Cheltenham County Hurdle Trends

Race trends are the best place to start when looking for the winner of a tricky Cheltenham Festival handicap. We've taken a look at the most important County Hurdle trends from the last 10 years, and used them to find you the best horses to follow when placing your punts with the best horse racing betting sites.

The last 10 winners:

• Had won no more than five hurdle races; nine won no more than three.
• Had won no more than two handicap hurdles, six winning none. Two had never run in one (Saint Roi and State Man).
• Were aged 5-8; but seven were aged 5 or 6.
• Had never won at Cheltenham before.
• Had won a hurdle race with a distance of 2m-2m1f.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Carried 11st 5lbs or less (exception Arctic Fire, 11st 12lb).
• Had never won a Grade 1 race before (Arctic Fire).
• Had run no more than four times that season, six had won (Belfast Banter had 10 runs).

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Finished in the top three last time out (Wicklow Brave and Faivoir pulled up).
• Weren't betting favourites (State Man and Saint Roi both won as favourites).

Key Trials in the Last 10 Years

Surprisingly there are no major key trials trends for this race. The Betfair Hurdle at Newbury used to be an important one but that's not the case anymore, with Faivoir entering but being pulled up before going on to win the County Hurdle in 2023.

Similarly, the Grade B Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown was a strong County Hurdle trial, having produced three winners from 2010-2013, but that has also fallen out of favour regarding winner trends.

Trainer Trends

• The last 12 winners were either trained in Ireland or in Britain by Paul Nicholls or Dan Skelton. Skelton has only saddled 15 runners but trained four of the last nine winners, plus the runner-up in 2024.
• Willie Mullins has been responsible for five of the last 10 winners, and he even had the 1-2 for good measure in 2020.

Jockey Trends

• With trainer Dan Skelton doing so well, it's not surprising brother Harry Skelton has ridden two winners, and so has Bridget Andrews.
• Paul Townend, first jockey for Willie Mullins, has ridden four winners including last year's champion Absurde.

How Did the Trends Do Last Year?

Absurde fit the trends pretty well last year. He was six years old, had only won one race over hurdles prior to that victory last year, and had an official rating of 138. The Willie Mullins horse was also carrying under 11st, had never won a Grade 1 outing before, and was making his Cheltenham debut.

The only major trend that Absurde didn't follow is that he had never won a hurdle race with a distance of 2m-2m1f, with his only prior hurdles win coming at 2m4f.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

There are a few to choose from here, which isn't a surprise given how wide open the race usually is. Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old Kopeck De Mee fits most of the major trends with three hurdle wins coming into this one, albeit none of which fall into the 2m-2m1f distance, and there's a real possibility that he enters the race as favourite.

Another Mullins chance is Ethical Diamond who won his first hurdles race on his fifth attempt last time out at Punchestown, picking up the win over 2m in his second run of the season. The five-year-old has also never won at Cheltenham, having previously finished 10th in the Triumph Hurdle.

Also worthy of consideration is Valgrand, trained by Dan Skelton and a three-time winner over hurdles. At aged six, it has won at the course before but never at Cheltenham Festival itself, and his maiden win was over exactly 2m.

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2024 County Hurdle Result