2024 Cheltenham Festival Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends

Before you place your Cheltenham free bets on the Festival with your favourite horse racing betting sites, check out the trends of the last 10 winners of the renewal of this race.

The last 10 winners:

• Had run in a Graded race. Four of the last five winners had won Grade 1s.
• Last ran no more than 77 days ago, with the majority last running within 39 days
• Were in the top-three betting favourites
• Had a rating of 150+
• Had run at Cheltenham before

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Were aged seven or eight (2015 winner Don Poli was six)
• Came first or second last time out (exception Champ, who fell)
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase (exception Might Bite)
• Had won on a left-handed track (exception Topofthegame)
• Had won over at least 3m before (exception L’Homme Presse)
• Had won at least one hurdle race (Fact To File)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Had won a Graded race (Topofthegame and Might Bite)

Key Trials From the Last 10 Years

• Two winners in the last 10 years have won the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase in February at Leopardstown (Monkfish and Fact To File). 2018 winner Monalee was placed and a further four runners went on to be placed in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase in 2022, 2021, and 2017. This race is now known as the Ladbrokes Novice Chase. That was won by Ballyburn this year.
• 2022 winner L'Homme Presse was winner of the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown, whilst Gerri Colombe won the 2023 edition before finishing second in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase. Handstands was the winner this year.
• The Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham was previously an excellent trial to follow, having produced two recent winners, but that was scrapped from the calendar in 2024.

Trainer Trends

• Willie Mullins has saddled three winners in the last 10 years, including two in the last four, and trained third and fourth in both 2022 and 2023.
• Nicky Henderson has two wins and four places from just 14 runners in the past 10 years. He has saddled four winners in his career, most recently Champ in 2020.
• Paul Nicholls has a winner and one place in the past 10 renewals but overall has three winners. Stay Away Fay pulled up last year.
• Gordon Elliott is currently 0/6 in this race, but two of those six did place.

Jockey Trends

There are no real jockey trends of note, with the only multiple winners in the last 10 years now retired.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Fact To File went off as heavy 8/13 favourite, so it's no surprise he won comfortably, beating Monty's Star by over three lengths, and he generally fit the trends. Despite being French-bred and only having run in one novice chase, he'd won the Flogas Novice Chase 38 days prior and finished second in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham Festival a year previously.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

At seven years old and trained by Willie Mullins, 2024 Gallagher Novices' Hurdle winner Ballyburn is a strong trends horse. He won a Grade 1 last time out when he claimed a comfortable five-length victory in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase and has four wins from five over hurdles. 2021 winning jockey Paul Townend is likely to be on board, with the only minor concern being that Ballyburn hasn't raced over 3m since October 2022.

Scilly Isles Novices' Chase runner-up Jango Baie only lost by a shoulder in that Grade 1 outing in February, and the six-year-old carries an OR of 153 for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase. He's also a previous Grade 1 winner and has never finished outside the top two in five hurdle races, having won two of them.