXIX	Under	Patriots 24, Eagles 21	47.5
XXXVIII	Over	Patriots 32, Panthers 29	37.5
XXXVII	Over	Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21	44
XXXVI	Under	Patriots 20, Rams 17	53.5
XXXV	Over	Ravens 34, Giants 7	33

Other Super Bowl Trends

Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color 2 — Patriots safety Patrick Chung (23) celebrates in the locker room with the Vince Lombardi trophy after defeating the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl LI.

The White Jerseys

This is a little bit of an odd of an odd one but the team wearing their white jerseys has won 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls. The three that bucked the trend were the Chiefs last season, the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018 and the Green Bay Packers at Super Bowl XLV.

Favorites Tend To Cash In

Something to consider if you like betting the moneylines: favorites tend to win. In the first 54 Super Bowls, 36 winners were favored in the game. That translates to 67%. More recently, though, underdogs won six of seven Super Bowls from 2012-18.

NFC Loves The Domes

There have been 20 Super Bowls that were hosted inside domes (full-on domes, not including retractable roofs) and the NFC is 15-5 in those contests.

Defense Wins Championships

Although the NFL is changing to become more offense-oriented, know that the top-ranked scoring defense has defeated the top-ranked scoring offense in five of the six meetings in the first 54 Super Bowls.

Best Regular-Season Record Means Nothing

You’d think that the regular season record might mean something in the Super Bowl, but remember, unlike the other three major sports, there is no home-field advantage in the NFL’s championship game. The team winning the Super Bowl actually had the worse record in 12 of 15 Super Bowls from 2006-2020. In 2018 the Eagles and Patriots had the same 13-3 record.

NFC Dominates Top-Seeded Matchups

There have only been 13 meetings between the two No. 1 seeds in each conference though 53 games, but the NFC has bested the AFC in nine of those contests.

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