Triumph Hurdle Trends and Free Bets for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

2025 Triumph Hurdle Trends

The Triumph hurdle is often something of a puzzle at the Cheltenham Festival but a popular race to use Cheltenham free bets on all the same. Featuring young, unexposed horses, some with a flat background, others who started their careers in France, it can be a tricky one to figure out. Here are some of the key Triumph Hurdle trends to be aware of before placing your bets at horse racing betting sites:

The last 10 winners:

• Finished in the first four on their last run, seven winning, including five of the last seven
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Last ran over hurdles, no more than 48 days ago, i.e. in late January or early February
• Had won all outings at Cheltenham, if they had run at the course before
• Had run up to five times over hurdles - five were unbeaten

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle race (exception Pentland Hills won maiden hurdle)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Were not fillies, despite 19 female runners, including a Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (exceptions Lossiemouth and Burning Victory)

Flat racing form

Five of the last 10 Triumph Hurdle winners had run in flat races before switching to hurdles; Vauban, Burning Victory, Pentland Hills, Farclas and Ivanovich Gorbatov. This is what they had in common:

• They had each run at least three times on the flat - but only one had run more than five times
• They had all won at least once - but no more than twice
• Each had won over no less than 1m3f - but no more than 1m7f, with 1m4f being the sweet spot
• Three of the five had only run on the flat in France
• Two had won handicaps but most had not run in one
• Only Vauban had won, or run in, a Listed race

So when looking at contenders with flat form, pay attention to those that have won over at least 1m3f, preferably in France and not in handicaps, but not more than twice. It pays only to consider those that have run a maximum of five times on the flat also. Pentland Hills was a blip in that trend with his 11 runs, but he had still only won twice.

Key Trials in the last 10 years

Five of the last 10 winners last ran in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in early February (Quilixios, Farclas, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Vauban and Lossiemouth). However, only Quilixios and Vauban won that race before Festival glory, and every Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner in the last 13 years has run in the Triumph next. Five of them have been placed, and a further four Triumph placings were filled by other Spring Juvenile runners. Hello Neighbour won the trial in 2025.

The Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in December is another Grade 1 contest that attracts some of the best juveniles, like 2016 winner Defi Du Seuil. 2019 and 2021 winners Allmankind and Adagio were placed in the Triumph the same season, but the 2021 winner could only finish sixth. The 2023 winner, Salver, finished third in last year's Triumph. Nietzsche Has won the Chepstow race in 2024.

The Grade 3 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in January has produced one winner (Defi Du Seuil). The 2024 winner didn't run in the Triumph. East India Dock won in 2025.

Trainer Trends

• Nicky Henderson boasts a massive 20% strike rate in the Grade 1, having saddled two winners and four placed horses from only 10 runners in the last 10 years. In 2015 he had the 1-2-3. In his career, he's saddled seven winners. No other trainer has more.
• Philip Hobbs, now training in tandem with Johnson White, has won the race three times since the turn of the century, most recently with Defi Du Seuil in 2017.
• Gordon Elliott boasts an 18% strike rate in the Triumph Hurdle, having saddled two winners and four placed horses from just 11 runners overall.
• Willie Mullins first won the race in 2002 and did not saddle another winner until 2020, but he followed up in 2022, 2023 and 2024. He saddled the first two last year.
• Seven of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Jockey Trends

With five-time winner Barry Geraghty now retired, Paul Townend has taken over as the jockey to follow, with three wins in the last five renewals for trainer Willie Mullins.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Leopardstown's Spring Juvenile Hurdle was the key pointer for last year's Triumph Hurdle. The race was won by Kargese, with Majborough back in third. That form was reversed in the Triumph, with Majborough coming out on top. Those who swerved Kargese on the basis of her being a filly were duly rewarded.

The Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow was represented by Salver, who outran his price in the Triumph to finish third, best of the British runners. Nicky Henderson's unbeaten star Sir Gino likely would have had a say too, and was a strong fancy based on the trends, but he missed last season's Cheltenham Festival.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand in this year's Triumph Hurdle, but his two fancied horses - Lulamba and Palladium - would need to buck the trend of having their most recent run more than 48 days before the race. They've also managed a novices' hurdle and maiden hurdle, respectively, so it may be best to look elsewhere. 

The two to focus on appear to be East India Dock and Hello Neighbour. They've each won a key trial before Cheltenham and come into this within the 48-day break window. East India Dock has the benefit of a win at Cheltenham, but Hello Neighbour benefits from being trained in Ireland, with Irish horses dominating the race in recent years. 

Those looking for an outsider may be swayed by Lady Vega Allen. She was third to Hello Neighbour at Leopardstown, a race in which Majborough was third before going on to win the Triumph Hurdle last year. As a filly, the trends are against her, but she's trained by the all-powerful Wiillie Mullins. 

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