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2023 Randox Grand National Trends

Adam Kenny for Bookies.com

Adam Kenny  | 6 mins

2023 Randox Grand National Trends

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2023 Randox Grand National - Big Race Details

Date: Saturday, April 15th

Course: Aintree

Status: Grade 3 (Handicap)

Distance: 4m 2.5f (4m, 2f 74yds)

Age: 7yo+

Prize fund: £1,000,000 (£561,300 to the winner)

Live on: ITV and RacingTV at 5.15pm

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Randox Grand National - Key Trends

  • Age range: Since the turn of the century, only two horse outside of the 8-11 age range has won the Grand National. Six of the last seven winners have been aged eight or nine.
  • Experience edge: Every winner in the last decade bar one had already run at least ten times over fences. Last year's winner, Noble Yeats, being the exception.
  • KEY STAT - Avoid the long-layoffs: 29 of the last 30 winners ran within the previous 55 days, while 23 of the last 29 ran within 34 days!
  • National newbies: 12 of the last 14 Grand National winners were having their first run in this unique race.
  • Luck of the Irish: 17 of the last 22 winners were Irish-bred, although not necessarily trained in Ireland.
  • Mares don’t do well: 13 mares have won the Grand National but the last one was way back in 1951 - 72 years ago!
  • Watch out for hurdlers: 9 of the last 17 winners had run at least once over hurdles earlier that season.
  • Stamina sway: 27 of the last 31 Grand National winners had won at least one chase over three miles or further.
  • Graded performer: Since the turn of the century, every Grand National winner bar one had been at least placed in a Grade 3 contest or higher.
    • Track Our Daily Tipping Column Here
    • Find Brian Hayes' Racing Column Here
    • Read Donn McClean's Horses To Follow

Trainer Trends

Nicky Henderson has trained more winners than anyone at the three-day Aintree meeting, the six-time champion trainer is still searching for his first Grand National winner. Zongalero, his first runner in the race in 1979, finished second and remains to this day the closest he has come to landing the big prize.

Gordon Elliott has won the race three times since 2007, including in 2019 and 2020 with Tiger Roll, and he has a strong squad for 2023. As many as 13 of the runners could be Elliott's, though that's likely to end up in single digits. Cheltenham Festival winner Delta Work looks to be his best chance.

Irish trainers have done particularly well in the race since the turn of the century, winning the race 12 times, including five of the last six.

High-profile British trainers like Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies and David Pipe have all struck with a winner in recent years.

Jockey Trends

Rachael Blackmore became the first female rider to win the Grand National when she steered Minella Times to an emphatic success in 2021, but can her mount was badly hampered and brought down in the race last year.

Davy Russell is the only jockey still riding to have won the race more than once and, with Gordon Elliott having such a strong hand this time around, another win before retiring, for good this time, can't be ruled out.

2023 Randox Grand National - Which Horses Fit The Trends This year?

Last year's winner, Noble Yeats, is bang up against it if he is going to follow up off his new, higher mark. He'll be carrying a pound less than the top weight, but that's close enough. No horse has carried top weight victory since Red Rum in 1974. Cross the reigning champ off your lists.

Five-time Grade 1-winning chaser Delta Work looks a fascinating contender having bounced won the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival for the second year running. 

He fits all the key trends, is the right age and is trained by a man - Gordon Elliott - who knows what is required to win this race.

The question with him is simply, will one of his rivals be better handicapped? He is well worth his 159 rating but it means he’s high enough in the weights and that might just prove his undoing. He is rock-solid though.

Any Second Now is a popular selection at horse racing betting sites, having been placed in the race in each of the last two years. But he carries top weight and can be ruled out on that basis. 

It often pays to keep an eye on Grand National entries that have done some racing over hurdles that season as it indicates that connections have been looking to protect their handicap mark.

One such runner is Longhouse Poet, who has been campaigned with this race in mind all season. This 9-year-old fits all the key trends thanks to a three-mile point success, 10 career chase starts and a pair of wins this season, including over hurdles at Limerick in December.

He’s got Grand National experience having finished sixth in the race last year. He's Irish-bred and trained, is set to carry a nice racing weight and appears to tick every box from a trends point of view. 

Previous Grand National Winners

  • 2022 Noble Yeats (50/1) Trainer: Emmett Mullins, Jockey: Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
  • 2021 Minella Times (11/1) Trainer: Henry De Bromhead, Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
  • 2020 No Race
  • 2019 Tiger Roll (4/1F) Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Davy Russell
  • 2018 Tiger Roll (10/1) Trainer Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Davy Russell
  • 2017 One For Arthur (14/1) Trainer: Lucinda Russell, Jockey: Derek Fox
  • 2016 Rule The World (33/1) Trainer: M F Morris, Jockey: David Mullins
  • 2015 Many Clouds (25/1) Trainer: Oliver Sherwood, Jockey: Leighton Aspell
  • 2014 Pineau De Re (25/1) Trainer: Dr Richard Newland, Jockey: Leighton Aspell
  • 2013 Auroras Encore (66/1) Trainer: Sue Smith, Jockey: Ryan Mania

About the Author

Adam has worked in online betting for pretty much his entire adult life. Having spent over a decade working for some of the biggest online bookmakers in their operations and content teams, NFL and fantasy NFL are Adam's main focus, but there's always room for some golf, horse racing and soccer, particularly soccer card markets.