Arkle Novices' Chase Trends: Cheltenham Festival 2025

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 2025 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2025 edition of The My Pension Expert Arkle Novices’ Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookies.com have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of the two-mile Grade 1 novice event.

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Of the Last 10 Winners:

• All 10 had won at least once over fences (six were unbeaten).
• All 10 had won previously under the same rider.
• Nine were either 6 or 7 years old (Edwardstone 8).
• Nine won on their last start (Gaelic Warrior - Unseated).
• Nine had winning chase form on a left-handed track (Gaelic Warrior unseated on only attempt).
• Nine won or placed in a Grade 2 race or better (Duc Des Genievres).
• Nine had four or less starts over fences (Put The Kettle On).
• Eight went off favourite (Put the Kettle on 16/1, Duc Des Genievres 5/1).
• Eight had run at Cheltenham before. If they hadn’t, were trained by Willie Mullins (Un De Sceaux and El Fabiolo).

Key Arkle Chase Trials From the Last 10 Years

The Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton in December, though run on a right-handed course, is growing in status as one of the key trials for the Arkle with three winners thrown up since 2013 (Simonsig 2013, Shishkin 2021 and Edwardstone 2022). Each of those Arkle winners won the Wayward Lad, and the two most recent winners won one more Grade 1 novices' chase before rocking up at Cheltenham. The 2022 Wayward Lad winner was Boothill, but he did not run in the Arkle. The 2023 winner was Master Chewy, but he was well-beaten subsequently in a Grade 2 at Lingfield. Sir Gino won the race in fine style in 2024 and went favourite for the Arkle following the display. Unfortunately injury has ruled him out for the remainder of the season.

The Irish Arkle, run in early February, is a key trial with four winners, who were all trained by Willie Mullins, and four places coming from the race in the last 10 years. Energumeme won the Irish Arkle in 2021 but skipped Cheltenham to win at Punchestown in April. The 2022 Irish Arkle winner, Blue Lord, finished second in the Arkle at Cheltenham. El Fabiolo won both races in 2023. Stablemate It Etait Temps won in 2024. Current favourite for the 2025 Arkle, Majborough won the Irish equivalent this year and could give this trend a boost.

2020 Arkle winner Put The Kettle On won the Grade 2 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham in November 2019, but didn’t run again until the Festival in March. Eldorado Allen won the same race in 2020 and finished second in the 2021 Arkle at 33/1. It was won by Third Time Lucki in 2021, who did not run at Cheltenham, nor did 2022 winner Banbridge. It was won by Homme Public in 2023, and he’s since been beaten in a handicap. The 2024 edition looks like a poor renewal, and it would even be a surprise to see anything which ran in the race turn up on the day.

Trainer Trends

Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have dominated recent Arkle Chases, with eight winners between them in the last 10 years (six of them for Mullins). Alan King and Henry de Bromhead are the only other trainers to have won the race in the last 10 years.

You should keep a close eye on anything that Alan King runs. The trainer has only entered seven runners in the race since 2004 and has picked up the trophy three times. Winning with Voy Por Ustedes, My Way De Solzen and Edwardstone.

Jockey Trends

Predictably Ruby Walsh and Paul Townend have great records in the race, but it also goes to show you should be backing the shortest priced Willie Mullins runner in the race. If a Mullins horse has won the race in the last ten years it has done so with the stable's top jockey on board.

Nico de Boinville also has a fine record in the Arkle with two winners and two places from just four Arkle rides.

Aidan Coleman has a win (Put The Kettle On) and a place from just five Arkle rides.

Paul Townend got his third win last year on Gaelic Warrior.

How Did the Trends Do Last Year?

Applying the key trends whittled the field down to only three main protagonists, JPR One, Quixilios and Il Etait Temps. They finished seventh, eighth and third respectively, with the trend-breaking Gaelic Warrior picking up the spoils and demolishing the field by 8 lengths. 

However, he was still trained by Willie Mullins, ridden by the stable's number one jockey and went off favourite for the race. Unseating his rider on his only chase start on a left handed track in his Cheltenham prep race meant he didn't fit a number of the key trends. In fact he was the first horse to win the race who didn't win his last start for 15 years, and was the first since 2002 to win who unseated or fell on his previous start before the Festival.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

Applying the key Arkle Novices' Chase trends would have narrowed down the possible field to two main horses of interest - the current favourite Majborough and the injured Sir Gino.

Majborough ticks most of the key trends boxes as he is trained by one of the race’s most successful trainers in Willie Mullins, will in all likelihood go off favourite for the race, and won one of the Key Trials in the Irish Arkle last time out. That win was a left-handed chase and also means he comes into the Cheltenham Festival unbeaten over fences.

Although he will not have Paul Townend on board, the trend of the top stable jockey winning for Willie Mullins can probably be ignored this year, as Townend probably would choose to ride him if he had the option. Instead Mark Walsh gets the plum job as he is the retained rider for JP McManus.

The only real question mark is over his age. five year olds do not have the greatest record in the Arkle since the weight for age allowance was scrapped in 2008. However, quite simply not many five years olds are this good.

The other trends pick looked like it would be Sir Gino, who has a profile very similar to Majborough. Sir Gino would also have come into the race unbeaten over fences with a left handed chase win to his name, backed by a trainer and jockey with a great record in the race. The betting at the time of his injury also suggested he was going to go off as odds-on favourite, and it would have been one of the races of the meeting if both had turned up.

Despite very slight reservations about his age, Majborough fits the bill and is now the standout pick.

2025 Arkle Chase Odds

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