2025 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2025 edition of the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham Festival? Our team of experts at Bookies.com have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of this ultra-competitive two-mile handicap when making your selections at horse racing betting sites.

The last 10 winners:

• Were not top weight - just one made the first four
• Had not run more than eight times in the last 12 months
• Had run in either a Grade 1 or 2 race previously
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Had won at least one chase
• Last ran at least 30 days ago
• Rated between 136-152

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Carried no more than 11st 6lb (exception Le Prezien, 11st 8lbs)
• Had not won more than three chases (12-year-old Croco Bay won four)
• Did not win last time out, though three of the last six winners did finish in the first three (winner was Chosen Mate). However, 6/10 had not even won that season.
• Had run at least twice that season (Croco Bay)
• Featured fourth or lower on the weights list after declarations (Unexpected Party)
• Had won at least twice on a racecourse described as 'galloping' (Unexpected Party)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Were NOT sent off favourite on the day (seven of the last 10 winners 12/1+)

Seven of the last 10 winners:

• Had run at Cheltenham before - three winning, three running in a previous Grand Annual (Le Prezien, Croco Bay, Next Sensation)

Key Trials in the Last 10 Years

Winners of this Cheltenham Festival handicap chase come from all sorts of places and generally haven't won in that season, so there are no reliable trials to follow. This is because connections tend not to want to show their hand to the assessor.

In the last five years, the trends have altered dramatically, moving away from winners lining up at the Festival after upwards of three months off and towards them having run within the last two. Three of the last five winners had all run in February, and the 2020 winner and last year's victor Unexpected Party had last run in January. 

Handicap chases run at Cheltenham in October, November or December might be a good place to start your research. And don't forget, look back at the last Grand Annual (Croco Bay, winner in 2019, was running in the race for the fourth time), although no horse has won the race more than once since Dulwich in 1976.

Trainer Trends

• Named after his father Johnny, Nicky Henderson loves this race. In the last 10 years he's saddled 10 runners, four placing.
• However, Paul Nicholls is the trainer to follow – he’s won this race four times in all, more than any other trainer, including twice in the last 10 years.
• Dan Skelton saddled the 2024 winner and also had a placed horse in 2023.
• Trainers based in Ireland have had their fair share of good fortune in this race too, winning four of the last 10.

Jockey Trends

• In true Cheltenham Festival handicap style, this isn’t a race that tends to be dominated by a small group of riders.
• Only Kielan Woods has won the Grand Annual more than once in the last 10 years, but it does tend to go to a professional, rather than a claiming rider.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Unexpected Party was a solid trends pick with only 10st 10lb to carry, Grade 1 and 2 runs in the recent past and only previous win had come at a galloping left-handed track. However, he bucked the recent trend of having had at least two wins on a galloping track and being fourth or lower in the weights for the race. 

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

This is a tricky event, like all Cheltenham handicaps, but applying the trends does whittle the current entries down to four key picks at Cheltenham betting sites: Last year's winner Unexpected Party, last year's second Libberty Hunter, Calico and Traprain Law.

This foursome ticks every trends box from the last 10 winners and almost all of the other trends too, with Unexpected Party, Libberty Hunter and Calico all having previous course-winning form. Unexpected Party is likely to be a marked horse this time around, so the bigger priced Calico - also from the Skelton yard - could be one to look out for with the weights switched around from last year with Unexpected Party and Libberty Hunter.