Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends for 2025 Cheltenham Festival

2025 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Trends

If you struggling to find the right horse to back in the Fred Winter on your horse racing betting sites at this year's Cheltenham Festival, Bookies.com is the right place for you. We have collated all of the data from the last 10 renewals of the race formerly known as The Boodles to help you make the most out of your Cheltenham free bets.

The last 10 winners:

• Had not won a Graded hurdle
• Had never run at Cheltenham before
• Did not run in a handicap last time out
• Had run in no more than six hurdle races
• Had won no more than two hurdle races - two were maidens
• Did not carry top weight (racecard number one form reads: 0028F060PP)

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Were not favourite for the race (Band of Outlaws the exception)
• Were rated 125 or higher (Lark In The Mornin was 122)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Had last run in the same year, with seven having last run fewer than 33 days ago (Exceptions were Jeff Kidder and Diego Du Charmil, who last ran in December and November)
• Had won a race that season but no more than two (Diego Du Charmil and Lark In The Mornin were maidens)

Key Trials in the last 10 years

• The Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Novices' Hurdle at Kempton has produced one winner (Flying Tiger) and no placed horse in the past 10 years.
• The Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown has thrown out one winner (Flaxen Flare) and two placed horses in the past 10 years. The higher-class juveniles that run in this race tend to head to the Triumph Hurdle instead.
• Four of the last six winners of the Fred Winter ran in the Rated Hurdle at Naas in February. Band Of Outlaws, Aramax, and Brazil won that race, while Jazzy Matty was third in it before his Cheltenham success. Keep an eye on anything that ran in that race this year.

Trainer Trends

• Paul Nicholls is brilliant to follow here, having saddled three winners and eight placed horses from 26 runners in the past 12 years.
• Gordon Elliott has won three of the last seven editions and four in all. Elliott also trained the third and fourth in 2020.
• Joseph O'Brien won the race last year - his second win in the race in the last six years.
• Willie Mullins has never trained the winner of this race.
• Trainers based in Ireland have won the last seven renewals.

Jockey Trends

Only Mark Walsh has won the race more than once in the last 10 years, landing the 2020 and 2022 renewals.

How Did The Trends do Last Year?

Last year, history pointed towards Miss Manzor (finished fifth) and Eagle Fang (12th), so it wasn't the best year for trends. 

Lark In The Mornin was a tough one to find, by virtue of being a thrice-raced maiden over hurdles, with a mark of 122. Having your previous run to the Fred Winter in a maiden hurdle and failing to win isn't usually the mark of a winner of this race. He also dodged all of the traditional trials for the race and wasn't one that made any appeal, as far as trends go. 

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

Applying the major trends to this race can help narrow the field significantly. We're looking for Irish-trained runners rated 125 or more, who aren't top weight and whose last run wasn't in a handicap. That leaves around eight horses to focus on, with some standing out more than others. 

Naturally Nimble represents the same connections as last year's winner, and has had an ideal prep for the race. Depending on who lines up, he could end up top weight, which would be a massive negative.

The key trial for this race is the Rated Hurdle at Naas in February, which has produced four winners of the Fred Winter, including 2023 winner Jazzy Matty, who was only third in that Naas contest. Murcia was second in the 2025 running of the Naas race, and ticks every other box in terms of handicap rating and position in the market. Murcia is trained by the all-conquering Willie Mullins, who has never trained the winner of this race, so it may be best to look elsewhere. 

Holy See (fourth at Naas) could be one to focus on. Rated 125 and with three hurdle runs under his belt, he should have a nice, low racing weight on the day. Ephesus (third at Naas) is a huge price and similarly meets a lot of the trends criteria. Rated 121, he'd need to repeat Lark In The Mornin's feat of being rated less than 125, but he's an interesting runner all the same, having been rated in the high-80s on the flat.

2025 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Odds