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Arkle Novices' Chase 2023 Trends

Jessica Lamb for Bookies.com

Jessica Lamb  | 8 mins

Arkle Novices' Chase 2023 Trends

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Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 2023 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2023 edition of the Arkle Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of the two-mile Grade 1 novice event.

The last 10 winners:

  • Won on their last start.
  • Won at least once over fences (six were unbeaten)
  • Had won previously under the same rider.
  • Had winning chase form on a left-handed track.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Won or placed in a Grade 2 race or better (exception Duc Des Genievres.
  • Had only four or less starts over fences (Put The Kettle On).
  • Had at least one previous run at Cheltenham (Un De Sceaux), while five of the last 10 winners had already won at the course.
  • Aged six or seven (eight-year-old Edwardstone).

Key Arkle Chase Trials from the last 10 years

  • The Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton in December, though run on a right-handed course, is growing as trial, with three winners in the last 10 years (Simonsig 2013, Shishkin 2021 and Edwardstone 2022). Each of those Arkle winners won the Wayward Lad, and the two most recent winners won one more Grade 1 novices' chase before Cheltenham. The 2022 Wayward Lad winner was Boothill, but connections said in December he will not run in the Arkle.
  • The Irish Arkle, run in early February, is a key trial with three winners (all trained by Willie Mullins) and four places coming from the race in the last 10 years. Energumeme won the Irish Arkle in 2021 but skipped Cheltenham to win at Punchestown in April. The 2022 Irish Arkle winner, Blue Lord, finished second in the Arkle at Cheltenham. El Fabiolo won the race in 2023.
  • 2020 Arkle winner Put The Kettle On won the Grade 2 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham in November 2019, but didn’t run again until the Festival in March. Eldorado Allen won the same race in 2020 and finished second in the 2021 Arkle at 33/1. It was won by Third Time Lucki in 2021, who did not run at Cheltenham. The 2022 winner was Banbridge, trained in Ireland by Joseph O'Brien.

Trainer Trends

  • With seven winners between them in the last 10 years, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have dominated recent Arkle Chases and the trend has every chance of continuing given Henderson is responsible for red-hot market leader Jonbon.
  • David Pipe, Alan King and Henry de Bromhead are the other trainers to have won the race in the last 10 years.
  • Keep an eye on anything that could potentially head for the Arkle that is trained by Joseph O’Brien. He saddled the Arkle Chase runner-up in 2019 and 2020 and has not had a runner since.

Jockey Trends

  • Legendary riders Barry Geraghty and Ruby Walsh have dominated this race since 2012 but both are now retired.
  • Nico de Boinville has a fine record with two winners and two places from just four Arkle outings.
  • Aidan Coleman has a win (Put The Kettle On) and a place from just five Arkle rides.

How did the trends do last year?

Blue Lord went straight to the top of the ante-post betting for the Arkle Chase after winning the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at Leopardstown's Dubling Racing Festival and looked the one to beat on all known form and trends at Cheltenham.

The Willie Mullins-trained star was unbeaten in three chase runs, all on galloping tracks, and the latest two on left-handed courses. He finished second.

The winner Edwardstone also fit all the key trends, but was considered a weaker selection than Blue Lord owing to the trials he had won and that he wasn't trained by top race trainers Mullins and Henderson.

He was also aged 8, which is off the trends, but on the day defied those negatives to prove unshakeable in a hectic renewal of the Arkle.

He's also gone on to prove he really is among the best two-mile chasers with victory in the 2022 Tingle Creek at Sandown.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

Applying the key Arkle Novices' Chase trends narrows the possible field to two horses of interest.

Leading them with all the key trends boxes ticked is Jonbon, last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle second, who is trained by one of the Arkle's leading trainers, Nicky Henderson.

He's unbeaten in three runs over fences, including victory on a left-handed course and in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown. In fact, in eight lifetime races, he has only been beaten once, by stablemate Constitution Hill, who won't be taking part in this race.

Next-best is the Irish Arkle winner El Fabiolo, representing the race's other top trainer, Willie Mullins.

The six-year-old has won his two chases by a combined 29 lengths, both wins coming on galloping tracks, one left-handed and one right-handed.

This pair of superstars met at Aintree last spring in a Grade 1 novice hurdle and Jonbon won by a neck.

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2022 Arkle Novices' Chase Result

Position Name Price Trainer Jockey
1st Edwardstone 5/2f Alan King Tom Cannon
2nd Gabynako 25/1 Gavin Cromwell Keith Donoghue
3rd Blue Lord 4/1 Willie Mullins Paul Townend

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

About the Author

Jessica Lamb is a multi-media journalist who specializes in horse racing, cycling and sports betting and has worked on desks at the Racing Post and Irish Sun newspapers.